David Stowe 
NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns:
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.
Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers:
Chalk: Aaron Jones $15,600
Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,100
Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $18,900
Contrarian #2: David Montgomery $13,200
Contrarian #3: Allen Robinson $15,000
Vegas: 44.5 Point total Packers: -8
Weather: Nothing major to report, 10-15mph wind, mid 30’s temp
Vegas is telling us threat they are expecting the Packers to smack the Bears around a bit with Green Bay being 8 point favorites. I’m inclined to agree. Rodgers has all of his weapons back and the Bears are now short Nick Foles and are turning back to Mitchell Trubisky. (update: Marquez Valdez Scantling had a mid week achilles injury and is questionable)
Our models have Aaron Jones as the big chalk at captain tonight at around 19 percent and for good reason. As eight point favorites you would expect a heavy dose of Jones and Jamal Williams to round out the end of what I would expect to be a sloppy offensive outing from the Bears who have the most inept offense in the NFL. Technically Davante Adams is projected as the second highest but I think the better pivot would be to Aaron Rodgers. Aaron has every weapon at his disposal tonight (update: Marquez Valdez Scantling had a mid week achilles injury and is questionable) and while I don’t think it’s possible to stop Davante they may be able to slow him just enough to make that $18,900 price tag too steep of a price. I am and always will be a Matt Nagy hater, I’ve made it clear that I think his play calling is stupid. He runs more gadget plays than normal plays. But, if he can get out his way and actually attack the Green Bay weakness which has been for years their run defense the have a narrow path to keeping this close which would make David Montgomery an intriguing captain play. I would expect his ownership to be under 5% at captain tonight. Likely won’t pay off but all you need is a shot in showdown. Rounding out my captain spot is Allen Robinson just due to pure talent. He’s in such a horrible position as a receiver but he keeps producing. He’s gonna be behind the eight ball tonight though as he gets the Jaire Alexander treatment tonight and there aren’t many players who can do anything with that but if we’re expecting the Bears to play from behind he’ll get plenty of chances to break free.
Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)
As per usual, kickers are in play. If I were to roll a defense tonight it would be Green Bay considering who is throwing the ball. It’s going to be interesting to see if Mitchell can get through his reads to his second and third receivers.
Packers: Allen Lazard, Jamal Williams, Defense, Robert Tonyan, Mason Crosby
Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, Jimmy Graham, Darnell Mooney, Cairo Santos, Cordarrelle Patterson, Anthony Miller
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
