Jim Thomson 
UFC VEGAS 11.
Covington Vs. Woodley.
We have an action-packed UFC fight card tonight! UFC Vegas 11, Covington vs. Woodley starts with eight dynamic preliminary fights and six excellent fights on the main menu at the Apex Arena, Las Vegas. This is the biggest fight card I have ever seen, and I cannot wait to watch this massive FOURTEEN fight, fight card. It is going to be epic!
In my UFC DFS lineups, I will have 100% exposure to the Main Event. The Main Event is a five-round fight. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 11 Covington vs. Woodley.
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MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Journey Newson -130 (DK 8400) (FD $17) vs. Randy Costa +100 (DK 7800) (FD $16).
This is, by far, my favorite fight of the night. The winner of this fight will most likely be in the UFC DFS optimal lineup. I am in love with this fight because of the pace that Randy Costa fights at. He comes out every fight guns blazing and with non-stop aggression. When looking for a value fighter to fill into my lineups, that is precisely what I look for. Costa is a boom or bust type of fighter. He will come out and knock out his opponent in the first round, or he will make it through the first round, and it’s all downhill from there. Costa tends to get gassed out after the first round, as he starts the fight with every ounce of energy that he has.
On the other side, Newson is the polar opposite. He comes out with no urgency and what looks like no drive to win. If Newson makes it through the whirlwind of strikes in the first round by Costa, he stands a chance to pull a submission in the later rounds. If he starts taking shots early in the first round, it will be a rapid ending and will hopefully end with us counting our UFC DFS and sports betting profits. My prediction is Costa comes out and destroys Newson in the first round and wins via first-round finish.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Randy Costa +100 (DK 7800) (FD $16). FIRST-ROUND TKO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Khamzat Chimaev -440 (DK 9400) (FD $21) vs. Gerald Meerschaert +340 (DK 6800) (FD $8).
What more can we say about Khamzat, other than he has been beating the daylights out of his opponents? Since entering the UFC, Khamzat won back to back fights within ten days and continues with another quicker turnaround. Chimaev is hungry to climb the ranks of the division, and you can easily tell. He has every aspect of his fight game covered, whether it be standup, grappling, or ground and pound.
Chimaev faces off against Gerald Meerschaert. Gerald is a veteran of the fight game and has a ton of experience. That is the one thing that could potentially cause a slip up for Khamzat. In this spot, I do not see him slipping, though. I think he steps into the ring with Gerald and immediately proves that he is here to stay and completely dominates him all over. My prediction is a first-round stoppage from either ground and pound or submission.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Khamzat Chimaev -440 (DK 9400) (FD $21). FIRST-ROUND TKO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET:
Donald Cerrone +110 (DK 7700) (FD $15) vs. Niko Price -140 (DK 8500) (FD $17).
We all know that Donald Cerrone is getting older; that is no secret. In his recent fights, he has faced some of the best fighters in his division. Unfortunately, he lost every one of those fights. On paper, Cerrone is better all around and has fought the tougher competition, but this is not paper.
Cerrone is stepping into another tough matchup, and this time it’s against Niko Price. If you did not see Niko’s last fight, in my opinion, he was beating Luque until the fight was stopped in the third round. Price is another boom or bust type of fighter, whether it wins or loses. Niko is very fast and as strong as they come. Donald has not looked good at all lately and is a very slow starter. Niko is a quick starter with a lot of power, and I could see him going for the gusto in the first round against Cerrone. My prediction is Price knocks Cerrone out cold in the first round and sends him one step closer to retirement.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Niko Price -140 (DK 8500) (FD $17). FIRST-ROUND TKO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
(No specific order)
Colby Covington -340 (DK 9300) (FD $23).
T.J Laramine -320 (DK 9200) (FD $19).
David Dvorak -115 (DK 8200) (FD $17).
Tyson Nam -190 (DK 8600) (FD $17).
Mayra Bueno-Silva -270 (DK 9000) (FD $17).
Damon Jackson (GPP ONLY) (DK 6700) (FD $9).
Ryan Spann (GPP ONLY) (DK 7900) (FD $16).
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Always remember the more rounds in a fight, the higher the fantasy score could be. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
