Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday Slate Breakdown:
Just when we thought we were done – ANOTHER night of elimination avoided and we get ourselves some Friday Night MLB DFS!
Unlike the last few slates, we actually have multiple strong pitching options with Framber Valdez and Blake Snell in a rematch of Game 1 and Dustin May getting tabbed with the Game 5 start for the Dodgers. The only unknown is who the Braves will run out as they have only said, they will NOT run out Max Fried on short rest for Game 5 up 3-1.
I will say this – DraftKings pricing up #FreeSquare Christian Pache to $3.1K on a day we actually want to pay for pitching is very tilting. My gut instinct was to go Framber/Snell and lock in $2K Pache and be on my way – very crafty DK – VERY crafty!
It sounds like whatever the Braves end up doing – it is likely not a path we are going to prioritize considering the other options. Maybe folks will go there after Bryse Wilson dropped 24 DK points last night, but we have seen the range of outcomes using fringe arms against the Dodgers loaded offense (see Kyle Wright).
So your decision likely comes down to the Framber/Snell/May debate and with May being just $7K on DraftKings, it does offer you some serious salary relief on a night where we do need it. I think – as it has all LCS week – the decision comes down to picking on the Rays/Astros hitters or the dangerous Braves/Dodgers.
Valdez gets the best match-up on paper against a Rays projected line-up that has a 28% K Rate and after 8 K’s in Game 1, the path to value here is pretty clear.
Snell is intriguing because of the raw K ability, with a K rate over 30% since 2019 and a massive 16% SS rate however the Astros line-up is basically the worst on paper match-up (17% K rate) and with just 2 K’s in Game 1, how much will that impact folks decision making?
I think the decision for most will likely come down to Snell or May as their SP2 alongside Framber. With it being just a two game slate, the ownership will likely be similar on both these arms so I am not sure we get any advantage playing that angle.
What leads me to Snell over May is 1) The k pedigree for Snell is FAR greater than May and 2) Snell threw 105 pitches last game while May has not pitched more than 2 innings since the post season started.
If you end up going May, I would double down and stack the Astros hitters against Snell to maximize your leverage. As great as Snell can be, he can be hit by righties as his .210 ISO to RHB in 2020 would support.
So to me – any lineup with May – should probably have a Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Correa stack alongside it to attack Snell early in this game.
If you end up going with Snell, then the same logic applies on leverage – stack Braves against May and the Dodgers pen. May has been dominant against RHB, limiting HC and generating a high GB rate with low ISO so the match-up would say to focus on the lefties but with unknowns on how deep May will even pitch – I may simply work backwards into which Braves bats fit my build alongside the best stack of the night.
So once again – that is the Dodgers – and a Framber Valdez/Dodgers bats core is likely going to be at the heart of how I attack this slate.
The Dodgers lineup will be key to watch – will we get another start from Edwin Rios ($3.4K) after homering in back to back games? Getting his power and salary relief is a huge key in builds tonight -especially if we want to pay up for both Snell and Framber (and even May to an extent).
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Going into today – my initial reaction is to anchor to Framber Valdez in the highest K match-up on paper, and one he has already had success with – and align that with the Dodgers stack against what is likely to be a Braves bullpen day.
After that – it really comes down to Snell versus May and Astros bats versus Braves bats. I lean Snell just due to pedigree alone but if the builds work better with the May salary relief, then I am totally fine landing there once we have line-ups.
This may be it – it may not be – but I am going to keep saying it because every day I have – we get another day of MLB DFS – so let’s rock!
Time to dig in – let’s get it today!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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