Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
Looking at the arms on this slate, we actually have a ton of viable options with strong K metrics and varying price points but it all starts with Trevor Bauer ($10.6K) against a scuffling Brewers line-up. Bauer has started the 2020 season in elite form – to the tune of a 42% K rate, 13% SS rate and has notched back to back 36 DK point performances against the Tigers. In both starts, Bauer went over 100 pitches and that combination of length and K upside make him the clear cut SP1 in my eyes today.
In the mid-range Griffin Canning ($8.2K) provides strong K metrics with a 25% K rate and 13.8% swinging-strike rate since 2019 and gets to face the Rangers after solid, albeit not spectacular, turns against Houston and Oakland to kick-off 2020. This season, Canning’s SS rate has gone up to 14.3% and while the fantasy production has not been there, much of that is skewed by the lack of wins caused by the Angels pen blowing saves for him.
One arm that may get overlooked here today is Antonio Senzatela ($5.8K) against the Mariners but I think one takeaway we need to have in MLB DFS early in the season is how we can attack the Mariners line-up nearly every time out.
Our friends at Statmuse lay it out perfectly – 10 of the 14 SP’s to face Seattle this season have gone for 10+ DK points with 5 of those outings pushing 20 DK points or higher.
Now, I am certainly not saying Senzatela is going to rival guys like Verlander, McCullers or even Dylan Bundy in terms of K ability, but the early results in 2020 give me a reason to believe we could see a strong game from the Rockies right-hander.
In his first two turns of 2020, Senzatela has put up solid 19% K rate with a 11% SS rate and has turned in starts of 12 DK points against Oakland before a 25 DK point outing in Coors against the Padres.
What stands out to me thus far is his reliance on his change-up which has increased in usage by 10% from last year with a corresponding 10% decrease in his fastball. The change-up gets the highest whiff rate of any of his arsenal and that approach change combined with a match-up against a Mariners team striking out at a 27% rate against RHP this season gives him some sneaky punt potential
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
No it is not my birthday – but it sure as pie feels like it.
We get the Dodgers against The Shark and a Jon Lester day. Giddy up!
I am going to keep this simple – Jeff Samardzija is bad against LHB, surrendering a .220 ISO and near 50% hard contact rate since 2019. The Dodgers have 5 lefties in the projected lineup and every single one has a .200+ ISO mark, in fact as a cumulative group they have a .270 ISO mark against RHP since the start of 2019.
Tonight is a night you pay up for Bellinger, Muncy, Joc and Seager and you can get some serious salary savings if Matt Beaty ($2.6K) is in the line-up as projected.
Stacking the Dodgers with Bauer means we need a cheap stack and oh hello there Jon Lester against the right-handed Cardinals lineup!
The Cardinals have some serious left-handed pop with guys like Tommy Edman and Paul Goldschmidt in the heart of the order who have a combined .300 ISO against LHP since the start of 2019. St. Louis also gives us some salary saving pop with OF’s like Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader who sit at just $3K on DK and Matt Wieters at just $3.3K at Catcher has some under the radar pop with a .226 ISO against LHP from 2018-2019.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
This slate to me is simple – its Bauer and then Dodgers/Cardinals stacks. The decision of my SP2 between Canning or Senzatela really comes down to lineup construction and the salary once we get confirmed lineups for the stacks I want to build around today.
I will be on vacation for the next few weeks but don’t worry -my man Adam Strangis is going to cover MLB Picks and Pivots each and every day while I am away!
Let’s go out with a Lester infused bang tonight!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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