jason mezrahi 
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Ryan Tannehill (DK $16,800, FD $16,000)
Pivot: Derrick Henry (DK $16,200, FD $15,500)
Contrarian #1: AJ Brown (DK $15,600, FD $15,000)
Contrarian #2: Philip Rivers (DK $14,700, FD $12,500)
The Colts defense is one of the best in the NFL – and the run defense may very well be the best in the game – so Ryan Tannehill could be throwing the ball more than normal to move the football up the field. He’s no Lamar Jackson, so they will likely take a different approach than the Ravens did on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is second in the league in rushing (843 yards) behind Dalvin Cook and hasn’t had the same success in recent weeks – held under his usual benchmark of 100 yards in two of the last three games. While I wouldn’t categorize him as a contrarian play, he makes for an interesting pivot from Tannehill, who’s the highest priced player on both sites.
Perhaps the sharpest choice for captain this week is AJ Brown, and explosive playmaker who carries enormous upside into every matchup. He’s physical, he’s fast, and he won’t be deterred by the challenge of Indy’s stout defense. Corey Davis has seen a career resurgence in 2020, making him a solid option as well, and TE Jonnu Smith has been a feast-or famine fantasy producer this season with five TDs over his first four games and just one since (2-32-1 in Week 9 vs. CHI).
To further complicate things, Anthony Firkser has been the more productive Titans TE since Week 5. Making a captain selection is difficult because the Titans roll out a pretty balanced offensive attack, so I could see a drastic approach of playing the Titans DST at CPT on DraftKings in order to fit in all the studs.
Philip Rivers (who may get benched at some point in favor of Jacoby Brissett) gets back an important weapon in the relatively inexpensive T.Y. Hilton, who rejoins a WR corps that includes rookie Michael Pittman, the inconsistent Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson – who’s actually been targeted 19 times over the past three games.
Their RBs (rookie Jonathan Taylor, change of pack back Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins) have been a frustrating group for fantasy owners – since there’s no indication of who’s going to be the main producer. The best option is still probably Taylor, who is usually the early focal point of the running attack, but that could easily shift to Hines in a negative game script.
There’s no Jack Doyle (concussion) this week, so we can expect a few targets for Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, knee) and Trey Burton. Burton has more red-zone upside (with rushing TDs in consecutive games straddling the Week 7 bye), but last week we saw Alie-Cox find paydirt.
This game is going to be a grind, with both teams approaching full strength and the lack of an obvious game script – but I’m comfortable using lots of Henry/Titans DST and a smattering of Tannehill/Brown/Smith stacks with Rivers and some Indy skill players on the other side.
Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Focus too much on the sub-$3K punts on DK – there’s plenty of productive guys from $3-9K offering excellent upside.
DO: Deploy a balanced approach for the Titans – because that’s how they roll – and mix in some of their defense as Philip Rivers has not been great this season.
DON’T: Forget about Rivers/Hilton in GPPs, however, as they could be a game-breaking combo this week if Hilton isn’t limited.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Derrick Henry
- Ryan Tannehill
- AJ Brown
- Philip Rivers
- Jonnu Smith
- Corey Davis
- T.Y. Hilton
- Titans DST
- Jonathan Taylor
- Nyheim Hines
- Colts DST
- Zach Pascal
- Trey Burton
- Anthony Firkser
- Stephen Gostkowski
- Michael Pittman, Jr.
- Marcus Johnson
- Ryan Blankenship
- Jordan Wilkins
- DeMichael Harris
