Keith Kavanaugh 
NHL Betting Picks Thursday 2/18
Hey everyone! My name is Keith and I’ve been betting on hockey the last few years. Finally getting the opportunity to post my picks here and describe some rationale behind my decisions. I visualize the Moneyline and Puckline profits and Over/Under Win% throughout the year, ensemble a few public win probability models to seek edges, and incorporate advanced stats and special teams (Power Play and Penalty Kill) advantages to make my picks. Starting goalies is also a huge factor in finding value with betting lines, but unfortunately, those sometimes don’t get announced until 20 minutes before the game. Let’s get started with my NHL Betting Picks Thursday 2/18!
Here is my visualization tracking profits (assumption 1 unit bet on each) and Over Win% through 2/18:
For today’s games lets look at the Win Probabilities and compare them with the DraftKings ML (as of 10:30am):
A couple of slight edges on underdogs and a big edge on the Senators, who have looked competent against the Maple Leafs in their last two games. Can’t pull the trigger on that though as they are due for a regression.
My picks
Coyotes ML -154: The Coyotes just played 7 (!!) straight games against the Blues going 4-3. Going against much lesser competition in LA this is a reasonable price to play Arizona here.
Rangers +1.5/Islanders +1.5 Parlay -107: The Rangers are one of the least profitable ML teams, but a top 5 profitable PL team. Going against a Flyers team with 6 starters on the COVID list and 3 guys making their NHL debut I like the Rangers to cover here. The Islanders are also a strong PL team and the Penguins have only 2 wins in regulation in 14 games, not to mention they are the least profitable PL team in the league.
Ducks ML +110: The Wild were coming off of an extended COVID pause on Tuesday with a few guys still out of the lineup and looked terrible against a bottom-5 team in the Kings. The Ducks aren’t much better but have elite goaltending in Gibson which we are riding on here.
Capitals/Sabres Under 6.5 -125: The Capitals are one of the luckiest teams at Even Strength scoring a whole goal above expected. The Sabres have scored 1 goal in their last 2 games, although against a stingy Islanders team. No one likes cheering for under but at 6.5 it was too appealing to pass up.
Follow along on twitter @KeithKavJr
Check out today’s NHL Hot Shot article for your DFS breakdown!
