Mitchell Thoennes 
Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/27
For tonight’s version of NBA GPP Picks, we will be breaking down a seven-game slate for February 27th. We already have a couple of key players ruled out in Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley. Several other key players are questionable entering today as well in Kristaps Porzingis, Demar DeRozan, and Lamarcus Aldridge.
Injuries are key every night in NBA DFS which makes Discord Chat an important place to be. In there the WinDaily staff and I help you navigate thru all the news and top plays. In this article, I will be using DraftKings pricing to select my favorite point per dollar plays based on my research. We have an interesting slate to evaluate so let’s dive into it!
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving – ($9,300)
We now know that Durant won’t return before the All-Star break. That means Kyrie will continue to soak up at least 30% of the Net’s usage game in and game out. His minutes have been as high as 40 the past three games. That sets up well as Dallas ranks fifth-worst in defensive rating over the past ten games. This game against Dallas should stay much closer than Brooklyn’s game with Orlando. An increased salary should keep the ownership in check for Kyrie compared to other studs on this slate.
Lonzo Ball – ($6,700)
It has now been five straight games that Ball has over 35 minutes. In those games, his lowest production was 32 fantasy points and a 54-fantasy point game in a tough matchup with the Suns. Well, today Ball sees a Spurs team that is allowing the most fantasy points to point guards this season. Ball has increased his three-point shooting percentage immensely and that has resulted in him getting the green light to chuck. We currently are missing this total due to the questionable Spurs, but it should be among the top.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal – ($9,200)
It has now been seven straight games that Beal has seen a usage rate of 31% or more. In those seven games, Beal’s lowest fantasy production was 45 fantasy points. Now he sees an outstanding matchup against Minnesota who has allowed 139 and 133 points in the first two games under their new coach. The Wolves will also be without Malik Beasley as he is serving his suspension. Beal has seen 35 or more minutes in six straight games and a beautiful matchup with Minnesota will allow Beal to flourish.
Jaylen Nowell – ($3,200)
Since the new coach has taken over, we have seen Nowell get some run already playing 19 and 22 minutes. Both of those games saw Nowell shoot ten times. Now we get Malik Beasley off the floor serving his 12-game suspension. When DLO and Beasley are off the floor Nowell is seeing a 24.5% usage rate and .9 fantasy points per minute. Let’s not forget this Washington is the fastest team in the league and Nowell should be blowout proof.
Small Forward
Lonnie Walker – ($4,300)
If we take the Spurs that are ruled out off the floor Walker sees a usage increase of 6.6% bringing his overall usage to 26.1%. Those numbers are with Aldridge and DeRozan on the floor, but both remain questionable. Walker played 33 minutes and shot 16 times last game when all those Spurs were out. He draws a much better matchup against the Pelicans who have been the worst defensive team in the past ten games.
Dwayne Bacon – ($3,600)
With James Ennis being ruled out we have some minutes and potential value in Orlando. His minutes have been down with Aminu’s increasing but that hasn’t stopped Bacon from chucking up shots. Bacon has shot more than ten times in two straight with a usage of 28% over those two games. The matchup isn’t great against Utah but we’ve seen Bacon score 20 or more fantasy points when the minutes are there.
Power Forward
Brandon Ingram – ($8,300)
If I am being honest, I hate power forward today and will likely look for safe floors. I may just have that be the last spot filled in my lineups and let my left-over salary dictate my play. Both Zion and Ingram are eligible for this play, but I liked the savings of Ingram. San Antonio is the sixth fastest team in the league over the past ten games. The average usage of above 27% allows Ingram to keep his floor around 35 fantasy points. Ingram has played 37 minutes or more in three straight games scoring 46 fantasy points or more in two.
Jarred Vanderbilt – ($4,100)
There is nothing flashy here other than a fantasy matchup for Vanderbilt. He did however see 34 minutes last game resulting in a 32-fantasy points night. I typically wouldn’t put that much weight into one game, but it was just the second game under the new coach for the Wolves. The Wolves are a team that is dying to find someone that wants to play defense and that may keep Vanderbilt’s minutes up. He has been just shy of a fantasy point per minute this season and if he is going to play close to 30 minutes this price is extremely cheap.
Center
Nikola Jokic – ($10,900)
The three Nuggets that have been out will remain out for this game. This matchup is amazing for Joker with Oklahoma City allowing the second-most fantasy points to centers in the past ten games. Among those numbers, they have allowed the most rebounds to centers and the third most assists. The usage is the concern as it does fluctuate a ton just in the past two games his difference in usage was 20%. The minutes have been up for Joker this season which has increased his floor to 55 unless he is in a tough matchup. I am smelling a triple-double for the Denver big man tonight against the Thunder.
Joel Embiid – ($10,300)
When Tobias Harris is off the floor Embiid sees a usage increase of 5.3% and is seeing a massive 1.91 fantasy points per minute. That usage increase brings Embiid’s usage to above 40% which is impossible to ignore. There is more good news as Cleveland has been the second-worst defensive team in the past ten games. His minutes are safe as ever playing 35 minutes in seven of the last eight games. There are a plethora of stars to play tonight and Embiid ranks towards the top of them for me.
Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/27
I appreciate you taking the time to read my article NBA GPP Picks 2/27. These six or seven-game slates like this are my favorite to play for NBA. Our highest-scoring game for tonight will be Minnesota vs Washington and Dallas vs Brooklyn. As I’m writing this MIN vs WASH is projected for a 235 total and the Brooklyn total isn’t out yet as we await Porzingis news. When the news breaks and all the dominos fall into place check out the projection models for the top point per dollar value plays. Get over into the MMA section as well and check out my article there and join us in Discord before the fights! Time to set those lineups and make some cash! Good Luck!
