Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
In looking at how these MLB DFS playoff slates have gone, the key in each of the last two slates has been anchoring to two ace arms as we saw yesterday with Trevor Bauer/Tyler Glasnow and the day before with Gerrit Cole/Blake Snell.
Today we have just five games and 10 arms to choose from but we certainly are not lacking for K upside – as we have three arms who rank in the top 12 in K rate, all sporting 30% or higher marks in 2020. That list includes Yu Darvish, Brandon Woodruff and Luis Castillo.
Darvish ($9.8K) to me is the clear-cut top option on this slate, with the threat of some light rain at Wrigley being my only concern. The Cubs ace has dominated right-handed batters to the tune of a .073 ISO and 39.8% K rate in 2020 and the Marlins have 7 of their 9 hitters projected to hit from the right side.
Clayton Kershaw ($9.4K) has metrics that sit just a tick below the trio mentioned above but his 28% K rate and 13% SS rate are nothing to sneeze at and today he takes on a Brewers projected line-up with an absurdly high 29.9% K rate against LHP this season.
The last two slates have dictated the use of two aces as your anchor as pitching wins in the postseason and unlike the last few days – I do not think we have the viable pivot paths we have had on those slates.
Sorry, but when your pivots are arms facing the Dodgers/Braves offense (Woodruff/Castillo) – and guess what – they won’t be low owned because the pitcher pool is so shallow – I do not think you are getting any real ownership benefit to pivoting off Darvish/Kershaw.
Time to rock the KISS strategy today and keep it simple stupid.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
As of this morning we still do not have confirmation of the Oakland A’s pitcher – and let’s be clear, if they are insane and go with lefty Sean Manaea against the right-handed heavy White Sox – they will be my top stack by a wide margin. However, if they opt to use RHP Mike Fiers, I think it removes any “obvious” stack from this slate – which is great for GPP’s.
Now if this happens, I think we can get a bit weird in how we attack this slate with bats – and the place I am focused on is a game stack of the Reds/Braves.
This is not about attacking Luis Castillo and Ian Anderson as the starters in this game – but it is more about attacking two teams that just played 13 innings the day before.
Consider this – the Braves and Reds have 18 relief pitchers on their postseason roster (Braves have 10 and Reds have 8) and in yesterday’s marathon the two combined to use 12 bullpen arms (7 for Atlanta and 5 for the Reds). Said another way – the teams combined to use 2/3 of their bullpen arms in just one game!
So today, I think there is merit to playing the game theory here – the thought that these two teams get past Castillo/Anderson early and then it becomes about beating up on the back-end of a tired bullpen.
While Luis Castillo has been phenomenal this year, there is one constant with him and after writing daily MLB DFS articles for 5 years – you tend to remember these things – Castillo has serious home/away splits. That trend continued in 2020 as his ERA jumps 2 full points to over 4, his xFIP jumps half a point and all while his K rate decreases 6% as his walk rate increase 3%.
If you look at Castillo’s marks in his career on the road, they follow that 2020 trend and today against arguably one of the best offenses in the postseason – that could spell trouble.
Now Castillo’s “struggles” – if you can call it that – have come more against lefties as his .193 ISO mark to LHB is far higher than the .069 mark against RHB so it lends itself to Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis as the top 3 targets but remember – we are not simply playing against the SP in this game theory scenario so I have no issue prioritizing Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna with the idea they get through Castillo (either through runs or pitch counts) and into the bullpen early.
On the other side of this game, rookie Ian Anderson has a high K rate and high GB rate much like Luis Castillo (granted a far smaller sample size), but much like I made the case on the Atlanta side – I think there are ways to target the Reds bats against him.
This Reds projected line-up has 6 batters with .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season with 5 bats right in the heart of the order with .250+ marks including Castellanos, Votto, Suarez, Moustakas and Winker.
To me – the “core” guys like Casty/Votto/Suarez/Moose are the ways to play this and it becomes far more about pinch hit risk than anything else. We have seen this in nearly every postseason series that the benches get used quickly and I want to prioritize the guys I think get 9 innings of at-bats over the guys who may have he “best profile” against a starter they may only face 1-2 times before they get yanked.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Today is a fun GPP slate because while the pitching seems super straightforward, the bats are where I think you can really find your path to be different.
Not only is the Reds/Braves game stack one that allows you to attack two tired bullpens but I think Anderson/Castillo will end up drawing enough ownership where it becomes direct leverage as well.
There is a lot we need to watch before first pitch today – weather, starters being announced, lineups being released – and while Picks and Pivots is a first look – I will be in Discord talking up to the minute strategy until lock so that is where we really hone in on our attack today – so get in there, its the best place to really finalize your builds.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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