Gary Gustafson 
Happy Sunday Funday my NBA DFS friends! While many may turn their attention to a day of football, for those of us willing to put in work on the NBA grind, we can find strong profit on these weekend slates especially ones that start at 7 PM EST where people “chase” after a bad day of NFL and throw lineups at NBA. So let’s get an edge early with our NBA DFS Picks and get another big day of profit.
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – A Look Back
Before we jump into Sunday’s slate, I think it is valuable that we take a quick look back at what was a monster Saturday for me and many of the Win Daily Sports members who followed our models and tools to big time profits.
Saturday’s slate was largely dictated by the immense value we had, and we saw it in our custom projections model where ~10 players were projected for 7x value and that trend has been consistent to start the season with the value being far too cheap, allowing us to easily stack up multiple stars.
On Saturday, the model was all over Bismack Biyombo, George Hill, and a wildly under-priced Christian Wood and all that PP/$ value made it insanely easy to lock in the best play on the slate – James Harden, who despite being without John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins – was ONLY 60% owned in Single Entry contests. We say it all the time – but let others make the mistakes – and in this case, 40% of the field was dead on arrival for fading Harden – and they say the edge is gone!
Listen, the models have been shouting this out to us on a daily basis but the value to start the year on DraftKings has been off the chart and for as long as that is the case – we need to lean Stars and Scrubs on a daily basis with our NBA DFS picks.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday’s Slate
The headline on this slate at first glance is simple – WATCH THE NEWS.
We have multiple stars with injury designations that could flip this slate on its head as Russell Westbrook could sit on the B2B, Karl-Anthony Towns left last night’s game with a wrist injury and was quoted as being “seriously sore” heading into today against a Lakers team that has Anthony Davis listed as questionable.
There are two key steps to building NBA DFS lineups today:
- Watch the news and react – we are going to get big stars sitting and that changes the complexion of the slate.
- Make sure you check our custom projections to see how players being ruled out changes the value and I am not talking about the obvious names. Our model had Jae’sean Tate as one of the best values on Saturday and he proceeded to drop 7x value at less than 5% ownership.
Assuming Westbrook sits, the first player in our builds will be Bradley Beal ($8.9K) – As Adam Strangis pointed out in his FREE Cash Game Breakdown, it is laughable that DK dropped his price knowing that Westbrook was likely to sit – take the free square and move on people.
The other big news will be the status of KAT which could push Naz Reid ($4.2K) into our core builds against the Lakers. Last year with KAT off the court, Reid in 400 minutes saw a 25% usage rate and 1.12 FP/M.
Go check the game logs from last season once KAT was shut down via Statmuse – it is a thing of beauty. In the 12 games he played without KAT down the stretch, he averaged 27+ DK points which would exceed 6x value at today’s $4K price point, and with demonstrated 40+ point upside, he is the kind of value you simply do not overlook.
The other spot I am going to be all over today, once again, is the Brooklyn Nets who continue to impress in the early going with one of the fastest-paced attacks in the NBA. Today they take on the Charlotte Hornets, a team playing at a top 10 pace since the start of the preseason (no surprise with their roster) and with a bottom 10 defensive rating, this could be a spot once again where Kyrie Irving ($9.1K) snd Kevin Durant ($9.4K) can feast.
This duo was basically ignored on Christmas Day, with mid-teen ownership on just a 5 gamer, so I am fascinated to see if the masses continue to overlook the upside that exists here in this Brooklyn attack. The key is going to be ensuring they get 4 quarters of run so they hit their ceiling and that means running it back with some Hornets pieces.
Terry Rozier ($7K) leads the Hornets in usage at 28% and would be the first man I would look to run it back with. The other player I really like here is PJ Washington ($5.4K) as the Nets are going to push the pace and I think Washington is the big man that will be tasked with massive court time, especially if Cody Zeller is out again.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate at first glance is going to be heavy Stars and Scrubs assuming the news breaks as we laid out here. Plugging in 2-3 value plays, including Naz Reid, gives you massive flexibility to grab multiple stars and I think passing on that path will once again leave you chasing points as we saw it on Saturday.
I will be in our NBA Discord all day talking plays and watching some NFL – let’s keep the hot streak going!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
