Gary Gustafson 
Happy Monday my NBA DFS family and friends – we are back to the weekly NBA grind after a big weekend of sports and we kick it off with a strong seven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel to build around.
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this 7 game NBA DFS slate on Monday, you are likely going to notice something quite quickly – the injury tags that accompany most of the big name players in the pool.
With Kevin Durant, Victor Oladipo, and Mike Conley already ruled out and questionable tags for the likes of Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Russell Westbrook – well, you start to see where this slate has the potential to end up.
If the news breaks the right way, you are going to get boatloads of value, with a clear select few stars to pay for and all the salary to do so as a result of the aforementioned value. Easy peasy kids.
One other thing that I think is a critical point tonight logistically – of the 7 games on this slate, 3 of them start from 7-7:30 PM EST while the remaining 4 all start at 9 PM EST or later. I bring that up because we may need to stay flexible with our builds to adjust for late night news.
Where do we start?
Let’s work our way chronologically tonight as we build our lineups – using the early game core plays first in our builds – locking them into specific spots in our DK builds (PG, SG etc versus G,F, UTIL) so that we can keep the flexibility for later in the evening.
The Rockets/Wizards game is going to be stop #1 as one of the premier game environments on the slate – a high total, fast pace and a ton of mid-range plays to choose from. Now tack on the fact we already know the Rockets are without Oladipo/Wood and the Wizards may sit Westbrook on the B2B – and well, it becomes an ideal PP/$ value spot.
At this point in the season, we know that much of the success as it relates to NBA DFS is taking advantage of price points that are not reflective of their roles. Bradley Beal ($8.9K) under $9K with Westbrook sidelined, is one of those spots.
Beal has played 6 games this season with Westbrook off the court, averaging 56 DK points per game (6.3x value at tonight’s price), and shooting the ball 26 times per game in those outings. To get this kind of consistent ceiling in similar game types, at a rare discount DFS price, makes this an easy building block tonight and one that ownership will not sway my decision making.
The other early game stop where we get a superstar at a discount is Damontas Sabonis ($9.1K) against the Chicago Bulls. Sabonis faced the Bulls earlier this season and dropped a 55 DK point triple-double and with the BUlls being
The next spot for stars moves to the final game of the night with the Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings.
Not only do we get to attack the Nets in a simplified manner with Durant sidelined, but we get to do so in a high pace game with two teams that rank among the 5 worst defensive teams in the league the last 15 games.
No Durant means all the James Harden ($10.7K) and Kyrie Irving ($9K) and while Harden requires a premium to be paid, I would argue that Kyrie is much like Mr. Beal – far too cheap.
In the last three games that Durant has sat and Harden has played, Kyrie has put up 45, 50, and 58 DK points and none of those games were against defenses that rank as poorly as the Kings do tonight. As much as I love Harden here and I have no issue paying for him – Kyrie may be the better PP/$ play.
On the other side of this game, speaking of too cheap – De’Aaron Fox ($8.8K) – is the ideal run back on the Kings side of this game that can attack the worst part of the Nets defense statistically.
To me this five-man star core is where you start your builds tonight and jamming in four of these plays is a path that is easily achievable with the projected value we have.
Finding the value
The first big piece of news we need tonight is Joel Embiid – who will take on the Utah Jazz at 9 PM EST. If Embiid sits, it changes the entire slate and gives us a clear path to stars and scrubs and frankly, he is the reason I think you need to back load builds in the case we do not have his confirmation prior to 7 PM EST lock.
The last two games that Embiid sat – we saw Tony Bradley ($3K) get a big boost in minutes, playing 23 minutes off the bench and 17 minutes in a start against Indiana. Bradley dropped 25 DK points off the bench and got just 10 as a starter and let’s not act like this spot against Rudy Gobert is ideal – but at $3K, I do not ask questions. We talk about this all the time – but playing those punts allows me the path to the stars and that is what matters.
Dwight Howard ($3.6K) drew the start against the Pistons but actually did his best work off the bench against the Pacers second unit where he played 25 minutes and put up 35 DK points. If he comes off the bench, you could argue he gets the better spot against the Jazz second unit.
The fringe Sixers all get a nice boost here any time Embiid is out and the fact that Shake Milton is also sidelined adds to the appeal here. Matisse Thybulle ($3.1K) already has a 15-20 minute role with Embiid but we saw against the Pacers he played 25 minutes and racked up 25 DK points on the second unit.
It is always “easier” to focus on the punt starters and those guys tend to be the ones who draw the ownership, but do not overlook the secondary plays here like Thybulle who get essentially the same boost.
Now if the Sixers value does not materialize, remember we have pivots with 3 games starting after BUT do not just simply assume this value is “locked” and you need to keep your roster flexible.
For example – if you opt to use Sabonis – my recommendation is to use him at Center and then put Bradley/Howard at Utility. I say this because if you put Bradley/Howard at Center and then Embiid gets ruled in – you are going to be extremely limited in your pivot options at Center only at DK.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate to me is very clear – we need to anchor to four studs on a night where the value will dictate this kind of build. Assuming the stars sit as we outlined, you need to take a path of extreme Stars and Scrubs because those stars that remain can set the cash line on their own.
So go ahead and lock in four stars – grab the value we already have, adjust as we get more or “new” value, and most importantly – stay flexible with this slate being incredibly back-loaded.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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