Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
After back to back NBA DFS slates where the Stars/Scrubs approach carried the day, Monday’s slate reversed course as a more balanced approach took down GPP’s with 320+ DK points by fading the high priced studs like Giannis and Harden who combined for under 100 fantasy points.
Tonight we get another two-game slate with a Game 7 between the Nuggets/Jazz and Game 2 of the second-round series between the Celtics and Raptors.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Decision Point #1
What is interesting about this slate is that we do not have the high dollar superstars like LeBron, Giannis or Harden which typically drive roster decisions and instead we open to a slate with no players above $10K on DraftKings.
That does not mean we lack for ceiling however as the $9K range on this slate has superstar ability with Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic all core plays in arguably the best first round series in the bubble.
Now we might have a little sticker shock on this threesome, considering back in Game 1 of this series that Jamal Murray was just $6.2K but after going for 82, 68 and 68 DK points the last three games to force a Game 7 – well, you can understand why the pricing has reached this level.
The Nuggets to me are basically a two man show – in real life and in DFS – and you ultimately need to decide whether you make Murray/Jokic a core part of your build here today.
This duo has put up 115 DK points per game the last two games, while no other player on Denver has even hit 27 DK points as all the usage and volume is flowing through this duo. Murray and Joker also provide you the rare duo in DFS that positively correlates as superstars – as Murray is the highest positive correlation play alongside Joker, primarily due to the pick and roll they run so well.
To me this slate hinges on this first decision point – if you are playing Denver it needs to start with Murray and Joker – because the fringe plays here have not shown the ability to work as valuable one-offs
Now the reason I think this has to be your first decision point is because if you are locking in both core Denver plays, then you need to run it back with the Jazz and that likely leads you to Donovan Mitchell.
D-Mitch has been a one man wrecking crew for Utah in this series with ceiling games of 82, 66 and 68 DK points and the back and forth between him and Murray has been fascinating to watch.
Mitchell’s fantasy value in those ceiling affairs hinges on his scoring ability as it took 152 real life points to get the 216 DK points in those three games – or put another way – 70% of his DFS output came from scoring.
Now, the Mitchell decision is where I think you have viable pivots – unlike the Denver side. While the Nuggets have proven to be a two man operation, the Jazz have shown that they have other viable pieces we can move to IF we chose to fade Mitchell.
If we take the route of fading Mitchell, you are doing so under the game script guidelines that he does not score 50 real life points and instead the scoring output is pushed to other pieces.
So under that route – I think the obvious pieces then push to Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. Conley has been a steady cross-category contributor since he re-joined the team and his ability to rack up peripheral stats while also driving double-digit shot attempts makes him a nice pivot off Mitchell here tonight.
Clarkson though is the direct leverage in my opinion, the lone player in this Jazz rotation with a negative correlation to Mitchell – and it makes all the sense in the world – you have two scoring dependent players and only one ball. If Mitchell is dropping 50 points, well then Clarkson is picking up scraps and vice versa.
So if you take the approach of fading Mitchell then I think you need to use Clarkson as your leverage. Think through yesterday’s slate – Giannis had a floor game while Middleton and BroLo had ceiling games. Find the leverage and move there.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Pivots
The “easy” pivot would be to fade the Utah/Denver game which has far more buzz and recency bias and instead look to stack Boston/Toronto but honestly, I am not sure how much of a pivot that will really be.
We have seen over and over again, the first game on these slates get skewed ownership and that was the case on Sunday as guys like Tatum (21%), FVV (25%), Kemba (33%), Theis (43%) saw heavy ownership as examples in the first game of the three game Sunday slate.
Will there be enough of an ownership edge on a two game slate to pivot to the lesser game enviornment?
Since the start of the playoffs – Boston ranks #2 in team defense while Toronto ranks #3 and that is not far off from the regular season where both ranked inside the top 5.
So while I understand the logic of pivoting to this game, if you are not getting a material ownership edge – why move to the far tougher game for scoring?
Instead the “pivot” may be to fade that game entirely and build a game stack of Denver/Utah and hope it gives you a Game 7 for the ages.
If you are fading Mitchell (as I argued), then you can add in fringe plays like Joe Ingles and Royce O’Neale who gives you minutes security and the ability to fill underwhelming forward positions.
The one fringe piece on Denver you could add – is Michael Porter Jr. – and that is really a result of his usage on the court in recent games. While MPJ has not started, he is getting all the closing minutes and we saw in Game 6 he checked in with 5 minutes left in the 3Q and played the entire rest of the game. In Game 5, he checked in with 6:22 left in the 3Q and again – never came off the floor. He racked up 27 DK points in Game 5 and while he only got to 18 fantasy points in Game 6, despite 12 boards, he shot just 1-7 including 0-5 from three, so the ceiling remains there is he can knock down his shots.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up
On these two game slates it becomes FAR more strategy than it becomes about the “right plays” and we need to think through this game script strategy when building our lineups.
Do not just click in the players names – think through the game script. So do not put in Mitchell as an example and then throw in Clarkson “because it fits” – the correlation would tell you that is a massive mistake.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk strategy today – the small pivots we make can make a massive difference on a two-game slate!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
