Christopher Day 
Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems is filled with star power – but will we get the value necessary to plug them in? It’s NBA DFS, so you know the answer is yes – early spots look to point to a thin Denver rotation, as well as typical OKC chalk over the past week, so let’s get to it!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Kyrie Irving ($9,900 FD / $9,100 DK)
Right back to the well with one of Brooklyn’s finest. In yesterday’s NBA writeup, I pointed out that Kyrie has relinquished the primary ball handling duties to James Harden, but in fact still has a higher usage rate than his backcourt partner and will be relied upon as the primary scorer. Check the box score from last night, come back to re-read this, and see if you want to play Kyrie tonight.
Damian Lillard ($9,500 FD / $9,700 DK)
While OKC are yet again big underdogs, they’ll find a way to keep this one close. Remember what I said so about Giannis and the Bucks and OKC went on to win OUTRIGHT? Giannis put up 70+ DK that night because of how competitive the game was, and Dame is in the same spot here tonight. Sporting a 34.5% usage rate since McCollum went down with injury, Dame has also been averaging 21 FGA per game in that span, including 11 three-point attempts per game. With OKC allowing over 37 three-point attempts on a nightly basis due to the lack of perimeter defense without George Hill, Dame will chuck up 10+ tonight en route to 30+ raw points in an elite game environment that sees the Blazers in a rare pace-up spot.
Also Consider:
- Chris Paul ($7,800 FD / $7,800 DK)
- Jamal Murray ($6,500 FD / $7,200 DK)
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
From yesterday’s NBA writeup:
“We already mentioned how Kyrie will be the primary scorer for Brooklyn tonight, but there is no denying that Harden can break tonight’s NBA slate. The usage is there for him to carry the ball for 30+ minutes, even with Kyrie stealing some possessions, and with how poorly Brooklyn has been rebounding, Harden averages over 8 RPG in addition to his 11.6 APG since arriving to the Nets. In a fast-paced game, look for Harden to push the transition game and contribute on a ton of buckets.”
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Devin Booker ($8,300 FD / $8,300 DK)
Ah, it’s nice to finally see the Devin Booker I anticipated on seeing this season in our preseason NBA show. Sporting a 34.1% usage rate in his past four games, Booker has dropped 32.3/5/5.3 during the same span on a ridiculous 56.3% shooting on 21.8 FGA per game – the sheer volume is already crazy to see, but shooting 56.3% from the field and 47.6% from deep? Versus Brooklyn’s “defense” tonight at this price? C’mon now
Also Consider:
- Fred VanVleet ($7,500 FD / $8,200 DK)
Small Forwards
LeBron James ($10,500 FD / $10,100 DK)
Zero-Dark-23 mode officially activated – ok, maybe not to the extent that LeBron does in the NBA playoffs considering he has since retired the saying in the bubble, but it’s still time for the King to show that he is still the best player in the league. In five games without AD this season, LeBron has a 31.2% usage rate and a 24.2/8.6/8.2 scoring line on 47.4% shooting. Not only will he have his way with Ricky Rubio or whomever is guarding him, but he can facilitate like no other in the game, and he will have a field day on one of the worst defenses in the league.
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,500 FD / $5,800 DK)
We were off MPJ last game due to uncertainty about what the Nuggets rotation would look like and his tough matchup, but with a softer Boston defense on the wings tonight and an extremely thin Denver rotation, MPJ is certainly back in play. The key here is not that he is likely lining up on Jayson Tatum, but rather when he is not – if you review the Celtics rotation as of late, Tatum comes off in the middle of the first quarter and re-enters the lineup in the second, only to come back out halfway through the second. Guess when MPJ draws the most minutes for the Nuggets? Connect the dots – MPJ isn’t facing Tatum a ton, rather, he is facing the likes of Grant Williams. Giddy up.
Also Consider:
- Norman Powell ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)
- Kenrich Williams ($5,200 FD / $5,300 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
I would scream this from the highest rooftop in the NBA DFS community for people to understand that the Raptors cannot guard the interior! It has gotten so bad that not only are they in talks to acquire Andre Drummond, but they actually have been switching Fred VanVleet, a 6’0’’ guard, onto opposing centers. Who is guarding Giannis tonight? The answer is absolutely no one. Sporting a 32% usage rate in his last three, the back-to-back NBA MVP is averaging 33.3/14.3/7 during that span, including shooting 60.7% from the field on 20+ FGA per game.
Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
The price is a tag high for my liking on FD, and with Kyle Kuzma being much cheaper there than he is on DK, I’ll likely be pairing the latter with Giannis. Nonetheless, Tatum makes for an intriguing target on DK in a stack with Nikola Jokic. I touched on the Celtics rotation earlier in the MPJ blurb, but to elaborate a bit more, the Celtics are not confident in their secondary ball handlers with the absence of Marcus Smart from the lineup; Pritchard plays better off the ball, Jeff Teague is in and out of the rotation, and fringe guards since as NeSmith and Edwards just can’t get it done. Enter Tatum, who comes off early on, only to run point from the 6-minute mark to close out the first quarter and begin the second quarter. He will be seeing a ton of backup guards in a thin Denver rotation of Jamal Murray on extended minutes, meaning Tatum will be able to build on his 8 APG in the previous two games before his dud versus Washington.
Others to Consider:
- Zion Williamson ($8,300 FD / $8,200 DK)
- Kyle Kuzma ($5,800 FD)
Centers
- Nikola Jokic ($10,600 FD / $10,700 DK)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($7,800 FD / $7,600 DK)
Also Consider:
- Deandre Ayton ($7,000 FD / $7,100 DK)
- Al Horford ($6,900 FD / $7,000 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
