Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 12 First Look
Welcome to Week 12 my NFL DFS friends! After a two-game appetizer on Thanksgiving Day, we get a full slate on Sunday to sort through with our NFL DFS Picks but before we get there – there is no better way to start Black Friday than with our very own deal here at Win Daily Sports.
Our Black Friday deal is simply out of control with EVERYTHING at Win Daily being 50% off – you can get a monthly all-access Gold membership for just $15 or lock in a year for just 50 cents a day or $180 for the year. Seriously – do not miss this. With the NBA just weeks away – there is no better time to join.
As we look toward’s Sunday’s slate we continue to have a cloud of uncertainty due to COVID-19 which could once again wipe a game off the slate before it even starts as the Steelers/Ravens game remains in serious jeopardy. However, we still have 11 games to choose from in our NFL DFS Picks and as I write this on Friday, there are a long list of injury tags which could open paths to value and another week of Stars and Scrubs!
As I always do here in Picks and Pivots, I like to get a first look “gut reaction” to a slate, and boy oh boy is my gut telling me something – and it has nothing to do with the Thanksgiving leftovers – OK maybe a little bit.
The Chiefs/Buccaneers has a slate leading Vegas total of 56 and this is the kind of offensive shootout that could have massive GPP takedown potential. The season-long pace stats don’t tell the true story of what this game could be as we have seen both teams really step up the pace in recent weeks as since Week 5, these teams rank 7th and 8th in the pace of play on offense and the Chiefs, in particular, are playing at the 3rd fastest pace over the last three weeks.
So you are telling me we get Patrick Mahomes ($8K) playing a high pace, going up a defense that just allowed Jared Goff to throw for 376 and 3 TD’s – let’s just say the humping monkeys will be flying in Discord come Sunday afternoon.
My man Adam Strangis teased this in his in-depth Game by Game Breakdown but this game script really sets up perfectly for stacking when you look at the defensive strengths and weaknesses. The playbook for attacking Tampa Bay has become crystal clear the past few weeks – you simply cannot run on them and it forces teams to go pass heavy and win through the air.
Over the past 5 weeks, every single QB that has faced TB has thrown for at least 2 TD’s and this group averaged over 22 DK points with names not nearly at the level of Mahomes – Goff, Bridgewater, Carr, Danny Dimes and Drew Brees.
What we could end up seeing is a one-sided play-calling attack from Andy Reid, attacking TB almost entirely through the air and we only need to go back two weeks to see what that could mean for the Chiefs fantasy production. Against Carolina, KC basically abandoned the run – rushing the ball only 11 times compared to 45 passing attempts and that kind of game script led to a massive day from Mahomes/Tyreek/Kelce.
In that game -Mahomes (35 DK points), Hill (36), and Kelce (29) all pushed for ceiling games and I could see a very similar pass-heavy game script where we can attack it in a very condensed fashion with this trio. Now, the trio is pricey on DraftKings with Tyreek Hill ($7.8K) and Travis Kelce ($7K) at premium prices at their positions but I think make for an ideal “Stars” stack in our Stars and Scrubs world.
Now if we play the game script that KC is throwing and scoring, it means that Tampa Bay will have to keep pace and I think it makes for an ideal run-back where Tom Brady and company are chucking to keep pace with the defending Champs.
What stands out to me is the pricing on Tampa Bay as there is not a single RB/WR over $6.1K which makes this a really strong way to get run back exposure without breaking the bank.
We have seen Antonio Brown’s price push up to $5.7K on DraftKings and is now neck and neck with teammates Chris Godwin ($6K) and Mike Evans ($6.1K).
Against the Rams, Brown was on the field for 62% of the snaps while Godwin (99%) and Evans (88%) so there is more on-field certainly with Evans/Godwin but the counter is that AB led the team with 13 targets despite the smaller snap count and that kind of target share in this game environment makes him a viable pivot. In any KC 3 man stack – I am going to try and find ways to run it back with 2 TB pass catchers.
Leonard Fournette ($4.9K) played 52% of the snaps compared to Ronald Jones at 36% on Monday Night Football and despite dropped 3 of his 4 targets, provides the best “game script”option in this backfield in a game we expect to be a shootout. Fournette is the clear passing down back and he still gets around 10 rushes per game so he offers a cost effective route to this Tampa Bay offense.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Finding that Value:
Cue up some Frank Sinatra – New York, New York.
It is not often that the Big Apple is known for providing cost-effective solutions but this week in NFL DFS, there are some serious value options that I think could find their way into my core.
What if I told you that this week, you could get a top 3 running back since Week 7 – one who trails only Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara in fantasy points – and you could do it at a $3K-$4K price discount?
Welcome to Wayne Gallman ($5K) season my friends!
Gallman has put up just under 16 DK points per game since Week 7 with a TD in every single game, with a team-leading 11 red zone touches during that time frame. That red-zone equity could really pay off this week in a game script against a banged-up Bengals squad where I could see the Giants DST getting this into a run-heavy game script for Gallman as they play with a lead. The Gallman and Giants DST ($3.2K) duo provides some strong stacking correlation at a cheap cumulative salary.
So now is the point of Picks and Pivots where I ask you to grab a drink – in fact, grab a few – you are going to need it.
Yes, because we are about to talk about the New York Football Jets.
Let’s start with the easy one – Denzel Mims ($3.5K) just remains FAR too cheap considering his role and target share as this is a player who has played 90% or more of the snaps in each of the last three weeks with 8 targets per game in each of the last two weeks.
Now the one “caveat” is the Jets will be going back to Sam Darnold this week and it feels weird to think that is a potential downgrade to Mims from Joe Flacco, but that is the reality right now as Flacco/Mims really seemed to find a groove the last two weeks. I am going to side with the snap count, targets and the breakout talent of Mims and use him as one of the “Scrubs” to help me afford the Stars in the KC-TB game.
Alright, kids – here we are. It is time to talk about it. Frank Gore ($4.3K) is the lone healthy back in the Jets backfield and we get a REVENGE game against Miami!
Listen, I don’t like it. I hate it. I want to vomit more writing him up than I did after our Win Daily Thanksgiving live stream where I chugged beers in a flying squirrell onesie – but this is 2020 and things are weird.
Gore is going to get all the workload with Perine on IR – he played 60% of the snaps last week against the Chargers and the volume/snap count is just so grossly secure for a 74 year old running back on a winless team – but as we saw with Adrian Peterson on Thanksgiving – all it takes is for the old man to fall into the end zone a few times and you are cooking with gas.
Oh wait – you thought I was done? If we are going with Gore – I actually think a mini-stack with a punt Jets DST ($2.1K) could pay off in a big way.
The Miami offensive line was a mess last week, giving up 6 sacks to the Denver Broncos and with so much uncertainty with Tua and the potential for some Fitzmagic – I have some serious interest in the Jets defense that despite giving up points, showed last week they could get pressure on the Chargers with 3 sacks and went for 4x value with a fumble recovery, blocked punt and a safety.
I have been saying this all year about the Jets. Adam Gase and company were going to win a meaningless game and somehow J-E-T-S their way out of Trevor Lawrence.
It is going to happen – and I have a weird feeling this is the week it happens – all aboard a gross Jets stack this week. All a freaking board.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Heading into Sunday, my strategy remains consistent as we look to unlock a Stars and Scrubs build with my focus around getting a game stack of the high octane Kansas City and Tampa Bay passing games.
Now going this route requires value but by Saturday morning even more value has opened up with a few key injuries. First and foremost – Todd Gurley is OUT which gives us Brian Hill ($4K) at minimum priced in a featured/expanded role.
Looking for value WR’s? Well, our projections have four WR’s projected for 3x value including both Jacksonville WR’s in Cole and Shenault as they will see expanded roles with Chark/Conley ruled out.
It happens almost every single week where these Stars and Scrubs builds essentially fall into our lap and with a focus on an elite game in TB/KC – all it takes is 1-2 punts to make it work and well, the closer we get to lock, the more of them fall into our player pool.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
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