Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 8 – A Look Back:
As we do every week, the first thing I do in my NFL DFS process is to look back at the previous week’s winning lineups and trends and for the second straight week, the Draftkings Milly Maker went with a Stars and Scrubs approach that paid off in a big way!
The big winner last week was ghartman314, who used a Kansas City passing stack, the two elite backs in Henry/Cook, a Metcalf one-off, and 3 punt values to take down the million-dollar top prize.
For the second straight week in this contest, we saw the winning build utilize 3 punt plays at their skill positions ($4K and under) to go top-heavy with their stars that carry them to ceiling games.
What may get over-looked is the continued correlation we talk about so often in GPP’s – as this lineup was built around a few key themes:
3:1 – KC 3 man stack (Mahomes, Kelce, Robinson) with a Jets run back (Mims).
1:1 DK Metcalf with the cheap Kendrick Bourne in a WR/WR stack.
We talk about this often but the 3-1 foundation stack is critical each week and then finding a 1 to 1 secondary stack has been a key secondary component to winning builds.
Before you go and simply click in plays – as yourself, what story does your lineup tell?
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 9 First Look:
Now, before we move TOO far away from last week – I want to give you an idea of where my process goes next – and that is to our Adjusted Expected Team Totals (AETT) here at WinDaily.
For the second straight week, the Chiefs sit atop this metric which takes Vegas team totals and adjusts it for fantasy relevant performances (ie. taking away points from kickers on FG’s and/or extra points).
For the second straight week, the Chiefs also come into the game with a double-digit spread and “blow out risk” but let’s not act like the Jets offense has any where near the talent of the opponent for KC this week – the Carolina Panthers.
So can we potentially go back to a similar 3:1 KC passing stack with the highest projected scoring team on the slate? Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are the clear 1-2 punch in any KC stack but finding that third wheel is where things get tricky.
Tyreek Hill is clearly the best option of the WR’s but we need to watch the status of Sammy Watkins this week who was able to return to limited practice and is officially questionable to play this week. Watkins is under $5K on DK so could be an interesting pivot off Hill if we need the salary savings and his return would really make it tough to use either DeMarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardman.
The snap count for this duo has fluctuated on a weekly basis, with Hardman seeing the spike last week 68% of the snaps as compared to Robinson’s 55%. The 9 targets were a clear season-high for Hardman but it is not like Robinson was forgotten with 5 targets of his own and his price at $3.2K versus $4.8K gives you some serious salary relief as GHartman314 utilized last week.
The Carolina side of this game will be fascinating to watch with the return of Christian McCaffery as the Panthers will add another explosive playmaker alongside Robby Anderon and DJ Moore. As Adam Strangis outlined in our Game by Game Breakdown – Anderson will get a match-up with Charvarius Ward who has allowed a 63% catch rate this season and has been victim to the big play which is exactly what we are looking for with the explosive ex-Jet.
The one play that may get overlooked is Curtis Samuel ($4.4K) – another cheap piece in this potential game stack that checks a few boxes for us when making our NFL DFS picks. Samuel is playing 75% of the snaps for Carolina and while you may think the return of CMC could hurt him, in Weeks 1 & 2 when CMC was active, Samuel played 75% and 70% of the snaps – with 10 targets over those two weeks.
If you watched that Thursday Night Football game against Atlanta last week, you saw the kind of game-breaking ability Samuel had on his gadget runs and the long TD pass. I found it interesting that the NFL Next Gen Stats highlighted the top 5 WR speed on go routes and this KC/Carolina game has 3 of the top 5 in Samuel and Tyreek/Mecole on the other side – which could set this up for a sneaky track meet!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 9 Values:
Now this week may not have the sub $4K punt value at WR we saw last week, but it absolutely is opening up with some sub $5K running backs who look like they have all the volume upside due to injuries.
Heading into Friday we have a few key names in this range to focus on:
- Seattle – With Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde ruled out again, it looks like it is the DeeJay Dallas ($5K) show as the lone healthy back in the Hawks backfield.
- Baltimore – With Mark Ingram once again doubtful, it paves the way for JK Dobbins ($4.9K) and Gus Edwards against the Colts. Dobbins exploded for 115 yards against a tough Steelers defense, playing 66% of the snaps last week.
- Miami – The Dolphins have officially ruled out Matt Breida after putting Myles Gaskin on IR and gross – its Jordan Howard ($4k) time in a pace up spot against Arizona.
While the value may not be as extreme as it was in previous week’s, living in this range at RB2 and Flex could be the path to allow you to stack and spend up other places. We saw similar paths two weeks back with Jamaal Williams and Gio Bernard who became RB1’s in the $4K price range on DK and were consistent plug and plays in top-heavy winning builds.
Mixing and matching in this range – could be an ideal GPP strategy that allows you to spend up where you really want to (QB/WR/TE and RB1).
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
So you are at the point where you want to start building your NFL DFS picks now – and the more we talk through the slate, the more the player pool starts to solidify for me.
As Adam broke down in his Game by Game and Stix outlined in his Cash Game Core – there are going to be some clear Running Backs we want to build around – including Dalvin Cook, Chase Edmonds and DeeJay Dallas – and as we have seen time and time again – winning GPP builds are often a heavy mixture of eating chalk with 2-3 pivots that make the difference.
I bring this up because a GPP build does not need to be 9 off the wall plays. You do not need to “fade Dalvin Cook” because he’s chalky and play Derrick Henry in a far worse match-up against the Bears at a similar price point just to be different. Instead – you can eat the chalk on the popular running backs in elite game environments and look to get different elsewhere.
This is where the KC/Carolina game stack becomes really interesting to me as at the point of this writing (Saturday AM) – only Travis Kelce is expected to be double-digit owned and he is barely over 10%.
So you can get exposure to a Kansas City offense with the highest projected AETT total in our WinDaily model and frankly – you can find some cheap ways to do so with Watkins (if in), or go to Hardman/Robinson if he is out again. You can also run it back with Anderson, Moore or Samuel – taking shots on game-breaking speed in a game script you expect will be pass-heavy to keep up with the KC aerial attack.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it.
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
