Adam Strangis 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
We have just a six game “Main” slate here today which kicks off at 4:05 PM EST and upon opening this slate you will likely find yourself with the first decision you need to make.
What do we do with Clayton Kershaw ($10.3K)?
Kershaw is going to be the cash game SP1 and likely the highest owned arm in tournaments as he steps to the mound against Arizona as a massive home favorite against an opposing team with a sub 3 IRT. His 29.5% K rate and 13.4% swinging strike rate give you every reason to play him in this spot but is he a “must have” piece that you have to eat the chalk on?
Kershaw has gone over 90 pitches just twice this season and has not yet reached the 100 pitch mark and while the IRT is low for Arizona, the projected starting lineup has just a 19% k rate against LHP since the start of last season.
Now the counter argument is that this is the same team he faced on August 2 and struck out 6 batters on his way to 27 points but if that is the “ceiling” we are fading – can’t we make that up with the big time bats that those who own Kershaw won’t be able to afford?
Now if we are going to fade Kershaw, it gets dicey – real dicey – but rather than overpay for pitchers we don’t feel strongly about – why not punt with arms and go full scrub at pitcher!
Taijuan Walker ($4.8K) may end up as a popular SP2 pairing with Kershaw when you consider he has 3 games this season of 20+DK points and his price and recent game logs really become the reason to play him.
Now he does have a 21.3% K rate but that is paired with only a 7% swinging strike rate and 80% contact rate so there is risk in this spot but the price MORE than reflects that.
Robert Gsellman ($5.5K) gets another spot start against the banged up Yankees, after facing them last game where he went 4 innings, striking out 4 and getting 13 DK points. Gsellman did have a 12.3% swinging strike rate in that start and this Yankees line-up has struck out at a 24.2% rate this season against RHP.
Listen, going Gsellman/Walker could end up a total disaster – but if you are able to get another 20 DK game out of Walker and 15+ out of Gsellman – you are getting around 35 DK points for $10.3K which is the exact same price as Kershaw will cost you.
Think about it…
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
If we go Kershaw and one of the punts, we have room for one big stack in our builds but if we go double punts, well it becomes – click on your favorite bats and do not worry about pricing.
The White Sox have become my 2020 Dodgers – it is tough not to default to them nearly every night, especially when they face a lefty as they do today in Danny Duffy.
Duffy is a fly ball pitcher to RHB with a .235 ISO mark this season and 1-7 in this Chicago line-up is a murders row of right handed power bats. Duffy just faced this team the last time out and gave up HR’s to Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert and honestly, just pick and choose any White Sox batter here and you can make the argument.
Every hitter 1-7 has a .200+ ISO mark against LHB since 2019 – so for me, it becomes more about positions and how I use them as a correlated stack with my second team. If my secondary stack does not have a good SS – then boom we rock Tim Anderson. If they are weak at catcher, well this is how you use Yasmani Grandal etc.
That secondary stack I think is where you differentiate here tonight. Kershaw owners may be able to get the White Sox using a punt like Walker as their SP2, but it means going cheap with their secondary stack and so by paying up here – we can go for the big GPP pivots.
The Philadelphia Phillies are that team for me today – against Anibal Sanchez – who has a single digit swinging strike rate, 16% K rate and is giving up over 45% hard contact as a fly ball pitcher in Citizens Bank. Giddy up.
Obviously the big spend is Bryce Harper and you get an interesting decision at catcher with Realmuto or Grandal in this build – either way, going with a high upside option behind the dish. Jay Bruce may be the best value on either team under $3K on DK as he has a .524 ISO against RHP this season with a massive 55% fly-ball rate and against the splitter (Sanchez’s most thrown pitch) he has a career mark of .538 ISO and 78% HC rate. Yeahhhhh buddy!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
If you want to roll with Kershaw as your SP1 today, it is the safe and smart choice but in GPP’s I am fine going with the punt route when the rest of the pitching slate is underwhelming and looking to make up any difference (if there is any) with my bats.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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