Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Looking back at yesterday, we argued about taking a stand – playing blowout angles and stacking the close games with the stars and that is exactly what took down the $100K GPP on DK.
Well – the idea did anyways.
The winning line-up scored 330 DK points jamming in LeBron, Giannis and McCollum and a whole lot of Portland/Laker value (4 guys under $4K) and faded the OKC/Houston game which ended up being the blow-out game.
While I was all about fading Lakers/Bucks and stacking Houston (which back-fired) – the logic we laid out is important because you can see how drawing a line and fading spots that underperform is how you get to the top.
Today, the slate is setting up in much of the same way in that Vegas is telling us we have one game that stands out and if we can get it right – we could be staring at a big pay day.
The Clippers/Mavericks have a 238 total which is a whopping 20 points higher than either Boston/Toronto or Utah/Denver but the rub is that the other games have just 2 point spreads while Dallas is a 10 point dog.
So how do we play this?
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Where to stack?
The Clippers/Mavericks is the key to unlocking this slate as we have the star power to set cash lines, a ton of value due to injury but as we saw in Game 5 – massive blowout risk that could leave you on the outside looking in.
The Mavericks injury report is – well – lengthy. We already know Kristaps Porzingis is out while all of Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke and Dorian Finney-Smith are questionable.
Now Burke and DFS had similar injury designation heading into last game and played so I would assume that trend continues but the new injury to THJ is the one we need to watch as it would essentially remove the top two offensive usage plays alongside Luka.
On the season, with KP and THJ off the court, Doncic sees a 3% usage boost as he sports a 40% usage rate with 60 FP per 36 minutes of court time. Now the price on Luka is high at $11.2K on DK and considering he has been held under 50 DK points in 3 of the 5 games in this series may be a reason to argue the fade BUT this is also a player that if given full run can drop the 70+ DK point game that sets the cash line and is a staple in optimal builds.
Now if you are playing Luka, you are banking on that ceiling game much like you saw last night from LeBron James. And if you are getting a full run ceiling game on the Dallas side – it makes sense to run it back with the Clippers stars in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
Kawhi has been as steady as any player in the playoffs with 50+ fantasy points games in every game of this series and we finally saw PG13 get his shot to fall in Game 5 after some serious struggles for ole Playoff P.
I go back to the winning line-up last night – where it had LeBron (71), Giannis (57) and McCollum (55) that drove 183 of the 327 fantasy points (55%) in an extreme stars and scrubs build.
Can you not see a similar path tonight with Luka/Kawhi/PG13 all having ceiling games and then hitting on the $4K/per player value in the rest of your build?
If you opt to go this Stars/Scrubs route then you have the luxury of staying right in this game with KP being out and even more so if THJ is forced to miss as the trio of Trey Burke, Seth Curry and Delon Wright would likely all see substantial court time.
Burke/Curry played 37 and 31 minutes in the Game 4 OT thriller that KP missed while Wright did not see the floor in that game – so it is likely that THJ would have to miss to make Delon playable but Burke/Curry seem like 30+ minute locks at sub $5K pricing.
Outside of the guards we have many of the usual suspects including Boban ($4K) and Reggie Jackson ($3.8K) who is another player we need to watch as Patrick Beverley was upgraded to questionable. If Pat Bev is out, R Jax would be an elite value again as he has put up 23 and 26 DK points the last two games, which would return 6x value.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
I love the idea of going Stars and Scrubs today with Luka/Kawhi/PG13 and by doing so it means we need 5 plays in the $4K range on DK to make it work.
Trey Burke is likely player #1 on my list before we have news but we still need more – however I think we need to get some clarity on THJ and the Mavericks Q tags before we can just lock and load.
I am interested to see what line-up the Nuggets use today as they could present an interesting value in the late-night hammer. Denver opted to close with Michael Porter Jr. and PJ Dozier in the last game as they checked in mid-way through the 3rd quarter and never came back out. Dozier at just $3.1K on DK could be a guy you keep in your punt player pool as a pivot off Dallas if the news does not break how we want it to.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops – we are going to need to be flexible today as we wait on news. Build your core and wait to find the value we can plug and play!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
