Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
One night after we had multiple aces to choose from, the slate takes a massive turn and we are left with 11 games of genuinely underwhelming pitching options.
While we have top arms available in Aaron Nola and Patrick Corbin, I am not sure investing $10K for either in Citizen’s Bank Park is the right way to spend the salary here tonight.
Instead it may make sense to pay down – with a few options that give us swing and miss ability to build around in GPP’s.
Framber Valdez ($8.1K) steps to the mound tonight against Texas with a 26% K rate, 10% swinging strike rate and a five straight games with 20+ DK points. Framber gets a match-up with a strikeout heavy Texas team and what really stands out to me is that Valdez has gone over 100 pitches in 3 of the last 4 games he took the mound. That kind of depth and K ability gives him continued profit at this price point and the fact Texas has one of the lowest IRT (3.5) on the slate gives him some serious run prevention “safety” as well.
Ian Anderson ($6.8K) made his Major League debut last time out and the former first round pick did not disappoint, as he struck out 6 Yankees over 6 innings, giving up just 1 ER with an 11% swinging strike rate.
Anderson dominated AA with a 32% K rate so we know the stuff is there, but his issue in the minor was always an elevated walk rate. In his first start he did walk just two batters so if the walks are under control we know the L upside is there.
Jordan Lindblom ($6.6K) is another cheap option in this range with serious K stuff – including a 31.3% K rate and 15% swinging strike rate this far in 2020. Today Lindblom gets the ideal match-up against a K heavy Tigers team with a 28% K rate against RHP.
On this slate, the fact we have 2-3 value arms with immense K upside, really sets this up to be a slate where you focus on bats and work backwards into your two arms from this threesome mentioned above.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
While we do have a game in Coors Field again, the reality is we have a ton of great offensive spots to attack with 7 teams with 5+ IRT outside of Coors.
The Cleveland Indians set up as one of my favorite stacks today as they take on The Dark Knight, ole Matt Harvey, an arm who simply cannot get left-handed batters out.
Since the start of 2019, Harvey is giving up a .259 ISO to LHB with a massive 51% HC rate and this Indians lineup is loaded with lefties from top to bottom. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are elite options for pay ups at SS/3B with .225+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of last season and while they are pricey, you can balance it out with cheaper pieces like Tyler Naquin ($2.6K) in the OF. A full-on stack including Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez and even righty Franmil Reyes give you multiple ways to attack this high-end stack.
It has been a while since we got to rock some Dodgers here in Picks and Pivots but this looks like a great time to do it against LHP Alex Young who is giving up .300 ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate with a 50% HC rate.
The beautiful part of the Dodgers/Indians is how they correlate well together from a position perspective. The Indians give you elite IF options like Lindor/Ramirez and you can then use the Dodgers OF bats like Betts/Pollock/Bellinger to mix and match positions.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Today we have the ability to load up on bats and we can do so with some cheap pitching with high K upside which has proven to be a winning formula in GPP’s.
My goal is to stack the Indians/Dodgers either in a 4/4 or 5/3 stack and then back into the two arms I use based on pricing.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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