Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Play Shane Bieber. The end.
I am not trying to over simplify this one – you have the best K arm in baseball this season in Bieber going up against the best match-up for right-handed pitchers as the Tigers K at the highest clip against RHP.
Bieber is $10.9K on DraftKings and it is not high enough. The last time Bieber faced Detroit he struck out 11 and racked up 39.4 DK points and frankly I think hes a must play on this 6 game slate.
The SP2 decision on this slate will become a key differentiator and I am hopeful that Seth Lugo ($7.1K) goes under the radar, especially after 50% of the field was burned by Jacob deGrom last night.
The average baseball fan may not know just how dominant Lugo is, but as a Mets fan – I have seen it time and time again. As a starter, Lugo has a massive 35.7% K rate in four starts and he has faced this Phillies team recently in that role, where he racked up 8 K’s and 25.7 DK points.
Just go back and watch this performance and happily take the discount on an elite K arm that does not yet have the name recognition he should across the league.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
Offense is what is winning you this slate and while that may be the case on many slates, the fact we have a smaller player pool and a unanimous lock for our SP1, your ability to pivot within the same general roster constructs will become critical.
The Yankees have been red-hot on back to back days, the Astros are healthy and sporting a 5+ IRT and oh yeah, the Dodgers in Coors Field.
All of those spots are great and they will all likely gain ownership – so how do we attack this differently? There are two stacks with similar 4.7 IRT’s that will likely go over-looked here tonight – but could have some sneaky GPP upside and that is the Cardinals and Indians.
The Indians let me down last night but I am going right back to the well tonight with rookie Casey Mize on the hill and 15 MPH winds blowing out in Detroit.
Now Mize is talented but he is also giving up a .200+ ISO mark to LHB so far and this Indians lineup is loaded with them – including the big spends like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. With Coors on the slate, meaning Story/Arenado at SS/3B – I love the idea of a similarly high priced duo at a fraction of the ownership.
Also it is Jose Ramirez birthday today. I am calling a birthday bomb right here, right now. BOOK IT.
St. Louis takes on LHP Steven Brault, a low K arm, with a single digit swinging strike rate who has an 80% contact rate – and while his ground ball rate keeps the power down, his lack of K ability allows you to attack a pitcher with a 5+ xFIP.
Any stack against a lefty for the Cardinals needs to start with Paul Goldschmidt who checks all the boxes in this spot with a .336 ISO against LHP, a higher fly ball rate than ground ball rate to balance Brault’s bread and butter and oh by the way – some BvP to boot (4 for 11 with 2 HR’s).
When you attack arms like Brault who limit power – you are taking more of a stack based approach where you are getting base runners, consecutive hits and racking up runs and fantasy points more station to station. So what that means is you want to add pieces around Goldy that #1 have the splits advantage and #2 that work in correlation with your other stack.
So as an example – you can use Yadier Molina as your Catcher if you are pairing the Cardinals/Indians together and you can tack on a cheap OF like Tyler O’Neill who is $2.8K and projected to bat clean-up with the platoon advantage.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Locking in Bieber as an SP1 is going to be the start point today and I really don’t see SP2 being a spot thats going to drive huge ownership differences. Think of it this way – with a game in Coors and the Yankees/Astros on the slate – you are basically ruling out 4 of the remaining 11 arms so the SP2 pool remains pretty concentrated.
That leads us to offense which is where I think you take your chances tonight in the name of variance. I am not saying the Yankees, Astros or Coors bats are bad plays but with MLB hitting being the most variant aspect of this DFS sport, can we attack arms with other solid offenses at single digit ownership?
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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