Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Wednesday Night’s slate is a repeat of the Monday two game slate with the Bucks/Heat continuing their second round series while OKC and Houston face off in a Game 7.
Monday Night’s winning lineup in the $100K to first GPP on DK pushed 320+ fantasy points with a more balanced build – ignoring the stars like Giannis and Harden and building around the mid-range with a lineup consisting of Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Goran Dragic, Robert Covington, PJ Tucker and Darius Bazley.
Also fun fact – you cannot just play that lineup again tonight on DK – I tried.
The fact we a carbon copy slate just 48 hours later will make for some interesting game theory and discussion on how we approach this slate tonight.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Studs
We basically are walking into the same scenario here on Wednesday where the only news we are waiting on is the status of Eric Bledsoe, who is questionable to play and with that game being first to tip-off, we should have all the news we need on that front.
So the million dollar question today is – what are we doing with James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Giannis was the popular pay up on Monday, at nearly 60% ownership in GPP’s and considering the bump he got with Bledsoe off the court, it made sense to prioritize him as a spend up on the slate.
While Giannis still managed to get 10 boards, 9 assists and just shy of 50 DK points, what stood out to me watching that game was how the Heat forced the ball out of his hands to make him more of a facilitator and that limited him to just 12 shot attempts.
That forced Khris Middleton (24 FGA) and Brook Lopez (10 FGA) to carry the load offensively and with Miami getting a win in Game 1, I am not sure we see the defensive strategy change. Miami post-game talked about the need to “pack the paint” defensively to force Giannis away from the hoop and keep him from getting downhill where he is so dangerous.
So you can play this one of two ways – you can assume Game 1 is replicated and do with the Giannis fade with a Middleton/BroLo leverage that worked in Game 1. Or you can assume that Middleton will not shoot 50%, with Lopez shooting 80% and it pushes Giannis to be more aggressive.
Harden on the other hand was far less popular, coming in at half the ownership for Giannis, sub 30% in the $100k to first GPP on DK, and while he was solid with 51 DK points – it most certainly did not pay off his hefty price tag.
The thing is – everything remains set up for Harden – as he had 20+ FGA, double-digit three pointers and combined for 15 rebounds/assists – so the ceiling remains slate breaking for Harden even with Russell Westbrook back on the court.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Taking a stand
I argued for Stars and Scrubs on Monday and I am a big believer in process over results when it comes to DFS. Writing DFS every day leads you to understand the ebb/flow and where we saw Stars/Scrubs be the winning approach on Saturday/Sunday – it has been the balanced builds that have ruled the day on Monday/Tuesday of this week.
If recency bias is going to push everyone towards the balanced builds or to the game logs from Monday – why not simply stay the course we argued on Monday?
There are no players in NBA DFS that have the ability to win you a slate single handily like Giannis and Harden have and while they can have floor games as they did on Monday – they have unmatched ceilings and if they are on and you opted to fade, well – kiss your night goodbye.
So tonight, take a stand – let’s not assume Giannis is only going to take 12 shots, and that Middleton/Lopez will not combine to shoot 60% from the floor.
In a must-win game, is Harden going to “settle” for just 22 shots or is he going to have a take over game where the fringe guys like Eric Gordon/Robert Covington simply stand around and watch instead of getting 20+ shot attempts of their own as they did in Game 6.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Let’s ride!
So if we go Stars and Scrubs again – I think we follow the same blueprint from Monday by and large.
Going “three deep” with stars led us to argue pairing Giannis/Harden with one of Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo.
Now Butler had the better day on Monday with 53 DK points but that was all driven by a scoring dependent 40 real-life points which included 12-13 from the free-throw line. The Bucks were one of the hardest teams to drive on all season and gave up one of the fewest amounts of fouls/free throws, so was this a one-game anomaly?
Adebayo meanwhile was far more diverse in his peripherals, racking up 17 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals and it is that well-rounded game that makes me far more interested tonight as I would argue he has more paths to value than Butler does.
The value plays tonight are going to be the same cast of characters from Monday – so be prepared for more George Hill chalk if he is going to play 30+ minutes again as the starter.
Pat Connaughton was the first sub off the bench for Milwaukee and more importantly, was on the floor the the final 7-8 minutes of the 4th as he closed the game out with the starters. Patty C has a similar path to that run tonight and if he can hit any sort of shot (he went just 1-5), he has the ability to exceed value easily at just $3.7K on DK.
OKC is going to afford you the same set of plays once again as Lu Dort ($4K) will give you a cheap starting option with a path to 20 DK points and value darling Darius Bazley ($3.9K) remains under $4K despite the fact he has gone for 22+ DK points in 3 of the first 6 games in this series.
Bazley’s ceiling is sky high if he gets offense to go with his peripherals as he managed 24 DK points last game despite the fact he made just ONE shot from the floor.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up
Take your stand tonight – we all saw this exact slate play out and if Eric Bledsoe sits again, we are literally staring at the same decisions and by and large, the same price points for the majority of the player pool.
If you want to argue Game 1 was an off night for the stars and they bounce back tonight – then ride that Stars and Scrubs route. If you think Game 1 was an indication of things to come – stay balanced and hope you can repeat the winning formula from Monday.
My biggest piece of advice though – do not overreact.
If your strategy on Monday remains sound in logic and process – stay the course and let others chase the recency bias and game logs.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk strategy today – the small pivots we make can make a massive difference on a two-game slate!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
