Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We head into Wednesday’s three game slate where both the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers have a chance to close out their first round series against the short-handed Magic and Blazers respectively.
The big news heading into this slate is that Damian Lillard will miss this game (and likely more) which puts the Blazers in a a difficult spot as they try and defeat LeBron and AD.
What you notice tonight is we have two of the three games sporting two touchdown spreads as both the Bucks and Lakers are expected to win and win big and we saw it as recently as last night in Dallas – blowouts can derail your DFS night in a hurry.
So I think the approach for these games is simple – you either stack or stay away.
If you think Portland can keep it close, you take the core of CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and company and you run it back with a superstar on the other side like LeBron James in the hopes you get full run and ceiling games from both sides.
The same goes in Milwaukee – if you want Giannis Antetokounmpo then you can pair him with Nikola Vucevic and hope that the Magic can continue to compete as they have been, keeping Giannis on the court for his full minutes. The Magic have been able to keep these games competitive despite being short-handed so I think yo can continue to roll out value pieces like Gary Clark, DJ Augustin and Terrence Ross as cheap fliers that all have shown 6x upside at their current price in this series.
The other way to approach this – take the pieces from these games that are game-script proof only. The best example of that is Anfernee Simons who will likely draw the start for Portland with Dame sidelined and as we saw in Game 4, he got all the blowout run as well, checking in for Dame mid-way through the third quarter and playing the entire fourth quarter. Simons has started four games this season with Dame out, going for 6x in 2 of those 4 games at his price of $4K tonight on DK and makes for one of the safer value plays on the slate.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Game Stack?
So now where does this leave us? Much as I argued on Tuesday, there is merit to stacking the lower total game you expect to stay close and tonight that is OKC-Houston.
While this game may lack the flashy Vegas totals, it gives us a game environment that we expect to stay close throughout and two teams with clearly defined and tight rotations – and that stability breeds value for DFS in the playoffs.
Let’s not bury the lead here, this game and I would argue – this slate all starts once again with James Harden for as long as Russell Westbrook remains out. It has been fascinating to me to watch game after game go by and Harden’s ownership continues to free fall – setting in at 15-20% last game.
The fact we are getting Harden on 3-4 game slates at this kind of ownership when we have a massive amount of data to know his value when he is the lone star left standing in Houston is mind-blowing and those who faded him last game were reminded of that with his 74 fantasy point outing. His price has only gone up $100 from that game and I would argue tonight, he is the lock and load foundation you start your builds with.
The Rockets continue to play one of the most consistent;y tight rotations in these playoffs – with 6 guys playing 30+ minutes in Game 4. When trying to find the complimentary pieces around Harden, my preference is to surround him with the players that are less scoring dependent and have higher correlation.
Eric Gordon is an interesting case – as if I took out the name of the player and told you that you can get a player who since the playoffs started ranks top 10 in the NBA in both usage and shot attempts per game AND you can get him for just $6K on DraftKings – wouldn’t you just hit the lock button?
The other names on that list? Harden, Giannis, Vuc, Kawhi, Donovan Mitchell and Luka – thats it – that is the list. Imagine getting those guys for $6K?
Now Gordon is almost entirely scoring dependent which presents a challenge when your teammate is shooting the ball 30 times a game, but if you look at the substitution patterns, Gordon always checks out near the end of Harden’s “shift” and checks back in for him so he can run the offense when Harden is out. It is a little nuance, but that stretch alone could push him into elite value at this price tage.
Guys like Robert Covington, Jeff Green and PJ Tucker all make for great correlation pieces around Harden/Gordon as they can get you DFS points without needing the ball.
Covington to me is the one that stands out on DK, as his price as dropped all the way to $5.7K, which is way down from the $6.5K it started at in Game 1 of this series. The minutes for him in Game 4 at 34 where the highest of any game in the series and his ability to rack up peripheral stats alongside Harden makes for an ideal correlation.
The OKC side of this game is going to be very guard heavy with Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder all standing out as great plays in the back-court. OKC has committed these last two games to matching the Rockets small ball line-up and it has resulted in two wins so I do not expect the strategy to change as this trio has been closing out games alongside Lugentz Dort and Danilo Gallinari.
SGA at $7.4K feels like a mis-price considering he has gone for 44 DK points or more in each of the last three games which puts his average performance right at 6x value at tonight’s price.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
With two games that have the potential for blowouts tonight, I think we need to take stands and either full on stack or fade those games outside of the game-script proof value types.
It leads me, much like it did on Tuesday, to game stack the spot I think will be competitive throughout with teams that have a proven track record of leaning on their core guys for big minutes in these playoffs. So locking in multiple Rockets, with Harden priority #1, alongside a few OKC pieces – gives you a build that may afford you the safer floor versus the risky ceiling of stacking up a game like Portland/LA that could see its star players sitting by the second half.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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