Gary Gustafson 
Happy Tuesday my NBA DFS family – after a wild Monday NBA slate with a late game postponment, let’s hope we can get a but more normalcy on this six game Tuesday Night slate. I will say, big kudos to FanDuel and DraftKings for how they handled the Nuggets/Pistons PPD in refunding entry fees to those impacted – it is a great thing for the DFS industry when they put the customer first!
Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this six-game slate, there are a few things right off the top that jump out to me. First, the Utah/Detroit game is going to be a COVID risk we need to keep our eye on, and with it being one of only 2 late night games, your options to swap will be limited IF we were to get another late postpone.
Secondly, we have two MONSTER game environments in Portland/Washington and Brooklyn/LA Clippers that have game totals pushing near 250 and rightfully so – will dominate the headlines and ownership.
Lastly, we have some injury news that we already know that is going to open up multiple starters tonight with $3K price tags and those value plays are going to be critical to get the pay ups we will need.
So where do we start?
We have spent a lot of time here at Win Daily the last few weeks attacking the Brooklyn Nets post the James Harden trade as they rank as the 3rd worst defensive team in the last 10 games with the #1 offensive rating.
It is hard for me to argue that the starting point tonight should be anything other than the Nets and Clippers – as we have seen this game environment result in ceiling DFS scores repeatedly. A national TV game with a near 250 total on a short slate where we have multiple games we can cross off – makes me very eager to plant my flag and game stack this spot!
The Clippers side feels simply far too cheap – Kawhi Leonard ($9.2K) and Paul George ($8.9K) have a superstar ceiling but they are priced at second-tier levels tonight. We just saw a similar 1-2 punch in Washington combine for 123+ DK points against this Nets “defense” – so there is serious 6-7x profit potential on this Clippers side.
One other option when attacking the Clippers would be to take just one star or none and instead attack the mid-range from LA with Serge Ibaka ($6K), Reggie Jackson ($5.1K), Nicolas Batum ($5.2K), Marcus Morris ($4.7K) and Lou Williams ($4.5K).
This was a strategy I outlined on Sunday with the Nets. If you are going to take the position of fading a star in a high scoring game, it makes sense to take the direct leverage.
So if you assume for example that guys like Jackson/Lou Will etc. have ceiling games that will likely come at the expense of guys like PG13 or Kawhi – so there is a clear strategic pivot we can lay out here.
The data supports this as well – as players like Jackson and Williams correlate negatively with Kawhi/PG13 and it makes all the sense in the world. Jackson and Lou Will are scoring dependent players and so if they are shooting the ball, it means Kawhi/PG13 are not. We took this approach on Sunday using Joe Harris instead of Kyrie and it worked out really well – can we take the same thing on the Clippers tonight?
The Nets are expected to be fully healthy tonight in regards to their Big 3 – and we have seen thus far that the usage has been heavily focused on Kevin Durant ($10.1K) and Kyrie Irving ($8.8K) when this threesome has shared the court.
However the last game this trio was on the court together, we did see a slight shift between Kyrie and James Harden ($10.9K) where The Beard took 4% more usage than Kyrie as the primary playmaker.
The pricing difference is really staggering when you look at the three so my guess is that the popular approach would be to take one of KD/Harden and pair them with the far cheaper Kyrie.
The fact that Patrick Beverley is out for this game means you take one of the best on-ball defenders off the court for LA and replace them with one of the worst in Reggie Jackson. Getting one of Harden or Kyrie tonight is a must for me – and I am pairing them 100% with Kevin Durant.
What I love about this game is you have multiple paths to stacking it up. You can go heavy stars and scrubs, you can mix and match or use the Clippers mid-range to get your exposure.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
We have may 6 games on this NBA DFS slate tonight but frankly, those games exist in my mind only to find value and to siphon ownership away from the spots I really want to attack.
The Clippers/Nets game is my priority here tonight and I urge you to make it yours as well.
I absolutely LOVE the idea tonight of building around Durant and Harden and then running it back with the Clippers mid-range – Ibaka, Jackson and Williams.
That build leaves you with $4.5K per player for the rest of your build on DK so you really are not having to dumpster dive too far and can build a bit more balance without sacrificing upside.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
