NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown

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Week 6 was personally the best week of DFS of my life and what made it even better were all of the screenshots from the Win Daily members. Nothing gets me more fired up than seeing our team absolutely crush a NFL DFS slate. Let’s run it back again in Week 7.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 7, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• The player pool is HUGE. I personally am not a fan of DraftKings moving an 11-game slate up to a 12-gamer, but oh well. So many great options and value everywhere.
• Quarterback seems a bit slim for me. Kyler and Russ are going to draw a ton of ownership and it’s just tough to fade that game in general
• Gio Bernard and Alvin Kamara chalk week. You likely HAVE to lock in both in your cash game builds.
• Tons of good WRs for cash games this week.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

1. Kyler Murray ($7,100 DK / $8,400 FD) – Seattle’s pass defense has been torched on a weekly basis, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA. We don’t need to look into this matchup too much, lol. Kyler Murray’s rushing floor is second to nobody on this slate and a 55-point total clearly states this game is going to be up-pace and high scoring.
   
   Kyler is going to be the highest owned QB on this slate and it’s an easy decision to go with the public and ride Murray as your cash game quarterback here at home against Seattle.
   AETY Projection: 25.29 points
   
   2. Aaron Rodgers ($7,000 DK / $8,100 FD) – Assuming Aaron Jones is still highly questionable to suit up for the early matchup of Green Bay @ Houston, Aaron Rodgers should be heavily leaned on in a much needed bounce-back victory after completely laying an egg last week in Tampa Bay.
   
   Houston’s defense overall is terrible and the pace of this game should be one of the higher ones on the slate. If Aaron Jones plays, I’m not as interested in Rodgers, but if he’s out, I absolutely love Rodgers with a plus matchup on the road in the dome.
   
   Green Bay is simply way too efficient when they lean on Rodgers and this pass game. This is a great spot for Rodgers and this Packers’ offense as a whole.
   AETY Projection: 22.08 points
   
   3. Matt Stafford ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – If you want to pay down a bit at QB, there’s never a better matchup on the board than a QB against Atlanta (30th in pass defense DVOA). Hell, Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions and still had a season-best fantasy performance. You know the drill at this point in the season: use quarterbacks against Atlanta.
   AETY Projection: 21.36 points
   
   Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, Joe Burrow

Running Backs

1. Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DK / $9,300 FD) – No Michael Thomas. No Emmanuel Sanders. Carolina’s run defense (or lack thereof)… Wheels up for Alvin Kamara (-250 to score on most sports-books… sexy). Lock him in for your cash game lineups!
   AETY Projection: 25.05 DK / 21.64 FD
   
2. Kareem Hunt ($6,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – Kareem Hunt’s ownership is likely to be through the roof this week (as will Kamara’s and Bernard’s). It’s hard for me to get off of Hunt in my cash game lineups (and most lineups for that matter) because this matchup is too juicy for me to turn my back on.
   
   The Bengals are giving up over five yards per carry to opposing running backs and have been rather loose with pass catching running backs. Hunt is a pure three-down running back behind one of the best offensive lines in football. At this price, he’s likely a must-play in most DFS formats this weekend.
   AETY Projection: 21.73 DK / 20.22 FD
   
3. Chris Carson ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD – Simply way too cheap for a top-tier, three-down running back who is playing in the chalkiest game on the slate. Arizona’s run defense is slightly above average, but I’m not afraid of the matchup at all with how active Carson is in the Seattle passing attack. His floor is 4 catches in this matchup and should have plenty of opportunities to get into the end-zone.
   AETY Projection: 18.75 DK / 17.10 FD
   
4. Giovanni Bernard ($4,500 DK / $4,800 FD) – With Joe Mixon out, Gio Bernard is the easy, free-square play in Week 7. Use him in cash games.
   AETY Projection: 15.94 DK / 14.03 FD
   
5. Antonio Gibson ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD) – If you need another salary saver in addition to Bernard, Antonio Gibson should be that guy for you again this week. He never really does anything special, but this is the best matchup Gibson has had in quite some time. Dallas currently ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and literally get destroyed by opposing backs on a weekly basis.
   
   I hate how much JD McKissic we see for Washington each week, but Gibson is the more talented player and finally has low odds to score a touchdown this week (-105). Yea, that’s nothing special, but Vegas hasn’t shown Gibson that type of love all season. If you need the savings, ride Gibson.
   AETY Projection: 15.31 DK / 13.78 FD
   
   **Jamaal Williams is in play IF Aaron Jones is OUT
   
   Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, James Conner, D’Andre Swift

Wide Receivers

1. Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,900 FD) – If Aaron Jones is out, I want to do everything in my power to lock in Adams in my cash lineups. He’s going to be the heaviest owned WR on this slate and is matchup proof. I likely won’t make my decision on Adams until Sunday morning, but I know I really, really want him to fit in my cash lineup.
   AETY Projection: 21.25 DK / 17.61 FD
   
2. Kenny Golladay ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – #1 Wide Receiver against Atlanta. Do we need to say more? Lock in Golladay. He needs to priced up around $7,200 in this matchup on DraftKings.
   AETY Projection: 19.41 DK / 16.22 FD
   
3. Tyler Lockett ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD) – Classic case of me and the Seahawks wide receivers in cash games. On FanDuel, DK Metcalf is cheaper, use him. On DraftKings, Lockett is cheaper… so I’m using him.
   
   If you’re not playing Wilson or Carson in cash, you’re going to want one of these Seahawks’ pass catchers. We can’t fade this game.
   AETY Projection: 17.66 DK / 14.58 FD
   
4. Keenan Allen ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jacksonville is dead last in pass defense DVOA and Keenan Allen is an absolute target monster for Justin Herbert. The AETY model has Allen’s projected target share for 30% this week and that’s something to note in itself for your NFL DFS cash games.
   
   Vegas props on Allen are also through the roof with a 6.5 receptions player prop (juice is on the over). That’s wild.
   AETY Projection: 18.30 DK / 14.91 FD
   
5. Terry McLaurin ($5,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – I have no idea what DraftKings is doing with McLaurin’s price-tag. This guy just puts up points on a weekly basis and gets a juicy matchup against Trevon Diggs from the Cowboys. That’s a top-five matchup on this slate. Lock him in.
   AETY Projection: 18.21 DK / 14.80 FD
   
6. Diontae Johnson ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – We’ll likely need another salary saver at the wide receiver position, so welcome back, Diontae Johnson. I don’t love this matchup as much now that Adoree Jackson is likely back for the Titans, but he’s too cheap to not consider in NFL DFS cash games.
   
   Adoree Jackson is out. Much more confident in Diontae.
   AETY Projection: 11.15 DK / 8.91 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, DJ Moore, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, Dontrelle Inman

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce ($6,300 DK / $7,900 FD) – Clearly the top tight end on this slate. I hate paying down at tight-end, but this week I’ll likely have to. If you can find a way to build around Kelce, do it.
   
2. Hunter Henry ($4,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – Henry is averaging 7 targets per game but is priced in the mid $4K’s… This is a lay-up on DraftKings and a free-throw on FanDuel (I’m not sure what that means but wanted to stay on theme with basketball). Henry is by far the #1 value at the tight end position in the AETY Model.
   AETY Projection: 13.93 DK / 11.48 FD
   
3. David Njoku ($3,000 DK / $4,500 FD) – I personally think Harrison Bryant is a much more talented player than Njoku, but with Hooper out, Bryant is going to be leaned on for blocking first, running routes second. Njoku is an awful blocker but a quality route runner. He’s going to be extremely popular in DFS this week due to the price tag and I’m fine if you want to eat that chalk for the savings in NFL DFS cash games.
   AETY Projection: 8.39 DK / 6.77 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, TJ Hockenson, Jared Cook, Dalton Schultz, Logan Thomas

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Buffalo Bills
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. Los Angeles Chargers
5. Washington Football Team

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Gio Bernard
WR: Kenny Golladay
WR: Terry McLaurin
WR: Diontae Johnson
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Kareem Hunt
DST: Washington