Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate
We get a split slate MLB DFS Saturday with 5 games kicking off at 1 PM EST to start our day. The tricky part here – two games (NYM/NYY and ATL/PHI) – looks very unlikely to play with rain scheduled all day on the East Coast.
The other three games look likely to play but keep in mind, Minnesota and Detroit is the first game of a double-header so it will only be 7 innings – which takes me off every single hitter in this game as they simply are at a massive disadvantage with fewer plate appearances.
That does, however, make me more interested in the arms in that game – Matthew Boyd and Randy Dobnak – as the shorter game could bring the complete game bonuses into play on DK.
Dobnak is not the usual arm we would want to target in MLB DFS as he has a low K rate and single-digit swinging strike rate but that is balanced out by the match-up with the Tigers who have a projected line-up with a 28% K rate against RHP this season.
Boyd on the other side of this game basically is the polar opposite – he has the 24% K rate and the 13% swinging-strike rate but gets the much scarier match-up against the Twins powerful line-up.
Going with both arms from this game offers you significant salary savings off the pricey options like Carlos Carrasco/Jack Flaherty and allows you to build a more offensive heavy line-up that those who pay up for pitching will not be able to afford.
One option on this small slate could then be to stack up the Indians/Cardinals and get the ultimate leverage on the two likely highest owned pitchers or you can pivot to a game stack in Chicago with the White Sox/Royals.
The White Sox in my opinion offer the highest amount of upside on this slate against Brady Singer, who is giving up .200+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate this season and with 10 MPH winds blowing out today – this could be a barrage from the powerful CWS stack.
All the usual suspects are in play once again – Anderson, Moncada, Abreu, E5, Grandal, Jimenez and Robert – and we get some salary relief with Nomar Mazara likely to play in the OF today.
The Royals on the other side of this game are a great GPP stack as I doubt many will gravitate towards them against Dylan Cease but I think we need to get a stack in order.
So far in 2020, Cease is giving up a ton of power with .220+ marks to hitters from both sides of the plate and what really stands out is the 6-% fly ball rate to righties with a 43% HC rate/
With the wind blowing out, fly ball tendencies get exploited and with the top 3 hitters on KC hitting from the right side – a Merrifield/Dozier/Soler stack could get us out in front quickly. Dozier and Soler specifically are high fly ball hitters against RHP and both hitters have .200+ ISO marks against the slider, which is the dominant pitch Cease uses to RHB.
I love the idea of a game stack here using the Royals/White Sox and pairing them with Boyd/Dobnak. All this avoids the weather issues on the East Coast and gets us off the chalk pitcher in Carrasco/Flaherty who I think are over-priced today relative to their upside.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate
The Main Slate to me begins with how you intend to attack the best hitting spot (Coors) and the top end arms and it appears at first glance there is a way to get the big bat stacks with a high-end SP1.
That SP1 today is Dylan Bundy ($10.3K) who is sporting a 29% K rate, 13% swinging strike rate and gets the same match-up against a Mariners team he dominated once this season. In that start, Bundy struck out 10 batters on his way to 40+ fantasy points and even in the start before against Seattle where he got “only” 20 DK points – he still struck out 8 batters.
Pairing Bundy with some Coors exposure is far easier than I expected as the Rockies pricing against LHP Adrian Morejon is seemingly asleep at the wheel.
Now the usual suspects are pricey like Nolan Arenado and Trevory Story (both over $5K) but there are some projected starters with insanely cheap pricing that makes this all work including 1B Josh Fuentes ($2K) and Matt Kemp ($2.9K)
The fact you can get a 4 man Rockies stack with arguably the two best bats on the slate in Arenado/Story alongside an SP1 is all thanks to pricing on guys like Fuentes who is an absolute free square on DK today.
The other stack I really like today that will likely get over-looked is the Milwaukee Brewers and much of that is because of how they correlate with the Rockies.
The weakness in the Rockies stack is that they lack the elite 2B and the Brewers offer you that with Keston Hiura who you can then pair with Christian Yelich as a pivot off someone like Blackmon or the other Coors OF. The .344 ISO mark against RHP since the start of last season for Yelich makes him a high upside play on any slate and with opposing pitcher JT Brubaker, sporing a single-digit swinging strike rate – Yelich and company can put the ball in play early and often.
Going double stacks here with Bundy means getting cheap at SP2 and although we don’t have anyone the caliber of Sixto Sanchez here tonight – we have more “solid” options like Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill.
If you land in this range, it is not because you are seeking it out – it is because they are last men in and if they get you 15-20 fantasy points, you will be absolutely thrilled. Cahill takes on an Arizona team he just faced, striking out 8 batters on his way to 24 DK points but keep in mind that was in SF and tonight we are in Arizona.
Anderson is FAR more boring, lacking the K upside we typically want, but he is a ground ball heavy pitcher against a weak Pirates offense who will limit damage and if the Brew Crew bats we stack get him a lead – he could be in line for the valuable win.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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