NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 3

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed Weeks One and Two and will continue to do so this week. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

*Obviously, Russell Wilson/Dak Prescott/Kyler Murray are in absolute smash spots. I don’t need to write them up. I’m much higher on Russell, but both are in play. Russell is probably my favorite of the three and I’m likely to be under-weight on both Kyler and Dak*

1. Cam Newton ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD) – All hail, King Newton in Week 3… more on Newton in the Cash Game Checkdown. He’s coming off of a tough loss on the road in Seattle and will look to absolutely light up this Las Vegas defense. These corners can’t contain Edelman/Harry/Byrd and Newton will also do a lot of damage via the run.
   
   My ONLY CONCERN is Las Vegas’ ability to keep this game close and up-paced. Under 10% in ownership… I’ll take that risk. You can run him out naked or stack him up with one or two of the below:
   
   Potential Stacks:
   Edelman/Harry
   Edelman/Byrd
   Byrd/Harry
   
2. Joe Burrow ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) – Burrow’s ownership is coming in at under 2% right now and that alone is enough for me to be interested in Burrow. With or without Darius Slay, this Philadelphia secondary is well below average (ranking 27th in Pass Defense DVOA) and Zac Taylor’s up-paced offense should bode well in this spot.
   
   We all know Miles Sanders is good-chalk, so why not get some exposure to the other side of the ball here. This is a sneaky, up-paced game stack as a whole.
   
   Potential Stacks:
   – Boyd/Green
   – Boyd/Sample
   – Sample/Green
   – Mixon/Boyd
   – Mixon/Green
   Potential Game Stacks:
   – Burrow/Boyd/Sanders
   – Burrow/Boyd/Sanders/Ertz (or Goeddert)
   – Burrow/Boyd/Green/Sanders/Ertz (or Goeddert)
   
   Honestly, there’s so many variations of this game you can stack up. I’m in on Joe Burrow.
   
3. Ben Roethlisberger ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – I’m not super high on using Big Ben, but this matchup is absolutely pristine. He’s due for a classic 300 yard passing game with 4 touchdowns and this may be the spot. I’m very interested in this Pittsburgh offense from multiple angles as you’ll read a bit later.
   
   Potential Stacks:
   – JuJu/Diontae
   – JuJu/Ebron
   – Diontae/Ebron
   – Conner/JuJu
   – Conner/Diontae
   
4. Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – Way too expensive on FanDuel but a nice salary relief on DraftKings. This is the nuts matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Feel free to read the cash game article for more on Trubisky.
   
   Potential Stacks:
   – Robinson/Miller
   – Robinson/Mooney
   – Robinson/Graham
   – Robinson/Montgomery
   
   My personal preference is just using Robinson, but this matchup is sexy for all Chicago pass-catchers.
   
   Honorable Mention: Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Tom Brady

Running Backs

1. Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – Dalvin Cook is coming in at under 5% in ownership?! With no Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Edwards-Helaire on this slate, HOW THE HELL are people not interested in Dalvin Cook?
   
   Tennessee just got shredded on the ground against James Robinson… Kubiak is going to smash this Titans’ defense on the ground. Dalvin Cook is currently (-170) to score a touchdown, which only trails Derrick Henry (-200) and Ezekiel Elliott (-220). Get you some Dalvin Cook this week in your NFL DFS GPP!
   
2. James Conner ($6,700 DK / $7,100 FD) – I mentioned earlier my love for the Steelers’ offense this week and it starts with James Conner. Houston has been getting throttled (24th in run defense DVOA) by opposing running backs and a healthy James Conner is likely to do the same. If he stays around 5% ownership, jam him in.
   
3. Austin Ekeler ($6,800 DK / $7,500 FD) / Joshua Kelley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – The worst ranked run defense in the NFL is going up against one of the heaviest run-offenses in the NFL… Yet, Ekeler’s ownership is ~5% on DraftKings and Kelley’s is ~10% in this week’s NFL DFS GPP. What’s going on this week? What am I missing? They’re giving up 3 rushing touchdowns per game, lol.
   
4. David Montgomery ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD) – I’m loving that I’m seeing Montgomery more active in the passing-game and becoming a true, three-down running back. At this price, we don’t need a whole lot out of Montgomery to hit 3x value. I’m not in love with him this weekend, but we’ll need some salary relief and he offers that in a plus-matchup against Atlanta.
   
   Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Chris Carson, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jeff Wilson, Darrell Henderson, D’Andre Swift

Wide Receivers

**I do not need to write-up Seattle and Dallas wide receivers. They are all in incredible spots and you are likely going to want 1 of them (minimum) in every lineup you make this weekend**

1. Julian Edelman ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD) / N’Keal Harry ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – See Cam’s write-up for why I love these Patriots’ wide receivers. Trayvon Muller, Lamarcus Joyner, and Damon Arnette are arguably the worst cornerback trio in the AETY Model. Both Edelman and Harry have a massive target share and get plenty of looks in the red-zone.
   
   If Cam Newton doesn’t run all of the touchdowns in himself, Harry and Edelman are in for big games. Let’s just hope the Raiders can keep this one close and get the pace moving.
   
2. Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD ) – See cash game article for more notes. Absolute best matchup on the slate with Isaiah Oliver being the “top” cornerback for Atlanta, now that A.J. Terrell is out with Covid-19.
   
3. Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – Ronald Darby and Fabian Moreau? Odell should will run circles around these cornerbacks. I always pick on Darby, but this is more-so about the lack of ownership on Odell Beckham Jr. who’s seeing ~34% of the Cleveland target share. If Odell Beckham Jr. went crazy and broke this slate, would it truly surprise anyone?
   
   He’s too cheap for the upside he offers in this matchup.
   
4. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD) – Simply an easy pivot off of Diontae Johnson chalk week. JuJu is in the same matchup against Houston’s awful defense, yet he’s going to come in under 5% in ownership…
   
5. Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD) – Godwin is back to 100% health after passing concussion protocol. We picked on this rookie slot-cornerback last week with JuJu and didn’t see a whole lot of success due to the gamescript, but I’m going back to the well here as Tampa is likely to beat Denver through the air. Godwin is arguably the best slot receiver in football right now and has a ~4-inch height advantage over Essang Bassey. He’s going to be sub-5% owned.
   
6. Corey Davis ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – Where the hell are all the people who rostered Corey Davis last week? This is the best matchup on earth for Davis against a Minnesota secondary (that has been awful) who just lost Mike Hughes. Holton Hill is going to cover Mike Davis? Sign me up. I don’t understand how the field isn’t all over this salary-saving wide receiver, in a game total at 50-points. Use him on the other side of Dalvin Cook.
   
7. Darius Slayton ($4,900 DK / $5,500 FD) – Just a conviction play for me this week. With Sterling Shepard out and virtually everyone out for this San Francisco 49ers’ defense, Slayton should be in for a massive breakout game.
   
8. Larry Fitzgerald ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD) – While everyone goes to Kyler/Drake/D-Hop, where is the love for Larry Fitzgerald? Christian Kirk is out for this game and Larry Fitzgerald offers us some extremely cheap exposure to one of the most popular games on the slate (at sub-5% ownership).
   
   Vegas books are posting a 5.5 receptions prop for Larry Fitzgerald and that’s music to my ears. The AETY Model happens to love the value of Fitzgerald as well for NFL DFS GPPs. It’s not sexy, but I’ll have a lot of Larry Fitzgerald.
   
   Honorable Mention: DJ Moore, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Keenan Allen, DeSean Jackson, Michael Pittman Jr.

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

1. Evan Engram ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Same situation as Darius Slayton above. Engram is an extremely talented player and should own the target share this week with no Shepard and Barkley. Again, there is no one healthy on this 49ers’ defense.
   
2. Hayden Hurst ($4,700 DK / $5,700 FD) – With or without Julio Jones, I’m very interested in a sub-10% Hayden Hurst. He’s priced extremely affordable at a position that is just not very sexy this week, not to mention this offensive scheme bodes extremely well for its’ tight-end. If the Bears’ pass-rush can bring it, Matt Ryan will have to get rid of it quickly and Hayden Hurst should be the benefactor of those situations.
   
3. Noah Fant ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD) – He’s quite cheap on FanDuel and very affordable on DraftKings. Fant is one of my favorite GPP tight-ends in my lineups that have Chris Godwin. There aren’t many tight-ends as talented as Noah Fant and the targets are going to be there as they likely play catch-up all day long. He’s going to be under 2% owned.
   
   Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Dallas Goeddert

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

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