adam.sardinha1@gmail.com Week 4 of the XFL DFS season is here on DraftKings! XFL DFS Week 4 is here and we have got a whole bunch to cover before it starts. For all stats on the games, you can click here for live XFL stats. Make sure you check out my recap from Week 3 for additional tips.
Game lines via DraftKings Sportsbooks
- LA @ NY (+7) – Sat 2 pm
- Seattle at St. Louis (-11) Sat 5 pm
- Houston at Dallas (+2) Sun 4 pm
- D.C. at Tampa Bay (+2.5) Sun 7 pm
First look at the lines here – three road teams are favorites despite home teams owning an 8-4 winning record over the past three weeks.
Wide Receivers – XFL DFS Week 4
Value Wide Receivers – XFL DFS Week 4
DeAndre Thompkins ($5,200) for the Defenders is way to easy to fit in lineups especially as he emerged as the number one receiver for D.C. in Week 2. He led the Defenders in receiving yards and tied Eli Rogers for the target share lead with nine targets. Week 3 was a disaster and saw Thompkins’ price drop substantially. Expect D.C. to bounce back versus Tampa.
The other real cheap wide receiver you can target is LA Wildcats’ Adonis Jennings ($3,000). Over the past two weeks Jennings has eight targets, but just three receptions. Jordan Smallwood also has eight targets, but with six receptions. Smallwood should continue to be the main RZ target where Tre McBride is more about making the big play. Barnes is the main tight end in LA. Kermit Whitfield also continually got run at the receiver where he also has run the second-most routes from the slot. Overall snaps from Week 3: Adonis Jennings (78% snaps), Jordan Smallwood (66%) and Kermit Whitfield (25%).
Tanner Gentry was activated off IR for NY – so he is another cheap option that could be used. Cheap exposure to the DAL-HOU game would be either Joshua Crockett or Sam Mogley. Both are mixing in as WR4s, but they are cheap and in a shootout, there’s a chance one can come down with a big-touchdown grab.
Flynn Nagel is the cash slot wide receiver play. Houston has been decimated by slot receivers each week (Spruce, Pierson-El, Tolliver/Horn). Nick Holley would be the slightly more expensive cheap option (100% snaps played)
For Tampa Bay, my favorite receivers have to be a combination of Dan Williams and Jalen Tolliver. With a new OC taking over play-calling duties last week they both played 100% of the snaps. They ran pass plays on 54% of their total calls. Tampa Bay is running the most plays per game in the XFL with 72 coming last week. Williams is probably the better GPP option with his price higher and coming off fewer targets than Tolliver a week ago. He has some positive regression coming for him with just five receptions on 11 targets the last two weeks. Flowers also hardly ever threw the ball to Williams and with Cornelius taking over full-time there will not be any split QB play.
Over the past two weeks on Cornelius’ pass attempts his target leads have been the following: Horn (13), Tolliver (12), Williams (11). The LWR spot also lit up the D.C. Defenders last week; both Williams and Tolliver see equal time in that spot.
Pay – Up Wide Receivers – XFL DFS Week 4
McBride is healthy and will mostly like be the most popular receiver on the Wildcats with the injury to Nelson Spruce. McBride just ran 11 routes last week with 3 from the slot.
For NY it looks like Marquise Williams will be the starting quarterback with the potential they mix in some Luis Perez (revenge game) who loves the deep ball. Regardless of who the QB is MeKale McKay is a GPP high-priced receiver I like targeting. The head coach came out last week during the game while mic’d up and spoke about how McKay needs to step up and be a leader for this team. He has run a route on 100% of the dropbacks for the Guardians this season. The Los Angeles defense has allowed the second-most yards per play this season.
Seattle’s pass offense is inconsistent, but they create big-plays. In this case, I am leaning Proehl over Reynolds – Proehl (12-168-3) has out-produced Reynolds (9-129-1) this season despite seeing two fewer targets. Proehl ranks fourth in the league with 2.33 yards per route run through three weeks. Reynolds has just a 40% catch rate but does lead the XFL in air yards. Proehl sees more targets from the slot giving him a higher floor. They also like to target him in the red zone.
Play as many receivers from the HOU-DAL game as you can. This game is going to feature a ton of points. Cam Phillips is going to be too chalky to fade in cash games but to get leverage play, Kahlil Lewis. Lewis is second on the team in targets (19) and has the highest catch rate (78%) with 15 receptions. Lewis has three targets within the 10-yard line.
I also think Jeff Badet has the chance to finally break out in Week 4. Currently, Dallas (15%) has the second-lowest completion percentage of deep passes – regression is coming with how often they throw the ball. With Badet being part of the main three-receiver sets I think paying up for him is a contrarian way to get exposure to the highest-scoring game on the slate. He has also not been on the injury report for the first time in three weeks, so Week 4 could be the first week with a 100% healthy Badet. If you have the salary getting Donald Parham is the preferred option.
Rashad Ross should be in line for a bounce-back performance. He is number two in air yards and nobody has more deep-ball targets (9) than Ross through three weeks. His role is also increasing from his snap share and run route usage. Tampa Bay also allows the most yards per play so there is upside with any D.C. receiver in Week 4.
Running Backs – XFL DFS Week 4
Los Angeles is dealing with a plethora of injuries with their running backs. Martez Carter is the running back that broke out last week for New York but perhaps went too hard with those backflips and finds himself doubtful for the game. In terms of snaps with no Elijah Hood – Larry Rose would seem like the back to go to especially in cash formats where his price is really cheap for a running back that is heavily involved in the passing game. Rose played 31% of the snaps last week ahead of DuJuan Harris. Pay attention up to the game injury report is released.
Darius Victor looks the best Guardians running back and the Wildcats can definitely be run on. New York will also be getting back one of their best OL players in Garrett Bromfield. I like Victor in GPPs to stack with the Guardians DST. LA is giving up big fantasy days to running backs so far this season.
Trey Williams is only $4,400 for the Dragons and is my choice in the three-headed backfield. His price is good and he sees work in the passing game. Michael Dunn should be back for them in Week 4 who is arguably their best OL player. The Dragons are expected to get their first-round LT Isaiah Battle back this week, which is particularly good news given their matchup against the league’s second-worst run defense in yards allowed per carry. Keep in mind that though Seattle is a huge road underdog – they have been leading at halftime in all three of their games this season. This game could be closer than Vegas thinks.
Matt Jones/Christine Michael continues to split work. If Matt Jones were to miss Michael would be considered for the touches in cash. If Jones plays than he would be the RB to target. Keith Ford also becomes in play at 4k if Jones were to miss. St.Louis is a run-first team (58% run rate).
Find a way to play a Dallas running back. Lance Dunbar is probably the better value, but the way they are both involved in the passing game make them to hard to not play. Running backs on the Renegades have combined for 40 receptions – the next best team’s running backs have combined for 15 receptions. In GPPs, play them together. They are both full-time players: Cameron Artis-Payne (77% snaps) and Lance Dunbar (61%) played near full-time roles in Week 3. Only 4 RBs in the XFL played in over 60% of their team’s snaps.
Quarterbacks
For me, the order of quarterbacks is as follows: PJ Walker, Landry Jones, Cardale Jones, and Taylor Cornelius. Walker is a lock-in cash game format, but I like the combination of the two Jones’ in GPPs. Landry Jones has a great matchup versus this Houston defense that has allowed the most touchdowns, most plays per game, and most passing yards per game. This Jones also has not played at home yet this season. In a shootout, I love his upside to throw for 300+ in this matchup.
Taylor Cornelius is the starter in the Tampa Bay game over Aaron Murray. He represents the QB punt play at $7,000. He has some rushing upside and looked semi-decent last week. You can fit a lot of studs in with him in your lineup.
Defense/Special Teams
The one thing I have been consistently able to hit on is team DST and I am rolling with the New York Guardians. With the LA Wildcats coming all the way across the country on a short week, after a huge win at home versus a terrible New York team – this game is screaming “Trap game”. As always I want to target my DSTs at home and with no Nelson Spruce for the LA I feel confident backing New York at home. The Guardians also according to PFF own the highest-graded pass-rush in the XFL. They also come in at a great value price of $3,700.
Also according to Ian Hartitz of Rotoworld.com – Pressure is the only way to stop QB Josh Johnson.
- Johnson when kept clean: 128.4 QB Rating (No. 1 among 12 qualified QBs), 5 TD (No. 2), 8.6 YPA (No. 2)
- Johnson when pressured: 62.3 QB Rating (No. 6), 0 TD (tied for No. 5), 5.2 YPA (No. 6)
The Battlehawks DST – not a great option to pay up for this week – SEA might run the ball effectively the entire game which does not create many chances for turnovers.
