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We had some more fun in Week 2 of XFL DFS on DraftKings! It looks XFL DFS is here to stay and we have got a whole bunch to recap of the weekend to go into Week 3 on DraftKings. I for sure will be looking back at my process and contest selection to see what mistakes I made in Week 2 (yes they were made 😒), and how I can change the narrative in XFL DFS Week 3.
With more of a sample size to work with, we will review what continued trending from Week 1 to Week 2 and what changed. Let’s dive back into the four games from XFL DFS Week 2. For all stats on the games, you can click here.
Cash Lineup – XFL DFS Week 2 Review
DraftKings Cash Lineup Review
Defense/Special Teams
So things started out great with the D.C. Defenders defense on Saturday. The Defenders and Dragons were the two defenses I was highest on entering Week 2 as I discussed in the Week 2 Positional Preview. The Dragons were the highest owned because of their cheap price tag. They were at home facing backup quarterbacks. The trend here is targeting home DSTs. So far home teams are 6-2 in the XFL. Home DSTs need to be your targets for these DFS slates regardless of contest. They have scored a total of 124 DraftKings points while away DSTs have scored just 34. 3.7x as many points have been scored by home DSTs. Home DSTs are averaging 15.75 fantasy points per game. Away DSTs are averaging 4.25 fantasy points per game.
Right now that sets up the Battlehawks DST to have a great day versus the Guardians who will be at home for the first time all season in Week 3 when they travel to St.Louis. They are at a great price in XFL DFS Week 3 at $3,700.
Quarterbacks
Philip Walker was the chalk QB play basically across the board. Over 60% owned in cash games. And he was fine with 22.5 points. However, in GPPs, you needed Jordan Ta’amu to win in most cases. He was lower owned around 15-16% which is not that low for a quarterback. We knew he was in a good spot for GPPs because the game flow projected them to be trailing and Ta’amu has a nice rushing floor. He has 17 rushing attempts for over 100 yards in his two starts. Landry Jones was around 19%-22% and Cardale Jones was at 15%. Josh Johnson was the lowest owned at sub-5%. Basically, after Walker, QB ownership was flat across the board. The main takeaway here is there is no reason to get cute when selecting QB in GPPs/cash.
With the Battlehawks likely to be favored in their home opener in Week 3 versus the Guardians Ta’amu might be the better cash play than GPP. His price is up to $10,100, but he is still only the 4th most expensive QB. If you cannot get up to Walker ($11,500) Ta’amu looks like the cash play QB. His ceiling may not be there for GPPs for XFL DFS Week 3.
St. Louis is the only team in the XFL to utilize more run plays than passing plays. The Guardians have allowed 58 rushing attempts in two games this season for 258 yards (4.4 yards per attempt). The Battlehawks lead the XFL in rushing yards (317) and rushing attempts 85 for 3.7 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay is second with 291 rushing yards on 62 rushing attempts for 4.7 yards per carry. There’s some sneaky potential with the RBs in Week 3 for both the Battlehawks and Vipers. Matt Jones ($7,500) is the third-most-expensive running back while De’Veon Smith ($6,400) and Jacques Patrick ($4,400) are a bit cheaper.
XFL DFS Week 3
Looking ahead to Week 3 the GPP quarterback will probably be Cardale Jones for me. He is on the road for the first time albeit it’s in LA so I am not sure how much of a home-field advantage they really have. Also, the east coast to the west coast means they will get even more sleep! The Wildcats gave up 300 yards passing last week to Landry Jones, and over the past two weeks have allowed average yards per attempt at 7.4 with a 65% completion percentage. Also, I expect more from the LA offense with Johnson another week healthy getting reps in practice. Jones is the second-highest priced QB at $10,800. The Wildcats have allowed the most fantasy points to QBs this season.
Running Backs
So do running backs matter? Well, Cameron Artis-Payne at 6% ownership essentially broke the slate at RB with 31.1 DraftKings points. No other running back scored more than 14 points with the following guys coming behind CAP. After getting two carries in Week 1, he got 14 in Week 2 along with five receptions.
- Matt Jones – 13.9 (5.62%)
- Lance Dunbar – 12.6 (18.33%)
- Donnel Pumphrey – 10.8 (5%)
- James Butler – 10.5 (24.7%)
- Jacques Patrick – 10.1 (0.42%)
- Nick Holley – 8.2 (12.75%)
- Christine Michael – 8 (1.07%)
- De’Veon Smith – 6.8 (15.24%)
- Jhruell Pressley – 6.1 (11.41%)
- Tim Cook – 6.1 (0.80%)
- Elijah Hood – 2.1 (9.12%)
- Trey Williams – 5.1 (6.38%)
- Kenneth Farrow – 4.5 (4.82%)
- Darius Victor – 0.6 (11.41%)
So the theme here is again targeting the pass-catching running backs regardless of where they stand on the depth chart. In the case of Nick Holley who is a WR listed as RB, he is going to be somebody to continue to target to play in that RB slot. But in Week 3 DraftKings took that away :(. He is back to WR but his price is low at $4,400.
James Butler was the other popular play because his backup (Henderson) was out and he plays on the best offense in the XFL. His workload is always going to suspect, however; just an averaging ten touches per game and he has scored three touchdowns. His pass-game work has also been lackluster with just four targets over two weeks. He is the most expensive running back at $8,500 in Week 3, so I will most likely be looking elsewhere.
Lance Dunbar played second-fiddle to CAP but still saw six targets again in the passing game for a second straight week accumulating five receptions. He is also averaging over 6.5 yards per carry. Donnel Pumphrey led the Defenders in carries and added three receptions on five targets. He will be a running back I will target in Week 3. Dunbar is $6,600 and Pumphrey is $7,000 for Week 3.
As for the cash lineup I built, De’Veon Smith was the guy I was highest on; ultimately he was outplayed by his backup J. Patrick. This was somewhat surprising based on Smith’s Week 1 usage and Smith still ranks second in the XFL in total touches (31). So the real mistake in playing Smith was paying for the most expensive running back with a high touch total, low reception projection, on an offense that has been struggling with a backup quarterback. Despite Marc Trestman’s claim that he uses RBs in the passing game, the past two weeks have not shown that. Just four receptions by RBs in the past two weeks for Tampa Bay. Smith is at $6,400 and Patrick at $4,400 for Week 3. With Tampa likely trailing versus Houston, you have to figure Patrick will see more targets in the passing game.
At this point in XFL, it seems like targets are the better leading factor for running backs and that fact that they may or may not get a ton of carries is seen more of a bonus – which is quite opposite what you see in the NFL. Matt Jones saw 21 carries last week but was owned in just 3% of cash lineups in some spots. If it were not for a 25-yard touchdown catch Jones would have easily busted. The RB you roster needs to have a significant role in the passing game to be in your player pool.
Wide Receivers
As for the receiver position, my main strategy for cash games was chasing the targets from the week prior. So that worked for guys like Nelson Spruce and Eli Rogers to an extent. However, that marked my largest mistake in my cash lineup. Paying up for Rogers at $9,700 instead of stacking Cam Phillips at $8,400 considering I had Walker rostered as my quarterback was a bad process. Even in cash games, you want to have that upside so Phillips should have been the play here after he was the WR1 for Houston in Week 1. So make sure you stack and correlate accordingly even in cash games for DFS. Rogers was at 10% ownership and Phillips came in at anywhere between 50% and 75% in cash double-ups.
As for Joe Horn and Jalen Tolliver they had the targets a week ago and were pretty chalky cheap wide receivers across the board. Which from a value standpoint works, but playing both probably was not the best decision considering yes they had volume in Week 1, but their offenses going into Week 2 were not much to get excited about. So in cash games, I think it’s fine to chase a cheap WR volume on an overall bad offense, but only with one receiver for value. We need to take into consideration the quality of targets in the offense.
For Week 3, potential receivers to chase with large Week 2 volume include Mekale McKay (6), DeAndre Thompkins (9), Eli Rogers (8), Reese Horn (8), Keenan Reynolds (8), Donald Parham (11), Jeff Badet (9), Pierson-El (11), Washington (8). Obviously Spruce and Phillips will be the pay-up WRs to lock into your lineups. Those two are those most expensive receivers on DraftKings for Week 3. As for the receivers listed before them, the prices that stand out the most are Thompkins ($5,700), Parham ($5,300), and Horn ($4,200).
