billyr011199@gmail.com In this article, I will break down each position with my top stud, middle tier, and value plays for this NBA DFS slate. I will be referring to DraftKings on pricing. Most picks are for GPP/Tournaments, some would also be viable for cash games.
A seven-game NBA slate to breakdown tonight, with seven of the teams on the back half of back to backs, and two more on the front half. The highest-priced player Lebron James is questionable, so you’re going to want to make sure you tune into the Discord chat rooms with myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff as we evaluate the injury news that comes in and dive further into our top picks.
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Point Guard
James Harden– Stud – ($10,900)
Harden had a five-game streak of scoring 60 or more fantasy points before ending it in their last game when they blew out the Grizzlies. Boston isn’t going to look great from a matchup standpoint, but Harden is too cheap anytime he is under 11K. If Lebron gets ruled out everyone will flock to Anthony Davis and I don’t think you’ll need him on this slate. Harden has one of the safest floors in NBA DFS because he ranks second in the league in minutes played per game.
Malcolm Brogdon – Mid-tier – ($7,000)
Cleveland has been a terrible defensive team as they rank second-worst in defensive efficiency, and they have also given up the most fantasy points to point guards this NBA season. Brogdon has played Cleveland twice already this year averaging 50 fantasy points in those two games, granted Oladipo was out for both. I’m not a fan of the middle-priced point guards tonight but Brogdon does have the best matchup.
RajonRondo – Value – ($4,200)
The Lakers’ last game against Golden State was a huge blowout and Rondo saw 26 minutes scoring 29 fantasy points. If this game against Memphis stays close Rondo could near 30 minutes in this spot with a massive upside for his price. As previously mentioned Lebron is the most important injury news on tonight’s NBA slate if he is out again role Rondo out again as well.
Shooting Guard
Cj McCollum – Stud – ($9,200)
I will have a ton of McCollum on this slate at his price and with his amazing matchup with Atlanta. Atlanta is the seventh-fastest team in the NBA this season, while also being the third-worst defensively efficient team. Portland is battling for a playoff spot and McCollum has logged at least 37 minutes in seven out of Portland’s last eight games. Cj has a 37.5 percent usage rate over the past month without Lillard, that’s 16 percent more than anyone else on the team.
Jaylen Brown – Mid-tier – ($6,900)
Kemba Walker has been ruled out yet again, and with Walker out Jaylen Brown has the second-highest usage on the Celtics at 26.4 percent. He draws a great matchup against Houston who is currently the second-fastest team in the NBA. He also has a great individual matchup as Houston has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards this NBA season.
Damion Lee – Value – ($5,300)
If Jordan Poole gets ruled out the Warriors could only have 2 true guards available for tonight’s game. Lee would have to take on all the minutes that he could handle against a Phoenix team that just lost to Detroit at home. I like Poole and Lee both even if Poole does play because Ky Bowman has already been ruled out making both players minutes very safe. If Poole is ruled out, Lee would be one of my locks for tonight’s NBA slate.
Small Forward
Demar DeRozan – Stud – ($7,600)
Aldridge is out again, which results in DeRozan getting a five percentusage increase, putting him at a total of 33 percent usage. This is not afriendly matchup against Orlando as they are the fourth slowest team in the NBA,but neither was DeRozan’s last game against Dallas, and he scored 51 fantasypoints. This play is because I don’t think DraftKings priced DeRozan up enoughgiven the usage rate and high ceiling he has with Aldridge off the floor.
Mikal Bridges – Mid-tier – ($5,200)
In both games with Kelly Oubre out so far Bridges has seen 38 minutes and is averaging just under 30 fantasy points in those two games. Neither of those games were great matchups as he faced the Clippers and the Pistons. Golden State is a much better matchup as they rank sixth-worst in defensive efficiency and have given up the third-most fantasy points to small forwards this NBA season.
Cam Reddish – Value – ($4,300)
Atlanta has finally seemed to have let Cam Reddish loose, as he has reached at least 30 minutes in four out of his last five games. He started in last night’s game as Dedmond has been ruled out for three games and John Collins moving down to play center opens a spot for Reddish to start at small forward. Portland is also the fourth-worst team in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This game has the highest total on the slate at 234.
Power Forward
Gordon Hayward – Stud – ($7,400)
Gordon Hayward sees a slight bump at home as he shoots nearly ten percent better from three at home. That isn’t the only reason I like him, as he draws a favorable matchup against Houston who has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to power forwards in the NBA this season. I like to pick players from teams playing against Houston because they play so fast. Hayward did just score 41 fantasy points when these teams squared off in Houston.
Robert Covington – Mid-tier – ($5,900)
Since joining Houston Covington has been a defensive monster, averagingover two blocks and one steal per game. Covington is going to play huge minutesanytime the Rockets are in a close game and I expect tonight’s game to be atight one. These two teams did just face one another right before the NBA All-starbreak and Covington scored 39 fantasy points in that game.
De’Andre Hunter – Value – ($4,700)
Hunter has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four out of his last five games and has seen over 30 minutes in all five of those games. Dedmond is ruled out for the next three games resulting in Hunter starting at power forward. Portland has allowed the third-most fantasy points to power forwards throughout this NBA season. This is a great spot for these cheaper Hawks players that will start and see around 30 minutes or more.
Center
Deandre Ayton – Stud – ($8,400)
Ayton has been so good as of late other than in his tough matchups against Utah and Toronto. He gets a pretty nice matchup against Golden State who has the second-lowest rebounding percentage in the NBA. He recorded a double-double in eight of his last 10 games and in all eight of those ten games he reached 30 minutes. With Wiggins probable and maybe Draymond won’t get ejected, the warriors should be able to keep this game manageable, allowing Ayton to reach 30 minutes and record another double-double.
Kyle Kuzma – Mid-tier – ($4,600)
You will have to watch Lebron’s status for this play because if Lebron plays Kuzma won’t make any of my lineups. When Lebron is out though Kuzma sees the second-highest usage rate on the team at 26.5 percent. Memphis has been the sixth-worst team in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency over the past three games without Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke.
Jakob Poeltl – Value – ($3,200)
Everyone just got burned by Poeltl when he played against Dallas. He onlyplayed ten minutes, but I think he will play more tonight in a matchup with abigger heavier center in Nikola Vucevic. Even after receiving only ten minutesin his last game, Poeltl has still played the most minutes on the Spurs withAldridge off the floor. He also scores 1.13 fantasy points per minute withAldridge off the floor. If Lebron does end up playing tonight’s NBA slate couldbe one that lacks value, and this might be where to find it.
A seven-game NBA slate for this Saturday evening, six or seven-game slates are my favorites to play. I will be targeting Portland at Atlanta, Houston at Boston, and Golden State at Phoenix. If Lebron is out Rondo and Kyle Kuzma will be a couple of my salary savers, along with the two Hawks players up above and Jakob Poeltl. The Lebron injury news is something everyone will be waiting on, so check out the Discord chat rooms where I and the rest of the WinDaily staff breakdown any injury news that surfaces and further discuss our top plays. Thanks for reading my article. Good luck, and have a great weekend!
