Gary Gustafson 
Happy Monday my NBA DFS family! With Super Bowl Sunday in the rearview mirror and baseball still months away, we turn our immediate attention to sports like the NBA for our fantasy sports fix!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We get a perfectly sized 8 game NBA DFS slate here on Monday and once again the injury news is going to dominate our decision-making. We have big stars that could sit including Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, D’Angelo Russell, Jamal Murray, Lauri Markannen, Devonte Graham, and oh joy – once again we get a chalk Oklahoma City Thunder value night!
One thing that is interesting when looking at this slate is the timing of the games. The slate locks at 7PM EST with the Hornets and Rockets, but then we have no other games until 8PM EST where 4 games tip-off in that hour and the final 3 games tipping off at 9PM EST or later.
I bring that up because with so much injury news, there is a very real chance we do not have some of the biggest prior to the 7 PM EST lock.
So then the question is – how much exposure do you want to lock into Houston-Charlotte as the stand-alone “early game?”
This is a great game environment to attack – don’t get me wrong – but remember, if you are going to use plays from this game – lock them into specific positions (PG, SG etc.) on DraftKings and leave yourself flexibility for later on.
Now, one thing to keep an eye on for that early game is going to be ownership. Will folks overload on that game because it will be one of the few games with confirmed lineups prior to lock? Or will it be largely ignored where people simply fade the game and act as if this is a 7 game slate where lock is at 8PM EST?
In general, this feels like a slate where ownership could dictate a ton of decisions in how we attack tournaments. We have had two slates already where OKC was similarly short-handed, the value was insanely chalky and guess what – it hit – as the optimal builds have had 2,3 and even 4 Thunder in each of these kinds of slates.
Friday Night as an example, the winning $100K lineup in the big DK GPP, had FOUR Thunder in it – Horford, Roby, Bazley, and Diallo. The ownership on that group – 70% Diallo, 40% Bazley, 45% Roby and 23% Horford.
By and large, chalk is chalk for good reason and when it hits – it can be optimal – as OKC has shown here in recent days. However, think about the leverage you could get as a GPP player when and if this chalk busts.
As a tournament player, ownership is going to be a heavy decision point for me on this slate because I think there are a ton of good spots we can attack.
As I mentioned above – we also have a ton of “new news” to watch for today and if you follow Picks and Pivots, you know I am a huge believer that people chase the news of the day.
Now, again – chalk is chalk for a reason. AD is out and LeBron is a far better and arguably under-priced play. Same thing with Bradley Beal with Westbrook sits.
However we see this time and time again – the news hits and everyone reacts the same way – they lock in the “next man up” as if they are the only ones who thought of it. Then lock hits and we go wow – I cannot believe on an 8 game slate Player X is THIS chalky.
Ownership matters – and on slates like tonight, I think it becomes the key to our decision making process.
Finding Our Pivots – Off the Wall Edition:
First and foremost, any time I build a NBA DFS lineup – I want to have someone in my lineup that I think is capable of breaking the slate – especially on slates like this with so much value, getting that superstar with 70-80 ceiling potential is critical.
I also want to find a game with projected high totals, fast-paced environments and poor defense, and all that leads me to a game in the Mavericks/TWolves.
It all starts with Luka Doncic ($11K), fresh off a 70 DK point effort against the Golden State Warriors but the interest in this game overall is much more than just Luka or bust.
We have talked alot here about how bad the Brooklyn Nets defense has been since the big Harden trade we and know teams like the Wizards and Blazers have been bottom feeders all year on the defensive end – but did you know that no team over the last 10 games has been worse defensively than the Dallas Mavericks?
Literally dead last.
In that 10 game stretch they are giving up 16 three-pointers per game (2nd most) with a 3P% of 42.5% which is dead last in the NBA. They also rank 4th worst in the league during that time in rebounds allowed per game at 47.4 while allowing opposing teams to shoot 49.4% from the floor which is 2nd worst in that time.
So literally every single aspect of Dallas’ defense right now is hemorrhaging production to opponents and tonight the beneficiary is the Minnesota Timberwolves who have just two players priced above $7K – both of whom carry injury tags tonight – Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell.
Obviously if either player is able to suit up tonight, they would be elite plays but it seems like D-Russ is far more likely to play than KAT and with the Dallas defense giving up so many points to opposing 3 point shooters right now – you could be looking at a ceiling game for Russell at only $7.3K on DK.
Naz Reid ($6K) gets to attack a Dallas interior right now that has given up 4 50+ DraftKings points games to opposing Centers in the last 10 games including 60+ point affairs to Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic.
Alongside Reid – we can attach a $6K range here on DK with guys like Malik Beasley and Anthony Edwards – who at $6.7K and $6.1K respectively could offer you cost-effective mid-range plays in place of Russell if he sits OR unowned stacking partners alongside D-Russ.
Russell/Reid are my priority plays with Edwards being my third favorite spot but if we get word Russell is out, I think simply slide Beasley in place of him for your TWolves exposure.
Now while Dallas has been abysmal on the glass, Minnesota has actually been even worse – giving up 48 rebounds per game the last 10 games which is dead last in the league. Not only that – Minnesota is giving up 8 steals and 7 blocks per game in that time – both marks that rank among the bottom 5 in the NBA in this recent run. Minnesota is also allowing 27 FTA per game which is the 2nd worst mark in the league.
As you can tell – there are alot of “league worst” metrics defensively for the two teams in this game when you slice and dice the last 10 games.
So while Luka is the premier play, this seems like the ideal get right spot for Kristaps Porzingis ($8.4K). KP’s ceiling cames come in spots where he hits his rebound ceiling with blocks/steals and well – Minnesota’s recent run seems to set him up for success in each of those metrics tonight.
Dallas has also been playing a really tight rotation with the starters lately which pushes fringe plays like Maxi Kleber and Dorrian Finney-Smith into consideration as they both played 30+ minutes last game and sit in the mid $4K range on DK.
Of the 8 games on this slate, it sits 4th in total and in projected pace – and outside of the D-Russ injury, it won’t be a spot that news pushes people to. If this game is overlooked, I think it could be a GPP difference-maker this evening.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate is a lot of wait and see – we have a TON of news to sort out and frankly, it is one of those slates where if you cannot be in front of a computer up to lock, you may want to scale back or sit out.
My biggest advice – let others over react to new news today – because if we can get elite plays at low ownership, then it makes all the sense in the world to zig when the field zags.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
