Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
After initially having no MLB DFS slates up today, FanDuel and DraftKings have pushed out slates for tonight and honestly – this is a pretty awesome slate. Now there is weather in a handful of spots that we have to watch but there are so many paths on this slate that the pivot options are plentiful.
We have some elite arms on this slate include Mad Max and Zac Gallen who were initially my pay up options as I started to build but then I looked down at the cheap options and boy oh boy – does this look like the slate to pay down at pitcher.
Now the fact we have a Coors Field game with a 12+ total is going to lead people down this path anyways, but there is simply massive PP/$ value in this range and I want in.
Let’s start with Triston McKenzie ($6.6K) who Adam Strangis featured here in Picks and Pivots in his first start and man did Adam nail that one. McKenzie was simply electric – striking out 10 Tigers on his way to 33 DK points.
McKenzie’s stuff is insanely strong, he generated a 17% swinging strike rate on 80 pitches using a fastball that averaged 95 MPH and topped out at 97 with a slider, curve and a change that the used in total 30% of the time to complement his heater.
Expecting 10 K’s again is likely a fools errand, but the stuff plays against any line-up and if the pitch count ticks up past the 80 he threw last game, I just do not think this price is high enough yet to warrant a fade. I mean if this kid is making Miguel Cabrera look silly – I am going to keep riding him today against St. Louis.
This is what I wrote up yesterday and well, why am I going to make life harder – the other top cheap arm here is Sixto Sanchez ($5.9K) who gets a home start against the Rays.
Sanchez is a top prospect with a 100 MPH, a filthy change-up and a nasty slider and well, rather than write about it – check out his arsenal from his first start.
Sanchez generated a 10.6% swinging strike rate in that first game and now gets to pitch in his home pitcher’s park in Miami. The Rays line-up is dangerous so there is some boom/bust potential here but guys like McKenzie and Sanchez are not your normal punt options – these are elite prospects with major league stuff and I am happy to take the discount while I can!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
If you go double punts then you can absolutely afford to stack Coors Field if you want – personally, I think there are equally strong options and I am not sold that this is the spot to Coors. Listen, I love the Padres against lefties but Kyle Freeland has proven time and time again he can navigate Coors and has done so in three starts this year with 3, 2 and 0 ER allowed.
Instead – I am going to use my savings to pay up for the White Sox against LHP Danny Duffy. Duffy is a fly ball pitcher giving up .200+ ISO to RHB this season and the White Sox are well – LOADED with right-handed power.
This line-up has 9 RHB in the projected line-up with a .250+ combined ISO against lefties since the start of 2019 and in 2020 specifically, that trend has continued with some silly numbers including Tim Anderson with an .880 ISO against LHP in 28 at bats.
Clearly that is not sustainable but the data set over the last season + tell you that up and down this White Sox line-up, they can batter LHP. Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenex, E5 and Luis Robert sit 1-7 in this line-up and I want to get 5 of them into my builds today.
All of these power bats have the metrics to make them a viable play – so it becomes more about roster construction and correlation with a secondary stack to me.
What the White Sox lack is a high-end 2B option so finding that secondary stack means I want one with a high second baseman and that led me to Arizona and Ketel Marte.
Arizona is getting LHP Tyler Anderson who has been hammered by hitters from both side of the plate – a .242 ISO to RHB and .351 ISO to LHB. Marte has a .265 ISO mark against LHP and Anderson, who relies nearly 50% of the time on his change-up, has hammered this pitch type to the tune of a .283 ISO and 41% HC rate.
Pairing Ketel with Starling gives you some B2B correlation with two guys who have .200+ ISO marks against lefties and is a nice middle of the order mini-stack that positional wise works alongside the White Sox.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
I LOVE this slate today. LOVE LOVE LOVE IT.
We have high end arms and low end arms and great stacks and all that said – a ton of ways to pivot.
So going cheap at SP is a way to do something that may be popular but instead of eating Coors chalk – pair up different stacks with them and hope the White Sox outscore the chalky Padres/Rockies.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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