Brian Tulloch 
Happy Sunday Funday my NBA DFS friends as we get set for another day of hoops as we watch some NFL Playoffs – seriously, what could be better?
Well glad you asked!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We have another split slate today in the NBA with a two game afternoon slate and a four game main slate and while the early slate has an interesting Mavs/Bulls contest, the lack of value makes building lineups on that slate quite gross, so my focus will be on the 7 PM EST four game main slate.
This main slate sets up really nicely here tonight as I think we have some clear paths to value which will allow us to pay up for the core stars we need to have in our builds.
Working a bit backwards – I think you can plug and play the “clear” value today with two guys that remain far too cheap despite their expanded starting roles in Isiah Roby ($4.3K) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4.9K).
Both Adam and Mitch wrote up Roby so I am not going to wax poetic on him with Al Horford sidelined, but I do wonder if folks will shy away from NAW after his dud last game.
With Lonzo Ball still sidelined, NAW will get the start at PG and I am totally willing to write-off last game’s 20-minute performance due solely to foul trouble. NAW picked up 3 fouls in the first half and got 2 more within the first 3 minutes of the second half which kept him on the bench until the final 8 minutes of the game. The foul trouble led to less court time and fantasy production – it is that simple – there is no reason not to go back to him here against a Kings team that plays at a top 10 pace and is dead last in defensive rating across the NBA thus far.
By plugging in the value noted above, it will be easy to afford Nikola Jokic ($11.2K) today and on a short slate, I am always going to prioritize the highest raw points plays but my interest in this Nuggets/Jazz game goes FAR beyond just The Joker.
For the first time since their epic bubble battles – we get to see Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell face off against each other again! Over that 7 game series, Murray averaged 52 DK points per game while Mitchell averaged 53 DK points per game.
Mitchell continues to be a usage dominant player, with a 32% usage rate this season that ranks among the top 10 in the league and we are seeing Murray, after a slow start, ramp up his usage the last two games to near 29%.
What you see with both players is nightly 20 point shot volume and both players have demonstrated upside that far exceeds their $7K-$8K price points on DK.
For me – building a five man core of Joker-Murray-Mitchell-Roby-NAW – gives me a three-headed monster of ceiling performances and high PP/$ value and still leaves me with just under $5K for the last three spots in my builds which gives me multiple paths on this short slate.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
On a nightly basis, my strategy remains very consistent on DraftKings as I want to get 3-4 ceiling stars in my builds on every single slate. It is those stars that dictate the cash lines and provide the upside to win tournaments and on a short slate that is even more critical.
I think going Nikola Jokic with 1-2 value pieces is a near non-negotiable starting point on this slate as his 60-70 DK point raw upside sets him apart on this slate as a building block and we already can see easy paths to value with guys like Roby and NAW.
After that, the five-man build you make is where you are going to win or lose this slate but again you need to focus on getting 2-3 high ceiling plays to pair with him and that is where Mitchell/Murray come in. You have a realistic path here to get 180+ DK points with ceiling games from this trio in a mini-game stack.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
