Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Division Series Breakdown
Welcome to the Division Round of the MLB playoffs and with it we have our first two game MLB DFS slate on Monday in the American League side of the bracket with the Yankees/Rays and A’s/Astros ready to battle.
At this point, with two game slates, I think arguing the game theory becomes far more important than simply telling you the best plays and that is how I intend to break this first slate down.
First though, let’s look back at Friday’s two game MLB slate to get an idea of how winning builds were set. The winning line-up in the $50K to first GPP went with a Flaherty/Sixto combo, stacking 5 Marlins against the chalk Yu Darvish, running it back with some Cubs and a one off Cronenworth play at 2B which got them a nice solo HR against their arm.
We are seeing as the postseason moves along that the pitching is going to be strong across the board and that it comes down to nabbing a few HR’s from your bats to really set your cash position. With this being Game 1 of the Division Series, we have elite arms on the mound once again with Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell, Chris Bassitt and Lance McCullers.
If we take a step back and think through how these slates are going – it is all about HR’s and so maybe the simple answer is to attack the most home run prone SP’s on the slate.
While Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell both offer elite K upside they are also the two arms on this slate most prone to giving up the long ball.
Cole has given up a 1.7 HR/9 rate with his trouble coming against LHB ( 2.7 HR/9 and .305 ISO). Snell meanwhile has given up a 1.8 HR/9 and will face a Yankees lineup with a .230 ISO mark against LHP since 2019.
On the other side of this slate we have Chris Bassitt who has given up just a .8 HR/9 rate with a minuscule .49 HR/9 rate to RHB which looms large against a Astros lineup that will have 6+ right-handed batters. Bassitt has 100 innings of work this season against right-handed batters and has not allowed a single home run.
Lance McCullers has a 0.82 HR/9 rate of his own and a 52% GB rate since the start of last season which is by far the largest mark of any arm on this slate.
So what does that all add up to?
There is no doubt Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell give you the best K upside on this slate based on the metrics/data we have – but that same data would also say they offer us the most likely path to getting some HR’s from our bats. The postseason is a different animal – I do not expect “stacks” to necessarily win us the day with big-time crooked numbers but instead can we attack the home run potential of offenses and hope that by going heavy with that team (4-5 batters), that we can grab the 1-2 HR’s that make all the difference?
So can we pivot off the field – stack against the two most popular arms and instead use McCullers/Bassitt as our pitching duo and hope they are able to keep runs off the board.
Stacking the Rays/Yankees gives us the chance to take some serious power bats – with the obvious Yankees being Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge who have .275 ISO+ marks against LHP since 2019 with Luke Voit, DJ LeMehieu and Gleyber Torres not far behind at .230-.240 marks of their own.
The best part of the Yankees – we know the bats that start are going to play – while we have far more PH risk on the Rays side of this game. While Yoshi Tsutsugo will lead-off against the righty in Cole, we saw in Game 1 of the Wild Card round that he was quickly pinch hit for when the Blue Jays went to their pen.
If you are home run hunting against Cole, I would stick to the Lowe(s) – Nate and Brandon – who offer up .210 and .260 ISO marks against RHP this season. I do wonder if we see Ji-Man Choi get a start here considering he homered in both games off Cole this season and is actually 9 for 17 in his career off Cole with 3 HR’s and a .700+ ISO.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
The wrap up here is – take your stand, and go after the game theory that we get 2 or 3 HR’s in this Yankees/Rays game and that Bassitt/McCullers are able to keep the ball in the park and give us solid run prevention outings with some K’s for good measure.
We will keep an eye on ownership but if Cole gets 80-90% ownership like Yu Darvish did on Friday, we saw that the Darvish fade and the Miami stack was actually the way to take down GPP’s.
Let’s get weird today!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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