NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown

Hopefully everyone enjoyed a huge week of cashing in Week 1! It’s officially NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 2, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
• Jonathan Taylor chalk week – Play him in cash games.
• A lot of value everywhere at the WR position. Adams is easily the top WR play for cash, but there are a lot of values down low.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

1. Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DK / $9,500 FD) – You don’t need me to tell you Lamar Jackson is in play. He’s the top QB option on this slate and a perfect start to your cash game build.
   AETY Projection: 25.75 points
   
2. Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Same situation as Lamar Jackson. We don’t need to talk about why Mahomes is always in play for cash games.
   AETY Projection: 21.13 points
   
3. Aaron Rodgers ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – I said it all summer long. Rodgers is going to be a man possessed this season and started off with a bang in Week 1. I don’t love him as much as I did in Week 1, but this Lions’ secondary is in rough shape. Rodgers will carve them up and hit value with ease.
   AETY Projection: 20.55 points
   
4. Dak Prescott ($6,800 DK / $8,300 FD) – Hard to not want to lock in Dak Prescott after what Russell Wilson and the Seahawks did to this secondary last week. This is the nuts matchup for an opposing QB and a solid price to use Dak in cash.
   AETY Projection: 20.90 points
   
5. Kyler Murray ($6,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – Criminally priced on DraftKings. He’s likely my favorite QB for cash games and offers a high-floor based on his rushing ability alone. This Washington secondary is going to have a hard time in coverage against this passing scheme of Cliff Kingsbury. If you can’t afford Hopkins, just get your exposure to him through Murray.
   AETY Projection: 21.93 points
   
6. Philip Rivers ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – You’re going to notice that I’ll always be picking on this Minnesota secondary throughout the 2020 NFL season. I wish Rivers was priced down a bit more, but this matchup is enough to warrant the play in a NFL DFS Cash Game as well as GPPs.
   AETY Projection: 17.86 points
   
   Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Mitch Trubisky

Running Backs

1. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,200 DK / $8,600 FD) – Great price, great matchup, great high-total gamescript. If you’re not using Dak Prescott in cash, use Elliott. The offensive line is certainly not what it used to be, but Elliott’s usage and skillset are enough to make the play.
   AETY Projection: 23.05 DK /21.46 FD
   
2. Derrick Henry ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD) – 50% of the field is going to use Henry (if not more) in cash games this weekend. It’s a smash spot against a horrendous Jacksonville defense that Marlon Mack was slashing early last week prior to the injury. Henry is a no-brainer this week for cash games, especially at that ownership.
   AETY Projection: 22.76 DK / 21.83 FD
   
3. Austin Ekeler ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – It bit more risky than I’d like after only receiving one target in Week 1, but I’m going to go back to the well with Ekeler this week in what should be a plus gamescript for a pass-catching back like Ekeler. I have to think the Chargers staff watched the film and are ready to get Ekeler back in a position where he can succeed.
   
   The season is young, but KC is currently ranked 31st in run defense DVOA. Take that with a grain of salt, but this is likely a team we will target with opposing running backs all season long.
   AETY Projection: 15.35 DK / 14.09 FD
   
4. Jonathan Taylor ($5,700 DK / $5,800 FD) – Just lock him in for your cash games. It’s that easy, he’s the “freesquare” player this week that everyone will be on.
   AETY Projection: 17.20 DK / 15.68 FD
   
5. David Montgomery ($5,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel and a solid value on DraftKings. Montgomery is more of a GPP play this week, but the 13 carries and 3 targets in the passing game last week has me thinking Montgomery is 100% healthy.
   
   He was very effective on the ground last week and should be a main focus of the Bears’ offense as they’re a relatively sizable home-favorite against a New York Giants’ defense that allowed Benny Snell to eclipse 100 rush yards. He’s in play for NFL DFS Cash Game lineups in Week 2.
   AETY Projection: 14.25 DK / 13.26 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Cylde Edwards-Helaire, Aaron Jones, Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss

Wide Receivers

1. Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD) – We don’t need to write much about Davante Adams. The Lions’ secondary (who just lost Desmond Trufant/Justin Coleman but gains rookie, Jeff Okudah) is simply not good. I do think Patricia will have a solid scheme to slow-down Adams with bracket coverage, but that won’t be enough to stop Adams from hitting value for us in cash games.
   AETY Projection: 21.53 DK / 17.45 FD
   
2. DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DK / $8,300 FD) – I’m still not a believer that the target share Hopkins just received is sustainable, but my lord, what a debut from Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. The price is solid and a likely matchup against Ronald Darby is always intriguing.
   AETY Projection: 18.66 DK / 15.22 FD
   
3. Adam Thielen ($7,200 DK / $7,300 FD) – Not really a fan of Thielen, but with how much I like the Colts’ offense this week, it makes a ton of sense to run it back on the other side with Adam Thielen. The Colts’ secondary looked sub-par last week in the loss to Jacksonville and should have a tough time containing Thielen if Minnesota has to push the pace a bit and pass often like last week. The targets will be there.
   AETY Projection: 16.84 DK / 13.86 FD
   
4. Calvin Ridley ($6,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – What a season opener for Calvin Ridley! Hopefully you all had plenty of shares last week on what was easily the best game to stack up. Atlanta’s defense is brutal and will be chasing points all season long. We always want exposure to talented receivers in a team that is likely to throw the ball 45+ times a game.
   AETY Projection: 15.25 DK / 12.20 FD
   
5. Amari Cooper ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – 14 targets in Week 1… Wowza. I’ve always been an Amari Cooper truther due to the top-tier route running ability and am expecting a big year in 2020. We touched on how awful Atlanta’s secondary is, so honestly, every Cowboy receiver is in-play, so just pick which one fits your build. Good luck, Isaiah Oliver and company.
   AETY Projection: 16.41 DK / 13.44 FD
   
6. Danny Amendola ($4,800 DK / $5,200 FD) – Only in play for DraftKings, but if the Lions are chasing points all day long (they will be), Amendola can find his way into a 10-target game on the inside of this Packers’ pass defense.
   
   UPDATE: Not worth the risk. Just go down to Scotty Miller ($4,100 DK / $5,200 FD)
   
7. Diontae Johnson ($4,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – The price is too low for a talented wide receiver in an expected explosive offense who just received 10 targets. I know everyone is going to go down to Corey Davis who’s also a freesquare type of player, but Diontae has way more upside. He’s one of four receivers on the AETY Model who projected for over 3x value.
   AETY Projection: 13.65 DK / 11.04 FD
   
8. Parris Campbell ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD) – Cheap exposure to a wide receiver who will see > 80% of the snaps against this Minnesota secondary. Keep it simple. I know everyone says don’t stack in cash games, but if you have a NFL DFS cash game lineup with Taylor/Campbell, I think you’ll be okay this week.
   AETY Projection: 12.65 DK / 10.43 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DJ Chark, Mike Evans, Corey Davis, Mike Williams

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – It’s Travis Kelce. He’s the only Tier 1 Tight-End in the game (in my opinion). He’s always in play no matter what format.
   AETY Projection: 16.18 DK / 13.43 FD
   
2. Jordan Reed ($2,600 DK / $4,800 FD) – Kittle is out and that opens up the world of value for Jordan Reed for the 49ers. They didn’t bring him in to be a pass blocker. He’s going to run routes and the price is too good to pass up.
   AETY Projection: 8.04 DK / 6.72 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, Chris Herndon

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s the defenses in my player pool this weekend:

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Tennessee Titans
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Arizona Cardinals
7. Tampa Bay Bucs
8. Indianapolis Colts

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Derrick Henry
RB: Jonathan Taylor
WR: Amari Cooper
WR: Calvin Ridley
WR: Diontae Johnson
TE: Jordan Reed
FLEX: Austin Ekeler
DST: Tampa Bay Bucs

Good luck to all!

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