Brian Tulloch 
Happy Sunday my NBA DFS family – we get a split slate and small slate day as we have 2 early games and just a 4 game Main Slate to dive into on this Sunday Funday – but that does not mean we cannot attack it and build our bankroll!
Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
The main slate today is simple – well, at least in terms of which game to attack – it all starts and ends with Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards.
This game is a DFS goldmine – a massive 245+ total, 20 points higher than any other game, featuring the highest projected pace and two teams that believe defense is optional.
The Wizards rank as the third worst defensive team in the NBA this season while Brooklyn ranks bottom three over the last 10 games, coinciding with the James Harden trade.
We have a high total, high pace, and no defense – all-around some serious star power – so, getting this game right is the most critical aspect of today.
The tricky part in this game is that we lack the value we need to stack the stars here and so it means we have to be strategic in which big spends we use from this game.
Now if James Harden ($10.6K) were to miss this game, officially questionable with a thigh injury, it would open up a much clearer path for the Brooklyn side of this game. Obviously, Harden being out would be a huge boost to the ceiling of both Kyrie Irving ($9.3K) and Kevin Durant ($10.1K) and it would open up some fringe value as it did on Friday Night with guys like Bruce Brown and TLC, who both remain under $4K.
The Wizards side has the obvious star power duo in Bradley Beal ($10.2K) and Russell Westbrook ($9K). The tricky part with Washington is that they are starting to get back to full healthy so the mid-range and fringe plays become far more risky especially as many of them (Rui, Bertans etc) are coming off a long COVID related lay-off.
Unfortunately, just clicking on Beal/Westbrook and Durant/Irving is not possible today – like DraftKings made it mathematically impossible. So how do you prioritize the stars here.
For me, the two pieces I am locked in on are Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Durant has been the highest FP/M piece for the Nets with Harden off the court and with his price ticked down while Irving has ticked up – I think paying the slight premium for KD is the best use of our salary.
Westbrook at $9K is just too cheap – he played 27 minutes last game and that was with him being ejected with 10 minutes remaining so the 30+ minutes seem like a lock here tonight.
The question of the third star is really where you need to make a tough choice – is it Beal or Kyrie OR even Harden if he does play?
I will say – I find myself landing on Bradley Beal ($10.2K) despite the inflated price really as it relates to how I want to attack the Wizards. With the Wizards fringe players all getting healthy and splitting minutes, I feel like your throwing darts and hoping you hit your secondary Washington exposure correctly. Instead – can we just take the approach of going with Westbrook AND Beal and getting essentially all the usage and fantasy production? This duo combined for 105 DK points in their only other meeting versus Brooklyn this season so the ceiling is obvious.
Now this means we have to fade a second Brooklyn star – but I would argue, we have more paths to attack with the secondary options on the Nets especially if Harden does sit.
Joe Harris ($5.5K) is the option I am most interested in running alongside Durant as his ability to spread the floor and rack up three-points could give him a ceiling path tonight. The Wizards rank 22 out of 30 NBA teams this season in 3P% allowed and rank as the second-worst team overall in FG% allowed. Harris has the ability to get to 6X value with his shooting alone ( he hit 33 DK points against Miami just a few days ago on 7 threes made) and so if he has that kind of efficiency tonight and gets you ANY peripheral upside – you could get a GPP game changer.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
The biggest thing we need to watch today is the status of James Harden and Joel Embiid.
Harden missing this game would give a massive boost to the fringe Nets like Harris, Bruce Brown and TLC. Embiid being out means we could get serious Center value with Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley both under $4K.
The other spot we may get for value is in Minnesota with KAT out once again and Naz Reid questionable. The lack of big men against a massive Cavs frontcourt means that guys like Ed Davis and Jaden McDaniels will be pushed to take on more minutes at $3K price points. Oh and by the way – it is McDaniels birthday today – so you know what to do!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
