Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:
At first glance, looking at this slate, what stands out to me is the lack of top-tier pitching which in the context of a Coors Field slate and only 7 games means we likely see lower-cost arms become popular as everyone jams in the 13+ run total between the Rockies and Padres.
All that leads me down a path in GPP’s of looking at the high-priced arms that may get over-looked here today.
Aaron Civale ($9.6K) as the highest priced arm on the slate against a dangerous Twins line-up seems like a spot most will simply avoid as they look to the big bats instead but it likely means we get Civale at single-digit ownership.
Looking back at Civale’s first start of 2020 against the White Sox there are two key metrics that stand out – he threw 100 pitches and generated a massive 16% swinging-strike rate. Civale went deep into his arsenal in that start as he threw all five of his pitches more than 10% of the time and none more than 31% (cutter).
Now picking on the Twins is not the safe route, in fact, it is an approach I would argue against on almost any slate, but on a short slate with some HEAVY chalk likely – I think playing ownership on a slate where pitching is a toss-up is the ideal route. Civale is one of the few pitchers with the K rate and SS% that is actually able to offer us some upside and the fact he will be lower-owned than guys like Dylan Cease up top – gives you an interesting pivot off the chalk.
If Civale makes you uneasy, well this next play won’t make you feel any better but I cannot ignore some of the underlying metrics of Tommy Millone’s ($7.3K) first start of 2020.
Now Millone gave up 4 ER in just 3 innings of work on his way to 4.6 fantasy points but the one thing he did – generated a TON of swinging strikes – in fact he generated a whopping 21% swinging-strike rate in that first game.
The Rays projected line-up meanwhile had a 26% K rate against LHP last season and has 5 batters in the line-up with 25% or higher K rates.
It is NOT going to feel comfortable with either of these arms – but the reality is, no arms you pick especially on DK where you need two, will feel good. So play game theory – find the lower owned plays like Civale and Millone who at the vert least have shows you swing and miss ability and hope that continues here today!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:
Let’s take ownership one step further here today shall we?
If Coors is the chalk, it looks like in early runs of ownership that Junis/Cease are the chalky pitching pair in the CWS/KC game.
So if THOSE are the arms everyone is using – why not go with the ultimate leverage and stack against them?
The White Sox once again are insanely cheap on DK – all in the $3.5-$4K range and 5 of the 6 top batters have .200+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of last season with the only one not in that club being super rookie Luis Robert who has just 23 PA to draw from. After putting up 11 runs last night, I am going right back to the well with this White Sox stack ESPECIALLY if it gives me leverage on a chalky Jake Junis.
Dylan Cease if I had to guess, is going to be the chalkiest pitcher on DK against the Royals which is funny considering he got lit up his first start to the tune of 7 hits, 4 ER and 2 HR in just 2.1 IP against the Indians.
So chalk pitcher taking on a Royals offense that has some serious power upside at the top of this lineup and we can get all that added leverage. The duo of Whitt Merrifield and Jorge Soler at the top of this lineup sporting .320 and .348 ISO marks against RHP so far this season is an intriguing and pricey 1-2 stack at $4.5K and $4.8K on DK that will likely go totally ignored and if Cease continues to miss bats as he did his first start (just 6% SS rate) – this could be a nice two man stack that you get at 2-3% ownership.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
Today is all about identifying the chalk and building lineups with leverage. There is nothing about this short slate, with Coors Field on it, that leads me to believe there are any must-plays so I am all about taking shots in GPP’s and looking to leverage where the ownership comes in.
Take chances today – scared money don’t make money!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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