Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans to the first Picks and Pivots of the 2020-2021 season as we kick off opening night with a two-game slate and plenty of big tournaments to be won!
As one of the lead NBA DFS analysts here at Win Daily Sports, I am incredibly excited for this upcoming year with our expanded suite of tools, projections, cheat sheets, daily content, and expert advice all for a fair price point to give you an edge!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Opening Night
If you are new to Picks and Pivots, the focus of this daily NBA DFS article will not simply be to “give you the best picks” – what our goal here each day will be is to break down the slate strategy and help you think through the process in building your lineups with a tournament focus.
On Tuesday’s first night of the NBA season, we have just two games in our player pool so the “strategy” options become far more prohibitive especially with such star heavy rosters to sort through, without much value.
First and foremost – we are all excited to have NBA DFS back in our lives, but remember to practice strong bankroll management here to start out – especially on a two game slate where we will have a tremendous amount of roster overlap.
Now in looking at the two games on tap – Golden State versus Brooklyn and the Lakers versus Clippers – we have an interesting dichotomy of the “known” versus the “unknown.”
The two LA teams have re-tooled around the edges of their roster but by and large, these are the same teams expected to be Western Conference front runners on the backs of LeBron/AD and Kawhi/PG13.
Meanwhile, we get our long-awaited first look at the Kyrie/KD Brooklyn Nets as they will take on a new look Warriors team that will welcome back Steph Curry alongside newcomers James Wiseman and Kelly Oube Jr.
The overarching theme of this slate at first glance is the top-heavy star power we have across all four teams and he corresponding challenge of the lack of value which will make it critical to think through the game scripts and paths we want to take in our roster builds.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Choosing from the Stars
The first decision point on this slate is how you intend to filter through the stars as we have seven high-ceiling stars that are priced at $7.8K or higher on DraftKings,
You will notice the odd number of stars among the four teams, as while most teams have dual studs – it leaves Steph Curry ($9.5K) as the lone big dog on the Warriors and for that reason alone, I think it makes him a priority #1.
NBA DFS is a game of volume and usage where we want our stars to be ball-dominant players that the offense runs through and with Klay Thompson sidelined, the Warriors offense is going to rely heavily on Curry. In the preseason, Steph not surprisingly led the team with a 33% usage rate, and over the last two years with Klay off the court, it aligns with the 32% usage we saw Curry hold in a limited sample size.
In that scenario, Curry was putting up 1.6 FP per minute, which puts him on pace to exceed 50 DK points in his usual 30+ minute role in a game that will be played at a fast-paced and is reflected with a high Vegas total. To me, Curry is building block #1 on this slate.
The Brooklyn side of this game is going to be far more of a dice roll as we get to see Kyrie Irving ($8.5K) and Kevin Durant ($9.8K) for the first time in a regular-season game together under new Nets coach Steve Nash.
In a tiny sample size this preseason of just 30 minutes, neither Durant or Irving put up a usage rate of 30%, and that concept of deferring to the other star is what typically caps the upside of these high dollar stars when they share the court with another Alpha Dog.
Brooklyn ran at a top 10 pace last season and we saw something similar in the shortened preseason as Coach Nash has already publicly stated he intends to push the pace and bring elements of the “Seven Seconds or Less” offense with him that him and now Assistant Coaches Mike D’Antoni/Amar’e Stoudemire ran in Phoenix.
Could this be a scenario with Kyrie and Durant share the usage but get to their ceiling through volume in a fast-paced attack? Brooklyn has the highest implied total at 118 of the four teams on the slate and while some may take a wait and see approach, I think Brooklyn is going to come out on National TV with the world watching to put on a show.
The decision of Kyrie OR Durant is likely going to be site-specific. On FanDuel, Durant is $500 cheaper than Kyrie while on DK, Durant is the second-highest priced player on the slate and a solid $1K+ more than Kyrie. On a slate where every dollar matters, price is going to go a long way to determine which Brooklyn star I utilize.
The defending champs – are well, largely the same story as they were last season – a fantasy team that is largely Anthony Davis ($10K) and LeBron James ($9.5K) and a bunch of noise.
Similar to what we outlined with Brooklyn this preseason, neither AD nor LeBron had higher than a 30% usage rate in the playoffs last season but LeBron did lead the team with a 31% rate in the regular season.
This match-up against the Clippers last season was “balanced” when it came to the fantasy output from AD and LBJ as James averaged 51 DK points over 4 games and AD averaged 47 DK points. LeBron was the ceiling play, going for 55 and 57 in two games, while Davis was far more “floor” with 48-49 DK points in 3 of the 4 meetings.
There is not a massive pricing discrepancy between the two, which leads me to positional scarcity, and on DraftKings where AD is Center eligible, easily the weakest position on the slate – he may be building block #2 behind Mr. Curry.
On the LAC side, much of the same story applies as Kawhi Leonard ($9.1K) led the team with a 32% usage rate last regular season with Paul George ($7.8K) not far behind at 29.4%.
The range of outcomes for these two stars were far more variant than what we saw on the Lakers side in the 2019-2020 match-ups. Kawhi averaged 47 DK points per game over 4 games with the Lakers but that mixed a floor game of 32 DK points with a ceiling game of 62 DK points. George essentially showed the same thing with a 44 DK point average with a floor game of 33 DK points and a ceiling game of 51.
The interesting takeaway here is that the floor game for one star coincided with the ceiling game from the other so there is far more merit to “picking one” of the Clippers duo as they rarely hit ceiling together.
If you look at the Custom Projections here at Win Daily Sports – you can see how the star power on this slate is all expected to deliver and do so at 5x value which is a critical bench mark for returning value on DraftKings.
Depending on the site you play, I think your approach for the stars will vary significantly. On FanDuel you can lock in 3-4 of the stars without really having to get cute anywhere but on DraftKings, going 3 stars feels like the max before you enter some really dicey punt territory.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Building Your Roster
If you have all followed Picks and Pivots before, you know I love me some Stars and Scrubs builds. Are you minimum-priced? Well, then Ole’ Mr. 2Lock is interested.
Here is the thing though – this slate does not have enough value to be TOO Stars and Scrubs heavy. It is always tempting to jam in the stars but when you find yourself at a point in your build where you are talking yourself into Jeff Green, maybe we need to scale it back.
That does not mean we do not have value, however – there are some spots we can target due to early season injury news.
The biggest news is that Draymond Green will miss Opening Night and as such Eric Paschall ($3.8K) will take his starting spot and become the chalk du jour value play. Over the last two years with Klay/Draymond off the court, Paschall is a nearly an FP/minute producer and on a slate without much obvious value – his starting role, secure minutes, and ability to produce across categories will make him likely the highest owned play on the slate and by far the highest PP/$ player in our model.
On a site like FanDuel, you can make the argument that Paschall is the only value you need – but on DraftKings, he becomes a near necessity and frankly he is just a starting point.
The other injury news we have to watch for is with the Clippers as Marcus Morris is OUT after sitting out the entire preseason with a knee injury, allowing Nicolas Batum ($4.1K) to draw the likely opening starting assignment.
Not only does this give Batum a clear path to minutes but it also weakens a Clippers bench unit that without Batum, is frankly – quite underwhelming. With Montrezl Harrell now on the Lakers, the Clippers bench unit really is condensed now down to Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, Lou Williams and Ivica Zubac.
Personally, I think Kawhi/George are the stars I am least likely to pay up for – and so I think you can get your Clippers exposure with the second unit with a high upside scorer like Lou Williams ($5.4K).
With Avery Bradley and Danny Green no longer on the Lakers, they have opted to go a little offense/defense with their acquisitions of Dennis Schroder/Wes Matthews and that could be a match-up that Williams is able to exploit as he commands all the second team usage! I want upside in GPP’s, not guys that will simply “get me there” and Lou Will is one of the few mid-range plays with the ability to break a slate when he gets hot.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Normally two game slates will be far more condensed in terms of thought process but with this being the first set of games for the season, I think we really have to re-acclimate ourselves with the rosters and lineup building process for NBA DFS.
Stepping back – on DraftKings, I think we need to go with a three-star build with Steph Curry and Anthony Davis as the top two options and the coin flip between Kyrie/Durant depending on pricing.
Stepping down and plugging in the “Free Square” of Eric Paschall, leaves you living in the mid-range and the key is finding minutes security.
My advice would be not to get cute and overthink the slate. If you start finding yourself debating if Jared Dudley will get you minutes, maybe grab a beer and hit the “clear roster” button. Let others try and guess – let’s take the clear path to minutes and fantasy production when we can.
Guys and girls – we are BACK and I am so excited to rock this NBA season with you all. Let’s ride!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
