Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Friday NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivots where we break down the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays & slate strategy for this nine-game NBA slate!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this nine-game NBA DFS slate on Friday night and as usual, we are met with some injury news that could and will open up the value that becomes a critical building block for our lineups. Last night, on a slate without much value – as Ghost preached “just wait” – and then we got $3K Boban news right before lock that nearly 50% of the field jumped on in GPP’s.
We say it all the time here – value dictates builds – and so tonight we need to watch the status of guys like Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Cody Zeller.
If Bam were to sit, we have a $3K Precious Achiuwa staring at us while Zeller sitting would mean we get all the Bismack Biyombo ($3.3K) we can handle. Now tack on that we already know Al Horford if OUT and that means we can go back to the usual Isiah Roby ($4.9K) value. Plug those 3 potential value plays and you have nearly $8K per player for the rest of your build – Stars and Scrubs here we come!
Building a Core
If we are going to have a path to Stars and Scrubs in our NBA DFS builds tonight, then the question becomes which stars we anchor to.
It is hard not to start any and all-star discussions tonight with the late-night hammer of Lakers-Blazers and the 1v1 National TV match-up between LeBron James ($10.7K) and Damian Lillard ($10.1K). You are getting two stars without their secondary stars in AD and CJ, allowing them to sit among the top 5 in usage and FGA/game over the last 5 games and it is that kind of volume that leads to DFS ceiling.
The third star tonight I have right alongside this duo is Steph Curry ($9.7K) who essentially has all the same check marks – solo star, top 5 usage and FGA per game etc. etc. The big difference for me tonight is the match-up against the Hornets as this is a game that features two teams in the top 5 in pace over the last 10 games and projects to be the fastest pace spot on the slate.
During that stretch, the Hornets are giving up the 2nd most 3’s per game at 16.2 and allowing the second-highest 3P% rate at nearly 42%. Not sure if you have heard – this Curry guy is half decent at 3’s. Over the last 10 games, no player in the league is shooting more 3’s (13.4 to be exact) than Curry and now you take that volume PLUS pace PLUS poor opposing perimeter defense. Oh, and he is under $10K on DraftKings. Lock city.
Depending on the value we get, the question after the “Big 3” is if we can afford a 4th star. Tonight, much like Wednesday, I think we have a 4th star that is simply not priced like one – going right back to a Win Daily favorite in Mason Plumlee ($6.5K).
No team in the NBA over the last 10 games is giving up a higher FG% than the Kings at a whopping 51% and while you would think that kinda efficiency would lead to fewer rebounds, the Kings somehow also rank among the bottom 10 in rebounds allowed per game. Enter PlumDawg – fresh off a near triple-double who has gone for 6.5x value at this price point in 4 of his last 7 games. So we get an under-priced stud, in strong recent form against a defense that is playing amongst the league’s worst. Cool, I am in.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
The value will dictate this slate and exactly HOW we build but there is a clear path to Stars and Scrubs early on.
We can lock in a core of stars anchored around LeBron, Dame and Curry, all while grabbing a mid-range ceiling play like PlumDawg and it leaves us with roughly $3.3K per player for the last four in. Welcome to where injury news can open this slate right up with punts like Precious and Bismack as mentioned earlier and you see the core develop quickly.
Tonight, it is going to be once again about being patient and waiting on value as we have a path to multiple $3K punts in the starting unit and that elite value opens up a night we can anchor to three of the best stars in the NBA and enjoy as LeBron, Dame and Chef Curry carry us across the cash line!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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