Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
Looking back at Sunday’s NBA DFS slate, the winning lineup in the $100K to first GPP on DK went with a Wizards/Nets game stack and a Giannis one-off that put up a massive 399 fantasy points. The build is one that I love to employ in NBA DFS as they went 3v3 and one stud – using Levert, Harris, and Allen from the Nets and running it back with Bryant, Brown, and Ish from the Wizards. Getting those huge ceiling games from this game and locking in the stud in Giannis gave them a massive high upside performance and a huge payday!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Monday’s NBA DFS slate kicks off at 4 PM EST with 5 games on the slate and a handful of superstars at the top including LeBron, AD, Embiid and The Joker. We have teams on the tail end of a B2B which is something we have yet to see in the bubble as both Memphis and San Antonio will play again after their match-up on Sunday.
Once again we will likely have some serious value as we already know the Nuggets will once again be without Gary Harris and Will Barton, while Jamal Murray is highly questionable to play.
Looking over this slate initially, my eyes immediately locked in on a game that my heart and recent bankroll are telling me not to – but this Memphis/New Orleans game has all the making of a game that could break open a slate.
Now if you have been in the WinDaily Discord the last week, you have seen that the Pelicans are no longer cordially invited into many of our DFS lineups after burning us the first two games of this re-start but we have to have a short memory in DFS and if you are letting recency bias take you off this game on a 5 game slate, I think you are making a mistake.
Memphis right now is clinging to the #8 spot in the West after their loss to the Spurs yesterday, just 2 games up on San Antonio, 2.5 up on Portland and 3.5 up on New Orleans. To say this is the “last dance” for New Orleans is an understatement – any chance they have of staying in this race to the end requires a win today against the team they are chasing.
Combine the fact both teams here are desperate for a win with the simple fact that these two teams play at top 5 pace metrics in the NBA and you can see why the Vegas total is near 240 and is 10+ points higher than any other total we have. In the two previous meetings this season, these two teams combined for 242 and 250 points so to say this is the game environment we want to target is oversimplifying.
I imagine the Grizzlies side of this game will be far more popular as we saw the Clippers as an example draw massive ownership the last slate against New Orleans with guys like Kawhi and PG13 nearing 50% ownership.
With the huge totals, the tight rotation and the clear 30+ minute roles for the starters here – I would expect multiple Memphis pieces to pop in projections. Considering the pricing, the fact you can get the entire starting line-up on DK for an average price of $6.1K, makes this an easy team to stack.
Ja Morant ($7.3K) is the core play here from Memphis, having played 37 and 41 minutes in the first two games and racking up 47 and 48 fantasy points – meaning he has gone for 6.4x+ in both games at this price point. While the two early meetings with the Pelicans did not see him meet these totals, I will roll with the recent games for the ROY in what seems like a total mis-pricing on DK.
The question then on Memphis becomes what else do you plugin – do you go to Jonas Valanciunas ($7.9K) as the next man in? With New Orleans not having the traditional bigs, I could see this game going small and Jo-Val playing sub 30 minutes once again and instead this seems to set up perfectly for a Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6.2K) game.
JJJ has played 35 and 43 minutes the last two games and averaged 37 FP/G which would put him above 6x value at this price point today. Jackson only played one of the two earlier meetings with the Pelicans and went for 33 FP in 30 minutes and his game translated perfectly to this up-tempo pace with a massive ceiling we can build around.
Dillon Brooks ($5.1K) was the scapegoat on Sunday with a costly end of game foul and makes for an intriguing GPP play as a third stack piece. We saw the floor/ceiling combo with Brooks in these two earlier match-ups as he dropped 53 FP in one game and just 23 in the other as his scoring dependency is going to drive his fantasy output. These last two games the shots have been there, with 36 FGA including 16 from 3 and its that volume that makes him a high upside play with clear 6x and more ability at this price point.
Now the Pelicans side becomes the rub and if Saturday’s ownership was any indication – the large majority of folks have already moved off them,
The $100K GPP on DK saw the following ownership levels on the Pels Big 3 – Lonzo Ball (2%), Jrue Holiday (7%) and Brandon Ingram (13%).
If that trio is once again going to be single-digit owned as a stack in this game spot – I am all-in. The fact that DK actually increased the pricing on them since Saturday’s blow-out may also drive ownership down as the trio is now priced $1,100 more than they were Saturday.
If you are going to have multiple pieces from Memphis here, I just do not see a season to avoid the run back as the ceiling for the Grizzlies is going to be heavily correlated with the ceiling from the Pelicans.
It is a stack spot for me and once that is ideal for 3v3 type builds. Go Morant, JJJ and Brooks and run it back with Lonzo, BI and Jrue and you have $3.3K for the last two spots in your build.
Burn me once – shame on you. Burn me twice – shame on me. Burn me three times? Well, let’s see what happens my friends.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
These 5-6 game NBA DFS slates so far have been all about upside as it has been 350-400 point scores on DK atop the leaderboard so you better aim high if you plan to cash out and that is exactly what I plan to do with the Memphis/NO game stack.
Ownership can really help us get leverage today and if the Pelicans remain a team that folks stay away from, then go all-in. Conversely, if they are chalky – the last two games and the increase in price is also a viable argument to stay away. But to me, the upside in this game outweighs any risk and if/when it hits – well, it could be a GPP takedown spot!
Stay tuned to Win Daily today as our custom projections will be uploaded and updated every 10 minutes during the day as news breaks as my dude Ghost has worked tirelessly to perfect the model that has put us on all the top value each slate!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
