Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
We have just a six game Main Slate here on Thursday and with some serious rain concerns in Atlanta, this could become a five game slate in short order.
What is interesting about this slate is we lack the must have arms and with the Braves potentially out of the player pool. there really isn’t even a must have offense we have to worry about. All this adds up to a great GPP night!
We have two arms on this slate that stand out above and beyond the rest – ranking 1-2 since 2019 in SIERA, K rate and SS rate of the available arms on this slate – Walker Buehler ($10K) and Corbin Burnes ($8.4K).
Burnes from a pure metrics perspective is the best arm on the slate with a 37.6% K rate, 14.6% SS rate and a match-up against a Cardinals team he just faced, striking out 10 batters on his way to 23.7 DK points. Burnes is likely going to be the chalky pitching choice on this slate at this far too cheap price point but I see no reason to argue against it.
Buehler to me is a luxury on this slate – in that I can essentially use him as my SP2 because of the lack of spend up options we have on DraftKings. Now Buehler is making his first start off the IL since a blister sidelined him and while he did throw a 90 pitch simulated game on Saturday – the biggest risk is that he simply uses this as a postseason warm-up.
We have seen this season that even in games when he got only to 92 pitches, he had the double-digit K ceiling to rack up 35 DK points against the Rockies but it is interesting to me that we are paying $10K for an arm off the IL who has failed to reach double digit DK points in 4 of this 7 starts in 2020.
All those reasons I think could make him a perfect GPP play – he is overpriced relative to his 2020 performance, he is coming off an injury and he has pitch count concerns – but he is one of the few arms on this slate capable of giving you a ceiling game.
Paying down seems like the “safer” path in a weird way – as I could make strong arguments for both Christian Javier and Kris Bubic as SP2’s alongside Burnes.
Bubic gets the “flow chart” game as Adam Strangis likes to say – pitcher against the Tigers and while he is coming off back to back 20 DK point outings, the Tigers line-up has shown all year they are more vulnerable to RHP than LHP as they rank in the top 10 in ISO versus LHP and have a line-up with a sub 20% K rate against southpaws.
Javier gets a far better match-up in my opinion against the Rangers with a projected lineup that has a 25% K rate against RHP and has FIVE batters in the line-up with 30% or higher K rates since 2019 against RHP. Seriously 5 of the 9 batters have in this line-up are going to strike out 1/3 of the time!
Javier faced Texas once already, pitching 6.2 innings, allowing just 2 hits, 1 ER and racked up 20.6 DK points with only 3 K’s. His last two outings have been his best from a swing and miss perspective, with a 20% and 13% swinging strike rate against the Dodgers and DBacks which were the first games he had double-digit SS rates since July.
If you look at his pitch mix, the last two games he has become far more reliant on his fastball, throwing it 10% more and using his slider as a swing and miss pitch over 30% of the time against the Dodgers which is the most he had used it this season. For my money, I think Javier is the best PP/$ value at SP2 tonight.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
Bats tonight are going to be a spot where I think (assuming Atlanta gets rained out) we can get a little weird and take some chances and maybe that means using a “popular” Stack 1 with a little off the wall Stack 2.
The Royals top of the line-up stands out to me at first glance as they get a Fulmer/Alexander combo and the terrible Tigers bullpen today. Fulmer will open the game and the fact he has been hammered to the tune of a .404 ISO by RHB this season sets up well for the top of the order – Merrifield/Perez and Soler.
Alexander coming in behind him is not much better – with a .333 ISO to RHB so the same trio applies and you have a clear core to build around with the same metrics advantage no matter which side of the rubber they are pitching from.
With a 5+ IRT, the Royals could end up being popular which leads me to a Brewers secondary stack that with a sub 4 IRT, may get totally overlooked.
Milwaukee has been a team that you could pick on all year with opposing arms but against lefties, they rank quietly in the top 6 in both ISO and wOBA. With the Cardinals throwing a lefty (Kim) today who has minimal K ability, including a 7% SS rate and a 82% contact rate with a 47% HC rate – the Brewers have a chance to really square him up.
Christian Yelich is in a perfect L/L spot here with a .304 ISO against LHP since last year and Jedd Gyorko (1B/3B) can be deployed in two spots on DK with a .234 ISO against southpaws. In 2020 alone this duo has a.400 ISO mark against LHP combined and makes for an ideal 1-2 mini-stack with some serious upside.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Going into this slate, Burnes is the one player in my pool that ownership will likely not sway but I could argue to go up to Buehler or down to Javier as my SP2 depending on how the field treats pitching today.
Bats then become easily interchangeable and I love the correlation of KC/Milwaukee as you can use the elite Catcher in Perez from KC, mixing in elite 2B/SS options like Hiura/Mondesi to fill out your roster where the other team is weakest.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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