Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
First and foremost – this slate will now start at 6:37PM EST as the Dodgers/Giants game has been removed from the slate.
If there is anything the last few days of MLB DFS have proven, it is that the top-tier arms are coming through in peak form after back to back high ceiling outings from guys like Lucas Giolito and Jacob deGrom. It seems at least for now, the pricing on sites like DraftKings have not yet pushed this tier to a point where you need to decide on one ace versus another – and instead, we continue to have ways to go double aces due to some softer pricing.
Today’s smaller 6 game slate which kicks off at 6:37 PM EST is a perfect example of that as we have another clear top-tier option in Max Scherzer against the Phillies.
Mad Max continues to be well, Mad Max – sporting a 32% K rate and 15% swinging-strike rate and he has consistently been pitching deep into games with 100+ pitch counts which gives him a path to a 30-40 DK point ceiling type game with double-digit K’s.
With the Dodgers now being removed from the slate, and therefore no Kershaw or Buehler, Scherzer stands alone at the top and will command significant ownership as a result but I believe with the lack of strong pitching, playing him as your SP1 makes all the sense in the world.
The question then becomes what do we do with our SP2?
Rather than pay up for underwhelming options in my opinion, I think we pay down – WAY down to Sixto Sanchez ($5.1K) against my beloved Mets.
Sanchez is a top prospect with a 100 MPH, a filthy change-up and a nasty slider and well, rather than write about it – check out his arsenal from his first start.
Sanchez generated a 10.6% swinging strike rate in that first game and assuming the Mets/Marlins are clean to play weather wise, you are getting an elite K arm as one of the cheapest arms on the slate.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
The Tampa Bay Rays take on LHP John Means today who is giving up a massive .333 ISO to RHB in 2020 with a 47% HC rate and the Rays will likely throw out 7-8 RHB in their line-up.
The projected line-up for Tampa Bay has a .220 ISO mark against LHP since the start of 2019 and has five players with .250+ ISO marks including Mike Brosseau, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Jose Martinez and Hunter Renfroe.
This stack is interesting because it offers you some solid mid-range pricing with Diaz, Adames and Renfroe all under $4K and I think the price on Brandon Lowe in a L/L match-up at $5.6K will make him an elite GPP target as most will pay the $100 more for Nelson Cruz against a lefty. While Means issue has been righties, do not overlook Lowe in the middle of the stack as he has a massive .500 ISO mark this season against lefties with a near 60% HC rate and absurd 355-foot average distance traveled.
Sitting right above the Rays IRT at 5 is the Washington Nationals who take on RHP Spencer Howard and the Phillies. The sample size is small but lefties have hammered Howard in 2020 to the tune of a .423 ISO mark and with Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Asdrubal Cabrera and Eric Thames in the line-up, this could be another high octane stack that actually works really well alongside the Rays from a position perspective.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
We need to watch the weather. We need to watch the news.
We need to watch. Listen, more games could get PPD as the sports world changes by the minute but all we can do is listen and react. If you want to take the slate off – that is totally fair as well.
As of now, I am going into the day with Mad Max and a Nats/Rays stack as my core and will need to watch the weather on Sixto to see if we can use him as our cheap SP2!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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