Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back to a Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots as we tackle this 9 game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings and outline our top picks and slate strategy!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this 9 game slate there are a few key things that jump out including the fact that 7 of the 9 games are tipping off within the first hour of lock, which means we have minimal “late-swap” opportunity with only 2 games at the tail end of the night.
Secondly, we have a large slate and a ton of big-time injury news which likely means we have value open through the day. With Russell Westbrook on a B2B and questionable tags for all of Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Lowry, Steph Curry, Harrison Barnes and Jeff Green – there is likely value awaiting us this evening.
I am sure you are all sitting here and waiting – this is Picks and Pivots after all – but how on Earth do you expect me to start anywhere else besides the Nets and Kings tonight?
We get an elite game environment with a slate leading 242 game total with two of the top 10 teams in pace and two of the bottom 4 defensive rated teams in the league. High total, fast pace, no defense – word to your mother.
No Defense in Brooklyn!
No matter how you carve up the metrics this season, the Nets and Kings are going to be common culprits in the high pace and no defense stats across the Association. In NBA DFS – we don’t just attack plays, we attack game environments and there is no better one to go all-in on tonight than this one in Brooklyn.
The Nets will remain without Kevin Durant tonight, and we cannot understate the importance of the Brooklyn injury report – as both TLC and Jeff Green are questionable to play. Brooklyn played one of the tightest rotations of the season against the Clippers last game out with essentially a 7 man rotation and that included Uncle Jeff with a whopping 34 minutes of court time. Take him off and well….you get the idea!
Let’s not bury the lede here- it all starts with James Harden ($10.7K) and Kyrie Irving ($8.8K). Harden remains priced correctly for his role while Kyrie seems to be wildly under-priced every game – the truth is, I want both stars in this kind of game as it has the type of game script that gives them both paths to ceiling.
I also LOVE stacking both Brooklyn guards on slates this size because they tend to be overlooked when it comes to ownership. Adam, Ghost, and I talk about this all the time – but on slates where Kyrie and Harden seem like the obvious path, we tend to get news (looking at you Westbrook) that could push ownership away from them and we get to lock with Brooklyn studs at 10-15% ownership. This was the exact case on Sunday by the way when they played the Clippers. Nobody pays up for Kyrie and Harden despite the fact that they are arguably the best plays on the slate every time Durant remains out.
If Jeff Green is ultimately unable to play with a shoulder injury, De’Andre Jordan ($5.5K) is going to be tasked with all the minutes he can possibly handle. DJ played 32 minutes against the Clippers and dropped 43 DK points alongside Green – if Green is out, DJ is one of the best PP/$ plays on the slate – it is that simple.
The wing guys like Joe Harris ($5.7K) and Bruce Brown ($4.5K) become more fill-ins within a game stack that both have 30+ minute roles in this advantageous game script as well. In fact, the Kings rank 2nd to last in the NBA in 3P% allowed which could spell big trouble if they leave Joe Harris open on the perimeter as the defenses collapse on Harden and Kyrie.
The Nets side of this is likely the “easier” side to figure out – as the Kings rotations are far less predictable but if Harrison Barnes sits again, it could open up some clearer paths to attack Sacramento.
The best part about this Kings team on DraftKings is the pricing – only one player De’Aaron Fox ($8K) – sits above $6.5K on this slate – meaning you can largely stack this team around the pricey Brooklyn back-court without much issue.
Fox is the engine that makes this team move, but the DFS output has been largely muted in recent games. Fox has been held under 40 DK points now in 4 straight games but before that he had flashed the 50-60 DK point upside against Philly and the Clippers – and THAT is the kind of ceiling that we want for GPP’s. It is hard to argue there is a batter bounce back spot for Fox than this – in this kind of fast pace game against arguably the worst defensive back court in the league – if Fox is hitting a ceiling, this is the spot for it.
Speaking of ceiling spots – Richaun Holmes ($5.6K) gets the old – Centers against Nets match-up. The formula for Holmes is simple – it is all about minutes – if he gets 30+ minutes he smashes ceiling – if he plays 20-ish minutes, he gives you snowflakes. This game happened a week ago if you recall, a game that Holmes sat and Hassan Whiteside went looney tunes with 58 DK points off the bench. Centers against the Nets is a thing.
The Kings did not play yesterday, they have Brooklyn today and then 2 days off before they head across the city to take on the Knicks. If they are ever going to run Holmes, this is the kind of “long” road-trip that you would think Coach Walton would allow it.
Alongside Fox and Holmes, I love the idea of targeting one of Buddy Hield or Tyrese Haliburton at similar $6K price tags. Fox and Hield have a positive correlation, whereas Haliburton inversely correlates with Fox which in some ways – makes this decision quite easy for me. Hield is also shooting some serious volume right now – with back-to-back games with double-digit 3PA – however, struggling with inefficiency – making just 5 of the 21 3PA. If Hield is seeing that kind of volume here – the sky is the limit if he gets any sort of efficiency boost against the poor Nets defense.
If Barnes were to sit – keep an eye on DaQuan Jeffries ($3.8K) who got the start on Sunday and played a whopping 40 minutes on his way to 33 DK points. This was a massive outlier if you look at his recent games, but if hes getting that kind of run against Brooklyn for sub 4K its a worthy dice roll.
I am going to throw out a name here as a GPP dart – Jabari Parker ($3K). Yes – THAT Jabari Parker. Parker has seen his first run of the season the last two games, with 16 minutes of court time on Sunday being his season high. This is not a simple case of blowout run either – Parker checked in alongside Haliburton in the first quarter and got 10 minutes of run in the first half against the Bucks.
This is nothing more than speculation but Parker’s role is trending up while role players like Glenn Robinson III is away from the team. If Parker has seen his minutes go from 9 to 16 the last two games – if he gets 20 minutes at 3K against the Nets – hello value city.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
We have 9 games on this NBA DFS slate tonight and as a GPP player – I love that the pool is that big – because while the field looks at this vast player pool and chasing the “new news” – I am going to anchor to the best game on the slate.
The Nets/Kings game checks every box for DFS ceiling. High total (240+), with two teams that rank in the top 10 in pace and bottom 5 in defense. We get stars to build around in Kyrie, Harden and Fox and injuries that push the fringe players in this game into elite potential value plays. Stack it up. Stack it in. Let me begin.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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