Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
We have a 7 game MLB DFS Main Slate here on Monday which has some unique characteristics including and early 4PM EST start time and the fact that three games are 7 inning double header opening games including Pit/Cinn, Oak/Sea and Stl/Mil.
Trevor Bauer ($10.8K) is the clear top dog from a pitching perspective as his combination of K upside and match-up seem to align perfectly against the Pirates on Monday afternoon. Bauer has an elite 36% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate and faces a Pittsburgh team with a 24.7% K rate in their projected line-up.
Bauer has made 8 starts this season and has gone for 35+ DK points in 5 of those outings which provides some serious must-have upside on this short slate. Add in the fact that Bauer has gone at least 6 innings and 100+ pitches in all but one start this season and you have a path in this shortened game for the complete game bonus!
Finding an SP2 on this slate becomes a challenge because of the pricing on the offenses, but we may not have to even leave this Pittsburgh/Cincy game to find it – as Cody Ponce ($4K) becomes an intriguing true punt.
Ponce is a former second round pick who has racked up a 25%+ K rate over the last three seasons in the minors across AA and AAA and has made two starts already in 2020 which solid results. Ponce has started the last two games, throwing 70+ pitches in both, striking out 6 batters across 9.2 innings with 3 ER allowed on 2 HR’s.
Now the DFS results are not going to jump out at us, but the fact he has averaged 12.6 DK points over these first two games – puts him on track to exceed 3X value on this crazy low DK price.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
The reason we are going to take on risk at SP2 today is that the priority for me is finding a way to stack Bauer with the high-priced and high-upside Atlanta Braves offense.
This Braves offense has just been hammering the ball in 2020 and every single batter 1-7 in this lineup is sporting a .200+ ISO against RHP this season. In fact, the total line-up has a .277 ISO with a 45% HC rate and a 300+ average distance traveled – in summary – they have power, and lots of it.
The best play from the Braves on paper is Freddie Freeman as Jorge Lopez’s struggles have been far more prevalent on the left side of the plate (.255 ISO) versus just a .022 ISO versus RHB. The thinking here is you are not simply stacking against Lopez, especially since the Braves are so right-handed heavy, but you are hoping they get to the Baltimore pen early which has struggled to the 4th worst xFIP (5.35) of any bullpen in the league over the last 14 days.
When you look at the context of this slate, we have alot of good offenses but they also face off against talented pitchers. So while the Padres are great, they have to tangle with Kershaw and while we also love stacking the White Sox and Dodgers – are we willing to pay the premium against pitchers like Jose Berrios and Dinelson Lamet?
It leaves Atlanta in a spot where they arguably have the most upside relative to their match-up and an offense that can win you the slate as they have shown time and time again.
In order to make it all work – you need some cheapies and there is one stack that gives us some pop and salary savings alongside the Braves and that is the Miami Marlins.
No pitcher on this slate gives up more hard contact than Vincent Velazquez and while he certainly has swing and miss stuff, he also gives up a ton of power, surrendering .200+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate over the last year+.
The first play that stands out is Matt Joyce, projected to bat clean-up and costs just $2K on DK – I think they call that a free square kids. Right alongside Joyce in punt town is 2B Isan Diaz ($2.2K) who assuming he gets the call (he is in the projected lineup for what it’s worth), gives you an opportunity to fill in a 2B/OF with cheap correlation that also works alongside the big bats we are coveting from Atlanta.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Looking at this slate today my goal as I dug in was really to find a path to a Bauer and Braves stack which meant finding value in our builds and I think with the SP2/cheap mini stack we talked about here – there is a way to unlock the upside from our core within the constraints of the cap.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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