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CS:GO DFS: Ghost’s ESL Breakdown 08/25

CS:GO Slate Summary: ESL Early (2am EST)

  • 2 series on DK
  • Best of 3

CS:GO Matchup #1: Renegades (-1400) vs Chiefs eSports (+650)

The first matchup on the CS:GO ESL Early slate is a clear and cut mismatch. The Renegades will cruise to victory here, and I’d be shocked to see the Chiefs steal a map, left alone even have a shot to take the series. The Renegades are ranked as the #53 team in the world and have won all 5 of their past series, while the Chiefs are ranked at #139; the Renegades hold all the map advantages other than on Dsut2, and it still wouldn’t surprise me to see them win there as well. The trio of dexter, INS, and Sico have been on an absolute tear in the past 3 months, sporting K/D ratios of 1.27, 1.28, and 1.18, respectively, while both dexter and INS have absurd KPR at 0.84 and 0.81, respectively. Lock and load.

Top Plays: dexter ($10,200), INS ($8,600), Sico ($9,400)

CS:GO Matchup #2: Tyloo (-1000) vs Beyond (+650)

The second matchup of the Early CS:GO slate is yet another mismatch, where Tyloo sees familiar foe, Beyond. The favorite holds the advantage on all 7 maps here and should cruise to another 2-0 sweep of their opponent, just as they did in their last three encounters dating back to the beginning of June. While all 5 players are viable here, dank1ng is the pay up option you’d want; he has a 1.25 K/D and 0.75 KPR in the past 3 months. While it is impossible to build a lineup of 3 Tyloo players with 3 Renegades, you need at least 4 in your lineup, and I’d highly recommend finding a way to fit 5 with one of them at captain.

Top Plays: dank1ng ($9,800), Attacker ($9,000), SLOWLY ($8,400), somebody ($8,000)

CS:GO Slate Summary: ESL (9am EST)

  • 3 series on DK
  • Best of 3

CS:GO Matchup #1: Ninjas in Pyjamas (+110) vs Natus Vincere (-150)

The first matchup on the main CS:GO ESL slate sees NIP taking on NAVI in the battle of two Top 15 clubs in the world. While we called the Complexity upset over NAVI the other day, I like them to bounce back here with a win over NIP. NAVI bans Vertigo first at a 93% rate while NIP bans NAVI’s best map, Dust2, first at an 83% clip. With Dust2 off the board, I expect NAVI to turn to Train or Inferno, while NIP will likely select one of Overpass or Mirage. Led by s1mple and his absurd 1.40 K/D and 0.82 KPR in the past 3 months, I’m expecting big things from the former #1 team in the world.

Top Plays: s1mple ($9,800), electronic ($8,800), flamie ($5,200)

CS:GO Matchup #2: Fnatic (+125) vs Heroic (-175)

The second matchup on the CS:GO slate sees a surprising underdog in Fnatic taking on a streaking Heroic. While they did manage to steal a map from G2, Heroic ultimately fell short in a 2-1 loss, just as we had written two days prior. Their matchups are typically fairly close, and I expect this one to be as well. FNC bans Vertigo first at a 63% rate while Heroic bans Overpass first 74% of the time; don’t expect to see either one here. FNC will likely turn to Inferno with their first pick, which they do at a 41% rate, while Heroic will likely turn to Nuke first, which they do at a 30% clip. I expect each respective team to take their map choice and for this one to go to 3, with Heroic emerging victorious on either Mirage or Dust2, if they play the ban phase correctly. While stavn makes for a great target with his 1.14 K/D and 0.72 KPR, TeSeS is an intriguing play worth looking at for tournaments for his point/$ upside; he has a 1.11 K/D and 0.73 KPR in the past 3 months and could be a crucial part of Heroic’s gameplan if they want to win this matchup.

Top Plays: stavn ($8,400), TeSeS ($7,000), niko ($7,400)

CS:GO Matchup #3: 100 Thieves (+150) vs FURIA (-200)

The last of 3 matchups on the second CS:GO slate of the day sees 100T taking on FURIA. The latter bans Dust2 first at a 100% rate while 100T bans Overpass first at a 79% rate; both squads tend to pick Vertigo first, so look for FURIA to turn to Nuke or Mirage with their pick and let 100T select Overpass, with Train the likeliest map to be leftover. Although jks will make this one interesting for FURIA, who is a good one-off candidate in the mid-range of pricing, I expect FURIA to take this one behind the trio of yuurih, KSCERATO, and HEN1. The 3 have both great K/D ratios and KPR; HEN1 and KSCERATO should be the first targets considering their success on Overpass, which is the only map we’re guaranteed to see here, but yuuirh is their most consistent contributor.

Top Plays: yuurih ($8,600), KSCERATO ($8,200), HEN1 ($9,400), arT ($7,200)

One-off: jks ($7,600)

You can find me in the WinDaily Discord chat and on twitter @DFS_Ghost!

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