Gary Gustafson 
It is Hump Day my NBA DFS family and friends and we are back with another Picks and Pivots to help you tackle this 10 game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We have a ten game slate here on Wednesday and the amount of injury news on this NBA DFS docket is likely going to mean we get another slate with a plethora of value.
The Denver Nuggets again are going to be the linchpin to this slate, and with their game starting an hour after lock – we have to be prepared that we may not have the news we need. Last night, Denver did not rule Monte Morris out until 45 minutes before lock – if they do that again tonight it will be after the 7PM EST lock.
With that in mind, we need to really determine how much exposure we would want before that game (if any) as 7 of the 10 games are 8PM EST or later – meaning we can take the approach of backloading and waiting on news because Denver is THAT important.
The other spot that is going to be a key for this slate in Oklahoma City as they played with a 9 man rotation but on the tail end of the B2B, could we see someone like Al Horford sit?
What this all means is we are likely to have some serious value, but it may be value we have to wait on – and thus back loading our builds could give us the flexibility we need.
Focus on the Stars:
On yesterday’s 6 game slate, we had so much value open with the injury to Monte Morris and Kyrie Irving that it made jamming in multiple stars an easy path – and tonight with a much larger player pool, going in with the same mentality will be critical.
Nikola Jokic ($11K) is the highest-priced player on the slate and boy oh boy – if the Nuggets remain this short-handed against the worst defense in the league in Washington, even $11K may not be enough for Joker. We all know the usage is going to flow through Joker, the 60+ DK point floor feels like a lock and frankly on a slate with this much value, the reason you would use it is to ensure you have Jokic, it is that simple.
The next star on my radar is Damian Lillard ($10.3K) who gets an amazing spot against the New Orleans Pelicans. Take a look at what I wrote yesterday about this same spot for Ja Morant.
Let’s start first with how to attack New Orleans. Over the last 10 games, the Pelicans are giving up the most three-pointers made per game at 17, allowing 41 3PA’s per game which is the third most while also giving up the most assists per game in the NBA.
Morant went out last night and dropped 46 DK points in this same match-up and that was with just one three pointer made. Now flip to Dame – did you know only Steph Curry is averaging more 3PA and 3PM over the last 15 games than Mr. Lillard?
So we get a defense that gives up ceiling games to PG’s and especially those with the ability to hit 3’s. I think we found Stud #2 to lock in alongside the Joker.
With the value we are projecting to get, I think a third star is absolutely viable here tonight – and the question becomes which one. I think you can make a strong case for a runback of Joker with Bradley Beal ($9.8K) in this Denver/Washington game.
With Denver being down multiple starters on the tail end of a B2B, we can expect their defensive rating to dip. We saw it last night that they gave up a 114 defensive rating which is a slight drop from their season long 111 mark. Taking Gary Harris off the court means you are taking one of the better on ball defenders off the court for Denver and that gives Beal a path to a ceiling game. Having Beal and Joker keep this game close is critical to getting the ceiling games from both in a game with the highest total on the slate.
Finding the Value:
Now I could just be lazy here and tell you – wait for the model to give you the value.
The truth is, that is really the right answer and one that worked well last night. Go back and look at what it gave you – with 7 guys projected for 6x+ value including Robert Williams, Facundo Campazzo, and Jared Vanderbilt who all hit and exceeded those projections.
Tonight, I think we end up seeing a similar path and frankly, could see similar names since Williams and Campazzo remain at $3.1K and $3.3K respectively. If Theis and Monte are out again – well, why get cute?
Now, I know many of you may look back and last night and say – well, Brian you know who else was in the model for 6X value? JaMychal Green, Michael Porter Jr. and Zeke Nnaji.
That trio combined for a gross 32 DK points – snowflakes galore!
But here is the part where I tell you trust process over results and as Ghost has said “The Model can’t shoot the ball.”
If you are not interested in Michael Porter Jr. ($6.2K) again tonight – well, you are letting recency cloud your judgement. You think MPJ is going 0-8 from the floor again? You think he is going 0-5 again from deep? He had 7 boards and 3 assists and so if that shot is falling – well, you are going to be really mad you faded.
Same think with JaMychael Green ($4.7K). You think he is going 1 for 7 again? You are not interested in a player who has a 30 minute path against Washington with a short-handed roster?
Let me remind you of something my friends.
Remember a few days ago when the Houston Rockets were short-handed and played the Wizards and we scoffed at the fact that optimals/projections were screaming to play 3,4 and 5 Rockets?
Well, how did that work out? Our friends at Statmuse can show, it worked out pretty darn well.
So before you go and write off MPJ, Green or even NNaji. Remember what short-handed rosters can do against a league worst defense.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Slates dictate plays. Players do not dictate slates.
When a slate like this comes around and you see all the paths for value, you know that is defining a path where multiple stars become an outright requirement.
When the value is not there, we play the mid-range. When the value is there – we go Stars and Scrubs.
On this 10 game slate, we have value and we have it likely in droves and that means prioritizing the stars like Jokic, Dame, and Beal. And it means prioritizing them TOGETHER. Lock in all 3 stars, tack on the punt “du jour” like Mr. Campazzo, and well my friends, the Core 4 writes itself.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
