Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
We have a nine-game MLB DFS slate here on Monday which includes a game in Coors Field and some relatively gross pitching, which will likely mean most opt for bats over arms on this slate when prioritizing their salary.
If you have been following along with my Picks and Pivots so far in 2020, you know I have a formula that has been working with success.
Are the Mariners playing? If yes, find the opposing SP and use them.
That is it. Formula unlocked.
In 17 games against the Mariners this season, opposing SP’s have gone for 12 DK points in 13 of 17 games, with 7 of those 17 going for 20+ DK points.
Today Kyle Gibson ($8.6K) gets the favorable assignment, after his 9 K, 22 DK point outing against Oakland the last time out. Gibson checks a bunch of the boxes today – he is a massive home favorite with an opposing team sporting a sub 4 IRT and his metrics give him multiple paths to success as he has a near 13% swinging strike rate and 52% GB rate since the start of last season.
The other arm in this range that will likely garner far more attention is Lance McCullers Jr. ($8.2K) who gets a home start against the SF Giants. We know McCullers has the K upside and swinging strike ability and getting the weak Giants line-up to boot, is going to make him a logical mid-range target on this slate without much pitching to speak of.
There is something to be said about taking two arms who can get you 20-25 DK points on this slate and the Gibson/McCullers pairing to me give you a path to K’s but it anchors to strong run prevention spots as well.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
We have a game in Coors Field so we can always start there, but with baseball hitting being the most variable component of this DFS sport, I think you find ways to pivot off the chalk hitting spot any time you can.
If you are paying up for bats, it is going to mostly be for Coors – which makes paying up for OTHER bats a great pivot in GPP’s and the best offense in baseball is sitting there for the taking tonight in the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers take on Garret Richards, a pitcher giving up over 50% HC to hitters from both sides of the plate and a .250+ ISO mark since the start of 2019.
Richards just faced this team and gave up 4 ER in just 5 innings of work, so going back to the well here with the Dodgers seems like a viable strategy tonight. Every single Dodgers hitter 1-5 has a .200+ ISO mark against RHP since 2019 and the pricing on these guys is going to give people serious pause on DraftKings.
Mookie Betts at $6.1K – are people going to pay that when you can get Arenado or Story in Coors versus a lefty at the same price tag? The rest of the top 5 – Bellinger, Joc, Turner and Muncy will cost you an average of $4.8K which is similar to the cost of an Arizona stack against Jon Gray. Again – the ownership is going to dictate that spending up is reserved for Coors so find a way to attack similar offensive upside without playing the chalk hitters.
Now fading Coors altogether may be a mistake, but that’s largely because of the pricing on Arizona. We only have ONE player that is even $5K in the Arizona line-up and some of the pricing here is straight up laughable.
The fact you can get hitters in Coors like Jake Lamb ($2.7K) and Eduardo Escobar ($3.7K) opens up a ton of salary savings here, all while giving you exposure to the best hitting environment on the slate.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Looking at this slate overall, the lack of pitching and a game in Coors will likely draw some chalky builds. However I think there is a path to paying up in the mid-range for arm and still getting Coors exposure easily with the cheap Arizona pieces.
If the Dodgers, as a result of pricing and Rockies chalk, become under-owned – they make for the perfect late game hammer and a GPP pivot that could differentiate you if the Coors bats underwhelm.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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