Jim Thomson 
UFC 253.
Adesanya vs. Costa
We have an insane fight card ahead of us on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi! UFC 253 Adesanya vs. Costa is going to be one to remember. Not only do we have two undefeated fighters squaring off, but we have a total of eleven jaw-dropping fights that we get to watch. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show!
In my UFC DFS lineups, I will have 100% exposure to the Main Event. The Main Event is a five-round fight. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 253 Adesanya vs. Costa.
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MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Jeff Hughes +250 (DK 7100) (FD $9) vs. Juan Espino -310 (DK 9100) (FD $19).
This battle is where my top value play is hidden. Hughes comes into this fight with zero wins, two losses, and one no-contest in his UFC career. Hughes has struggled mightily since he’s entered the UFC. He has been very one dimensional in his previous fights. Only looking to throw monster punches and land them perfectly. He has been training with the current heavyweight Champion (Stipe) and should have picked up a few grappling strategies along the way.
Jeff is squaring off against Juan Espino. Juan comes into the octagon with a record of nine wins and one loss but is making his UFC debut. Espino is primarily a grappler with five submission wins in his career. That is precisely what he will look to do to Hughes to win this fight. If Espino can get Hughes to the mat, he will be able to submit him pretty easily, in my opinion. If this fight stays on the feet, I give the edge to Hughes. My prediction for this fight is that Hughes comes into this fight with his back against the wall, and power punches his way to his first UFC victory.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jeff Hughes +250 (DK 7100) (FD $9) DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Khadis Ibragimov -180 (DK 8700) (FD $17) vs. Danilo Marques +150 (DK 7500) (FD $14).
Khadis comes into the fight with zero wins and three losses in the UFC. If he does not win this fight versus Marques, he will most likely not be fighting in the UFC anymore. Ibragimov is the fighter type that gets very crazy and swings wild arms and wild kicks, hoping that he connects. While he is swinging like a maniac, he is also gassing himself out very quickly, and that has been a constant problem with him in his career.
Khadis has one more shot at trying to pick up a win. It is against Danilo Marques. Marques is making his UFC debut with an outstanding record of nine wins and two losses as a pro. He is primarily a grappler. Danilo is not the most impressive fighter in the world and tends to leave himself open when he attacks. In this fight, I see Khadis getting wild and crazy with his striking. When he does, Marques will be right there waiting for him. Marques has a better gas tank and knows how to outlast his opponent. Outlasting their opponent is one thing that Khadis does not know how to do. I believe this will be the last fight of Ibragimov’s UFC career when Danilo lights him up in the second round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Danilo Marques +150 (DK 7500) (FD $14). SECOND-ROUND TKO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET:
Dominick Reyes -270 (DK 9000) (FD $22) vs. Jan Blachowicz +210 (DK 7200) (FD $17).
This fight is the co-main event, and it is going to be a great matchup. Reyes is paired up against Blachowicz in what is going to be an extremely exciting fight. Reyes has six wins and one loss in the UFC. Dominick is a dominant wrestler and an outstanding striker. He is currently coming off a loss to Jones where he showed how elite he really is and that he can hang with the best in the world. Reyes has a monster left kick and is an expert when getting up while he’s against the fence. He is incredibly well-rounded and is a tough matchup for anyone.
Blachowicz has a record of nine wins and five losses in the UFC. He is very powerful and, in my opinion, has gone overlooked for years until now. The power he possesses is truly devastating and could knock anyone’s lights out, but versus Reyes, I do not see him being able to catch him the way he has caught some other opponents, and Reyes will outwork him. I think Dominick will piece him apart until the final bell and will throw an insane amount of significant strikes while he does so.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Dominick Reyes -270 (DK 9000) (FD $22). DECISION
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
(No specific order)
Israel Adesanya -185 (DK 8500) (FD $21).
Jake Mathews -800 (DK 9400) (FD $20).
Ludovit Klein -125 (DK 8300) (FD $16).
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s eleven bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Always remember the more rounds in a fight, the higher the fantasy score could be. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
