Jim Thomson 
UFC FIGHT NIGHT.
Smith Vs. Rakic.
WE ARE BACK with another UFC breakdown! Tonight we will target some of my best and favorite targets for both Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting picks. Last week we had some huge upsets that led some of our WinDaily crew into some big paydays. Tonight we have UFC VEGAS 8 Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic and looking to cash big on my favorite plays.
In my UFC DFS lineups, I will have 80% exposure to the Main Event fight with either Smith or Rakic in my lineups. Normally I will have 100% exposure to the Main Event, but this is a three-round fight instead of a five-round fight. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get to it!
Tonight i’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 8 Smith vs. Rakic.
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MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Zak Cummings (-105) (DK 8400) (FD $15) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (-125) (DK 7800) (FD $17).
This fight opened up in Vegas as Di Chirico as the betting underdog. There is a good reason that people have smartened up and started betting that line through the roof, but that does not change my stance on this fight. Di Chirico is coming off of back to back losses, and he did not look good at all. Fortunately, in the UFC, anything can happen, and it is all about stylistic matchups when picking the winner of a fight. Cummings has the experience to perform well in any fight and has the ability to come back in a fight when he is down.
In Zak’s last two fights, he has lost via close decisions. The issue I see here is that he will struggle against Di Chirico’s ground game and takedown defense. Even though Cummings has the power to knock anyone out, Alessio has not been knocked out, and I don’t see it happening here. I think that Di Chirico takes it to Cummings in a close decision win and, in doing so, will put up enough points to hit value at only 7800 on Draftkings.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alessio Di Chirico (-125) (DK 7800) (FD $17). DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Magomed Ankalaev (-315) (DK 9000) (FD $19) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+245) (DK 7200) (FD $12).
This is probably my favorite fight of the night to target and could easily be the fight of the night. This will be a fight that will be mandatory to have the winner in your DFS lineups. Ankalaev is a beast, and so is Cutelaba. Cutelaba is a very aggressive, fast, direct, and straight forward fighter. He will give everything he has in order to try and Knock Out his opponent early and fast.
The issue I see here is that Ankalaev is a strategically sound fighter with both knockout and submission ability. He will circle the octagon looking for an opening to light up Cutelaba. Cutelaba will attempt to force punches that are not the best option at the time and will tire himself out. Ion is a first-round or bust fighter, and this time I think he’s on the Bust train. Magomed will wait out the early storm and take advantage of a tired and gassed out opponent in the second round and will tie him up like a pretzel.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Magomed Ankalaev (-315) (DK 9000) (FD $19) SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET:
Sean Brady (-450) (DK 9300) (FD $20) vs. Christian Aguilera (+325) (DK 6900) (FD $10).
Sean Brady is the highest priced fighter on Draftkings for a good reason. He dropped into the UFC with two very convincing wins over McGee and Naurdiev. Those were not his only two wins. Before the UFC, Brady looked like a man on a mission, destroying everyone in his path en route to an undefeated record of ten wins and no losses and has added two decision wins to his total in the UFC. Brady is a Jui Jitsu specialist and has finished five of his twelve fights.
This is a spot where I feel as if it will be more of the same and should come out and takedown Aguilera and have his way with him. Sean could easily Knock Out Christian in the first round or submit him later in the second round, but either way, my prediction is Brady via finish and should be one of, if not the highest DFS scorer of the night.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean Brady (-450) (DK 9300) (FD $20). TKO ROUND ONE.
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
Aleksandar Rakic (-270) (DK 8700) (FD $23) (Main Event)
Neil Magny (-260) (DK 8600) (FD $18)
Impa Kasanganay (-150) (DK 8500) (FD $17)
Mallory Martin (-315) (DK 8900) (FD $18)
Bill Algeo (RISKY GPP ONLY) (+235) (DK 7000) (FD $13)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s 11 bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Always remember the more rounds in a fight, the higher the fantasy score could be. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
