Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 13 Look Back
Well hello friends – we have made it to Week 14 of the NFL season and that means we are in the Fantasy Football playoffs (well some of us anyways) and we get the home stretch of NFL DFS action!
Before we jump into NFL though – our NBA DFS season is days away and our WinDaily promo right now is OFF THE CHARTS. For $149 you not only get NBA but you get – EVERY SINGLE SPORT here at Win Daily. Time to join kids.
As we always do here, before we look forward – we always look back – and that means a quick peek at what it took to take down GPP’s in Week 13.
As you can see from the Milly Maker winner below in week 13, the NFL DFS picks were a tad off the wall with a double tight end build wrapped around a little Derek Carr/Darren Waller mini-stack. This build went far less stack-heavy, bucking the trend we have seen up to this point in the fantasy year.
By and large, this is one of the least correlated lineups we have seen this NFL DFS season but the one takeaway I did have was how they opted to go far more balanced and ignore the high-priced stars like Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and DaVante Adams.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 14 First Look:
Holy Moses this slate is tasty.
Remember a week ago where we had only a handful of pay up spots and not a ton of high total games we really wanted? Yeah, well this 13 game slate is ENTIRELY different – it is straight up loaded with studs with 4 games that have 50+ totals and 2 more with 49.5 (so we can add them) – meaning that nearly half the games on this slate are projected as shootouts.
As you look at the highest projected scoring games on the slate, I do think there is one “trend” as I dig through my early NFL DFS Picks and that is the lack of desirable run-backs and stacking spots.
- Packers/Lions – We have clear studs with Rodgers, Jones, and Adams but with the Lions banged up, who exactly are you looking to “lock in” on the Detroit side?
- Jaguars/Titans – We got ourselves a “smash spot” for Mr. Henry but are we really starting our week looking to target a Mike Glennon led passing game on the other side?
- Colts/Raiders – This is the “balanced” game that lacks the stars in the other spots and sorry Mr. Carr, you cannot face a Gregg Williams gift defense every week.
Now, we do not HAVE to stack or always run back these high total games for DFS so you could make the argument to just play the stars from these games which means the Packers trio of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and DaVante Adams taking on a Lions team that they, well more accurately Mr. Jones destroyed earlier this season to the tune of 48.6 DK points on 200+ yards and 3 TD’s.
Aaron Jones ($7.6K) is just the fourth-highest priced back on DraftKings and his price point and demonstrated upside make him an ideal way to get exposure to a Packers team with a slate high 31 implied team total. The Lions have not just given up one big game to Jones, they also surrendered 42 DK points to Dalvin Cook where he ran for 200+ yards and AVERAGED 9.2 YPC and just last week surrendered 27 DK points to David Montgomery. The ceiling is sky-high here for Jones and could be all the exposure you need to the Packers if the game script works in his favor.
The fact that Jones is the fourth-highest priced running back, tells you how loaded this position is with Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffery and Derrick Henry all in the player pool and this position alone is such a great example of the slate overall – so many elite plays in good match-ups that you are going to want to find ways to get as many studs into your build as possible.
Any time we have this many stars on a slate in good spots, the simple reality is that we know a few will have ceiling games, and making sure we have multiple of them in our builds is going to be the key to cashing.
Christian McCaffery ($9.2K) looks primed to be back in our lives this week and after playing just three games this season, I do wonder if he will be the forgotten stud among this group but lets realize that when CMC is on the field, he gives you high ceiling games every single time. I am sure some will play the wait and see approach – because they did the same thing against KC back in Week 9 and all he did was drop 37 DK points with 18 carries and 10 targets out of the backfield.
With the Panthers potentially being down multiple offensive weapons due to COVID – it could be a ceiling spot for CMC once again and if he’s healthy enough to play, he is healthy enough to be worth every penny of his DFS salary! UPDATE – CMC was limited on Wednesday and was not seen at practice on Thursday with a new injury he somehow picked up during the by week which puts his status in serious jeopardy for this weekend.
Last but not least is Mr. December – Derrick Henry ($8.7K) who gets an elite match-up against Jacksonville. Henry let us down last week at mid-teen ownership with just 7 DK points but this was really game script driven as the Browns jumped out to a massive 38-7 lead which forced Henry into a play from behind role which limited his value. This week against the Jags, with a 30 point implied team total and touchdown+ spread – this could be the game script that gets King Henry back into a ceiling environment.
Now, I touched on this before but the way this slate is setting up is that we have SO many studs that I think you need to have 2-3 in every build because those ceiling games are what is going to drive the cash line. That said – I think there is a path to locking in ALL THREE of the elite backs here this week – building around CMC, Henry AND Jones in a trio that could absolutely get you to the cash line by themselves.
Now before I move on entirely – the one guy I didn’t touch on is Dalvin Cook ($9.4K) who is a fascinating NFL DFS discussion this week. Cook is an obvious stud but among these backs mentioned, he has the clear worst match-up against Tampa Bay – where as guys like Henry and Jones get bottom 3 defenses against the run, Cook has to face a top 3 defense against fantasy running backs. Now add in the fact that he is also the priciest of the crew and you can see why most will skip over him.
That my friends, is exactly why we need to have interest. Think about it – with so many pivots and the easy match-up differentiation among these backs – we are likely to see a scenario where Dalvin Cook is sub 5% owned. A running back with all the snap count, coming off a 40 touch game and who has 8 red zone touches in 2 of his last 3 games – will be virtually un-owned.
The one under the radar news piece this week is the status of Alexander Mattison who was out last week and remained out of practice as of Thursday due to an appendectomy. If the backfield is all Cook’s again this weekend, at low ownership – match-up be damned, we are riding with Dalvin again!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Finding that value stack
Now, playing all three elite running backs on DraftKings will leave you in a spot where you have just $4K per player for the rest of your build. Not the spot most people want to begin with but if you know anything about me and Picks and Pivots – it is that I never shy away from Stars and Scrubs!
In order to make this work you need to find a cheap passing stack and there is one that really stands out to me this week based off their pricing and potential upside.
Sing it with me – “Hurts so good….come on baby make it hurt so good!”
That is right, it is officially Jalen Hurts ($5.1K) times in Philadelphia as the Eagles made the switch to a new QB1 as they welcome the Saints into Philly on Sunday.
I went back and watched the second half of the Eagles game last week and what I saw from Hurts in a negative game script as Philly was well behind at the point in which he came in, was a QB that would quickly escape the pocket but it was not always just a pull-down and run scenario. Hurts would step up in the pocket, elude pressure and if the shot was there he took it – if not he would pull it down and run for positive yardage. We saw beautiful throws downfield to Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward and his rushing ability was clearly on display anytime his guys were covered and he simply took was he could from the defense on the ground.
The rushing upside and ability for $5K is really what sets the tone here when looking at Hurts for your NFL DFS picks. We saw it in Taysom Hill’s first few starts that his rushing ability alone set a floor that also gave him a massive ceiling due to his TD equity and as we saw last week against Atlanta – once you open up the passing game, it gives him so many more paths to fantasy production.
Hurts has the kind of dual-threat ability we covet in DFS – a player who gives you a solid floor because of the rushing skillset who also has the downfield arm strength to crush this price tag and go 4-5 times his salary.
While I do think you could play Hurts as a stand alone play in cash games, for GPP’s there is even more appeal in stacking because there is not a single Eagles passing option over $5K on DraftKings (you see where I am going with this right?)
Now the tricky part is that we simply do not know how the offense will look with Hurts at the helm and trying to decipher target share etc. becomes a difficult task. Much in the same way that folks avoided the Saints skill players when Taysom took over due to the unknown – I could see the DFS community taking the same approach here with Hurts and the Eagles.
In watching Hurts operate last week there were two key takeaways albeit in a limited sample. First was that Hurts was able to take the shots downfield that Wentz was unable to do as you can see with the beautiful throw to Jalen Reagor ($4.4K) posted above. Reagor has the speed to pay off at this price tag and considering his 70%+ snap count, he makes for an intriguing pairing with Hurts.
Greg Ward ($3.1K) has seen his snap count steadily tick up (71% last week) while Travis Fulgham has gone from 96% two weeks ago down to 40% last week. Ward was an obvious target for Hurts last week including a deep touchdown pass and at just $100 over the minimum on DK, he gives you another punt stacking partner.
The tight end position may be the “safest” way to attack the Eagles with Dallas Goedert ($4k) and Zach Ertz ($3.7K) giving you solid options to fill your TE slot with minimal investment. Goedert still saw 84% of the snaps last week even with Ertz back and overall the Philly TE’s combined for 11 total targets.
Now – if we take the approach of stacking the Eagles passing game, you can get 3 skill players from Philly for an average cost of just $4K per player on DK which is really appealing and it allows you to actually get an interesting run back that I didn’t set out to build with – but fits nicely in Michael Thomas ($7.1K).
MT has now had two 100 yard games with double-digit targets since Taysom Hill took over and after seeing what DK Metcalf and Davante Adams did to this Philly secondary the last two weeks – another 20+ DK point outing could be on the horizon.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Writing this article early in the week is always meant to be a first look but it is helpful to give you an idea of slate context and what is possible. The sheer amount of studs on this slate in elite spots makes me lean heavily towards a Stars and Scrubs build that will allow us the ability to get 2-3 high octane plays in our build.
This build always requires SOME value to open up and frankly, that path has opened up every single week between injury and COVID news, so I am confident it will once again.
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Let’s talk about the slate in Discord – listen into our shows on Sirius XM and last but not least – Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
