Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back my NBA DFS family as we look tonight towards a seven-game NBA DFS slate. Oh wait, Boston/Chicago has been PPD so we are down to a six-game NBA DFS slate which is perfectly sized – oh wait, the Sixers/Heat is at risk of playing too? Well my friends, this could be a five-game slate before too long so buckle up because it is going to be a wild one!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
First and foremost – the #1 rule playing NBA DFS is that if you are not able to watch the news and be around before lock to react, you simply skip the slate as NBA is the most volatile news driven DFS sport of all. Now, take that normal volatility and add in COVID-19 and you have a total dumpster fire which is what we start out with today.
The Sixers/Heat game is at serious risk of playing as Miami would need two of Meyers Leonard, Kelly Olynk, or Gabe Vincent (all of whom are questionable) to play just to have the required 8 players to play this game. Meanwhile, on the other side of that game, the Sixers will still be short-handed due to their own COVID protocols but it does appear that Ben Simmons will return while we need to watch the status of Joel Embiid on a B2B.
Oh you thought we were done?
Let’s see, the Lakers duo of Anthony Davis and LeBron James are both questionable (again), the Rockets list John Wall AND Eric Gordon as questionable which would put James Harden into must-play territory if they missed, Kyrie Irving remains MIA for Brooklyn, DeMar DeRozan will miss this game with OKC while Victor Oladipo and Collin Sexton are questionable to play.
So yeah, totally straight forward. You can probably just build a lineup while eating breakfast and leave it because nothing will change.
Do not actualy do that.
Building our Core
While the Miami news may dominate headlines today, let’s be clear – the most important news of the day is in Houston because if John Wall/Eric Gordon are out – you start any and all builds with James Harden ($10.8K).
Harden’s price has come down below $11K on DraftKings as a result of a series of floor games that coincided with the return of John Wall and company to the Rockets lineup. Now, take those players off the court and we are looking at the potential 70-80 point effort that Harden put up against Portland the day after Christmas.
Harden at this price point has an easy decision flow chart – if Wall is in, he is too expensive, if Wall is out (plus Gordon and House) – well, Harden is player #1 in my builds.
Where Harden is news dependent, we have a star like Kevin Durant ($9.4K) who we know will be without his secondary star in Kyrie Irving again versus Denver. Against OKC just a few days ago, KD returned and we saw exactly the kind of superstar metrics we demand in DFS – a 36% usage rate and 55.6 DK points per 36.
I would tell you Durant needs to be player #1 in your build but Harden gets that nod pending news – either way – this far too cheap price tag on Durant needs to be enforced because we won’t (or should not) see hum under $10K for long.
Last but not least is Big Honey – Nikola Jokic ($11K) – who gets a massive pace up match-up against Brooklyn and becomes the ideal run back with KD or could become a “luxury” spend up that gets overlooked with Harden potentially as “the man” tonight.
If we play out the scenario where Harden is playing solo in Houston, the other similarly high-priced stars will plummet in ownership and I think that is where we have the potential to get Joker under the radar. Listen, the spot for him is as good as you could ask for because of the high-paced match-up and there is simply no way Jarrett Allen/DeAndre Jordan are going to be able to stay with him in transition or as he pulls away from the basket.
Getting all three stars may seem like a pipe dream – but it leaves you with $3.7K per player for the rest of your build and if there was ever a slate to stretch it – this may be the one.
All the Scrubs!
Now, writing this value section before 7AM EST is not exactly ideal because the news can and will change where we look – but I think what the slate will dictate (assuming Miami and Philly can play) – is that we will have more value than we know what to do with.
Rather than try and “pick” at this point – I am going to try and give you a “pool” of players we can start to think through with our Custom Projections being the best place later in the day to check against.
- Miami – literally any and everyone here is going to be in play. Like, literally – EVERY. SINGLE. ACTIVE. PLAYER. You could end up getting multiple $3K punts with paths to minutes here which is just unheard of.
- Philly – If Simmons is back AND Embiid plays, the fringe players look a lot less appealing but if only one “star” from Philly plays, I could see going back to the well here with Dakota Mathias ($3.9K) being my favorite pure value if he is going to play 35+ minutes again!
- Cavs – If Sexton/Garland are out again – Isaac Okoro ($3.4K) is in line for another 35+ minutes and 6-7x demonstrated upside. Yogi Ferrell ($3K) ran the backup PG with Sexton scratched and at minimum priced put up 18 DK points (or 6X) in his first game in The Land.
- Spurs – With DeRozan already ruled out, it could give Trey Lyles ($3.3K) the start again after playing 35 minutes and racking up 21 DK points.
- Rockets – If Wall/Gordon sit – the only other player besides Harden over $5K on DK is Christian Wood – another spot where you can get multiple starters at $3K-$4K price tags.
- Indy – If Vicor Oladipo sits – Aaron Holiday ($3.3K) is viable again as he racked up 18 DK points in 22 minutes the only other game Dipo sat this year
What I am hoping this shows you is HOW MANY paths we could have for value tonight and that once again will dictate the slate for me. We are not going to get multiple minimum priced starters often with 30 minute paths – we take those as free squares, jam in our studs and move on!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Watch. The. News.
Today is going to be chaos and if you are not in our Discord – TODAY IS THE DAY. We are going to need to stay on top of news and react accordingly because if we miss something, it could mean the difference between cashing or not.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
