NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown

Finally, we had a down week in NFL DFS Cash Games last week. I’m super pissed off on how much of a miss Kenyan Drake and Darrel Henderson were, but we’ll get right back on the success train this week. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 5, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries/postponed games, but there are a ton of great value plays at every position this week.
• Dak Prescott chalk week… I’m not a fan, but I get it.
• Mike Davis chalk week – probably a must play in cash games. Likely CEH as well (for me at least).
• Looks like a great week to get value WRs
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Crazy expensive and likely not to crack my cash game lineup, but it’s Patrick Mahomes. The floor is incredibly high with a 33.5 point implied team total against this putrid Las Vegas secondary.
   AETY Projection: 24.62 points
   
2. Dak Prescott ($7,400 DK / $8,700 FD) – You’ve all seen what Dak has been doing, lol. I’m still not buying in that the Giants can keep this one close and keep Dak’s foot on the gas pedal, but this Dallas defense is so bad that it’s unlikely they blow anyone out this year. As much as I hate it, Prescott is just fine for cash games this week.
   AETY Projection: 22.95 points
   
3. Kyler Murray ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Half man, half quarterback, and half running back. Kyler’s rushing floor speaks for itself and he’s likely to be in play for cash games on a weekly basis. I worry about the Jets’ ability to keep this game close, but Kyler is good for 19+ fantasy points every week.
   AETY Projection: 23.18 points
   
4. DeShaun Watson ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD) – Yep, I’m going back to the well of DeShaun Watson. The Jaguars are ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA, Houston’s offense is relatively healthy, Bill O’Brien is gone, etc. etc. I think this game has crazy shootout ability and I love the price-point here for DeShaun Watson. Hopefully he looks to do some damage on the ground as well. Watson in a dome with a 30 point implied team against a brutal defense is plenty for me to go back.
   AETY Projection: 23.83 points
   
5. Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD) – Hello, Mr. Value. Bridgewater’s price is criminally low against this Falcons’ defense (ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA). Matt Rhule’s offense has been quite productive and will not be slowed down in Atlanta this weekend. Bridgewater is the perfect pay-down QB for NFL DFS Cash Games.
   AETY Projection: 20.93 points
   
   Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Backs

1. Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800 DK / $9,000 FD) – Hard to not love Elliott this week despite Dallas losing yet another key offensive lineman for the season. I’m not likely to jam in Elliott into my cash game lineup, but it makes a lot of sense with the high Vegas total in this matchup against the Giants.
   
   Low-key, the Giants have been incredibly stout against opposing running backs (limiting then to under 3.7 yards per carry), but Elliott is just so active in this offense (both rushing and receiving) that it makes him quite difficult to fade… especially when 30% of the field is likely to use him in NFL DFS Cash Games.
   AETY Projection: 22.51 DK / 20.74 FD
   
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – CEH’s price makes it rather easy for me to fade Zeke Elliott in cash games. The snap counts continue to rise in favor of CEH and they’re an 11-point home favorite. Not to mention Las Vegas is the 30th ranked run defense. This one is easy, lock in CEH.
   AETY Projection: 20.27 DK / 18.62 FD
   
3. Mike Davis ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – Not going to lie to you, I was never a believer in Mike Davis, but his usage alone has made me a believer. It’s relatively cheap exposure to this CAR @ ATL shootout and everyone is going to roster Mike Davis. In cash, it makes a lot to sense to roll him out there. Atlanta’s run-defense isn’t half bad, but Davis is simply too active in the passing game to pass-up. He needs to be priced up near $7K.
   AETY Projection: 20.99 DK / 18.73 FD
   
4. James Robinson ($6,700 DK / $6,600 FD) – Damn near a freesquare on FanDuel, James Robinson is a fine cash game and GPP play this week against the 29th ranked defense in terms of run DVOA. Did you watch what Dalvin Cook just did to this defense? He’s no Dalvin, but he’s clearly a 3-down back for Jacksonville. He’ll be very active in this shootout on Sunday.
   AETY Projection: 20.57 DK / 18.99 FD
   
5. Kareem Hunt ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – I always love Kevin Stefanski running backs (usually it’s Nick Chubb… RIP for now) and will continue to love em again in Week 5. Chubb is going to be in for a big workload against a very stout Indianapolis defense, but I’ll back this outside-zone run scheme any day of the week. Cleveland’s offensive line is incredible and will pave plenty of lanes for Hunt to hit value.
   AETY Projection: 18.79 DK / 17.13 FD
   
6. Jerick McKinnon ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – If Mostert misses this game, I’m simply locking in Jerick McKinnon on DraftKings. The AETY Model loves this matchup for San Francisco running backs and McKinnon is in for a nice day if Mostert can’t suit up.
   AETY Projection: 18.28 DK / 16.53 FD
   
7. Antonio Gibson ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you need some salary relief, Antonio Gibson is your man this weekend. The Rams defense is very solid but they’re getting absolutely carved up by good running backs (averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 28th in run defense DVOA). I prefer Gibson more in GPPs, but if his salary makes the rest of your lineup sexy, ride him in cash games.
   
   We all know what Kyle Allen did with CMC last season. It’s checkdown time (let’s just hope those don’t all go to JD McKissic).
   AETY Projection: 14.65 DK / 13.32 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: David Johnson, Josh Jacobs

Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Ridley ($7,500 DK / $8,300 FD) – It’s very likely that Julio Jones is going to miss this game with his hamstring injury. This game is everyone’s favorite shootout so make sure you get a lot of exposure to Ridley if you’re into this game. Rasul Douglas and Donte Jackson do not have what it takes to contain Ridley at home in the dome… and we all know Atlanta’s defense is not going to get stops. It’s a Ridley Sunday.
   AETY Projection: 18.30 DK / 15.00 FD
   
2. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – No one is going to play JuJu, but this matchup against Nickell Robey-Coleman on the inside of this Philly secondary is one of the nut matchups in NFL DFS. You likely should just get your JuJu exposure in GPPs, but this is too good of a spot to leave him off this article.
   AETY Projection: 15.74 DK / 12.87 FD
   
3. Will Fuller ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD) – Jacksonville’s secondary is awful. Enough said. We love Watson and we love Fuller.
   AETY Projection: 15.28 DK / 12.77 FD
   
4. DJ Chark ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD) – Great price across the board for DraftKings and FanDuel. Chark is by far the #1 receiving threat on this Jacksonville offense and he’s likely to see 9+ targets in this shootout. Bradley Roby has been solid, but Chark is going to feast on him on Sunday. This is a mismatch made in heave for Minshew and Chark.
   AETY Projection: 15.32 DK / 12.64 FD
   
5. CeeDee Lamb ($6,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Darnay Holmes may be the worst slot-cornerback in the NFL. CeeDee Lamb seems to be getting a full run in this Dallas offense and that’s starting to phase out Michael Gallup just a bit. Lamb is in a smash spot in this matchup and has the world of talent to bring a lot of upside to the table here against the Giants. Cash, GPP, whatever it is, Lamb is a top-10 play for me this weekend.
   AETY Projection: 14.23 DK / 11.75 FD
   
6. Robby Anderson ($5,900 DK / $6,200 FD) – No need to go deep into this one. It’s cheap exposure to this Carolina passing attack against Atlanta’s secondary. Both Robby Anderson or DJ Moore make perfect cash game plays this week.
   AETY Projection: 17.70 DK / 14.52 FD
   
7. DeVante Parker ($5,900 DK / $6,400 FD) – Miami is a 9-point underdog on the road against a San Francisco secondary that is extremely beat up. Parker is a #1 wide receiver priced under $6K… That’s something I’m always targeting in NFL DFS. I don’t quite agree that the 49ers should be this big of a favorite, but I do love this matchup for Parker. Way too cheap.
   AETY Projection: 13.66 DK / 11.12 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus

Tight Ends

Not going to do much write-ups for the tight-ends, there’s so many in play this week.

1. Travis Kelce ($6,400 DK / $7,800)
2. George Kittle ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD)
3. Zach Ertz ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)
4. Evan Engram ($4,600 DK / $5,500 FD) – cheapest quality piece of exposure to the Dallas / New York game. He’s incredibly popular this week so I’m fine with you eating this chalk in cash games.
   
   Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst, Darren Waller, Chris Herndon, Eric Ebron

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns
5. Washington Football Team

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Teddy Bridgewater
RB: CEH
RB: Antonio Gibson
WR: DJ Chark
WR: DeVante Parker
WR: Robby Anderson
TE: Evan Engram
FLEX: Kareem Hunt
DST: Browns