Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to March my NBA DFS friends as we kick off one of the best sports months with a Picks and Picks Monday edition. We are just weeks away from March Madness and the start of the MLB season all while the NBA begins to ramp up its second half of the year and the playoff push!
As a reminder – the NBA All-Star break is going from Friday, March 5 – Tuesday, March, 9 – so we will have a league mandated DFS break coming up in the next few days!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
One of the benefits of taking the weekends off from writing is I can spend more time talking with our subs in Discord and we got into some interesting conversations about NBA DFS and the winning lineups recently. One thing that is becoming is a trend the last week is that chalk is seemingly hitting on a nightly basis and we saw it again on Sunday’s slate as the winning GPP combinations ate the 50%+ ownership on guys like Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum and used the overwhelming value in the late-night Sacramento/Charlotte game to push 350 scores on DraftKings.
I bring this up because as tournament-focused players we are always trying to leverage the chalk and find even the slightest edge. That edge very honestly, has not existed on many of these recent slates – as we have seen chalky Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley types are in optimal builds on two of the most recent slates. Even last night, the Jaylen Brown injury pushed the Celtics to the core of many builds, and eating that chalk was a consistent theme as that Boston duo was used often with the late-night game stack for big scores. Sometimes – eating the chalk is needed – even in tournaments.
Tonight that same undermanned Hornets squad is taking on Portland which could mean more mid-range Charlotte chalk, while we have some big-name injury news to watch with Joel Embiid, Malcolm Brogdon, Tobias Harris, and John Wall all with questionable injury designations. We also have contact tracing going on with the Denver Nuggets with RJ Hampton entering the league’s COVID protocols – and we have seen in some instances where these contact tracing measures lead to games being PPD which would take one of the best games off the slate in the Nuggets/Bulls.
Basically – stay tuned kids.
One thing we are doing here at Win Daily Sports now is having a daily FREE NBA DFS contest on DraftKings and so we are running it back tonight! Tonight – the winner of this FREE Contests – gets a free little giveaway from the Win Daily Sports staff. Make sure you get in early!
Building our NBA DFS Core
I bring up the “when chalk hits” discussion because if we get a similar path tonight where not Gordon Hayward AND Cody Zeller are out – it becomes really difficult not to make the Hornets/Blazers game a late-night hammer core.
Over the last 5 games, Portland ranks 2nd to last in team defense with Charlotte just 2 spots behind them while playing at a top 3 pace. Basically if you liked the Kings-Hornets game last night – you are getting a repeat of this game environment tonight with the potential for the same short-handed rotations.
The big difference here tonight in the opposition is we have a slate-breaking high-dollar star on the other side of this game to run it back with in Damian Lillard ($10.4K). If this game breaks with the injury news as we anticipate – all that Hornets value now becomes the easy path to jam in Dame Time.
We have been all over guards against the Pelicans the last two weeks because of their lack of perimeter defense – well over the last 10 games the Hornets are right on their heels, giving up the second most 3PM per game at 15.3.
Look back a few games ago when Dame took on that New Orleans team, the only team giving up more 3’s per game. Go ahead and look.
OK Fine – I will just tell you. Dame went 7 for 16 from beyond the arc and dropped 79 DK points. Seems good doesn’t it?
So now you take Dame and put him in a fast pace match-up against another team that cannot defend the 3. Yeah buddy – it is Dame Time.
I do think there is the potential for this game to run small which makes Enes Kanter ($7.2K) an intriguing GPP pick that could smash against this Hornets frontcourt OR conversely, be sitting on the bench if Portland plays small ball. The other route than to go would be to play the “small ball” Portland run back with mid-range plays like Robert Covington, Derrick Jones Jr. or Carmelo Anthony who all sit in the $5K range on DK.
The Hornets side is going to be the same cast of characters with LaMelo Ball ($8.7K) being the primary spend up. The Hornets started Bismack Biyombo and Jalen McDaniels last night but that was largely window dressing as they closed the game with Ball, PJ Washington, Miles Bridges, and Malik Monk.
That PJ at the 5 lineup is a similar route to what Charlotte did against Golden State the game before which makes him a strong play at just $6.2K. The guys like Monk/Bridges are really going to players that hinge on Gordon Hayward’s availability. The fact that Hayward went from probable to doubtful to out in a matter of 24 hours is not exactly a strong indication he will be ready on the B2B and frankly – guys like Bridges and Monk remain far too cheap if he is out again tonight
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
What I love about this slate, oddly enough – is the timing of the games and how it could impact ownership.
We have a 7 PM EST start for this 7 game slate and that first Philly/Indy game could really make ownership waves. If Embiid/Tobias/Brogdon are all out – watch the ownership FLY to this early game much like it did for Boston last night.
If ownership flocks to the early games as a result of injury news, that lone late-night hammer in Blazers/Hornets could then get far less ownership than it deserves, and with two bottom 5 defense teams, in a high pace match-up with star power ceiling and mid-range value – the slate may not start until that game begins.
One thing to think through – that game kicks off at 10:30 PM EST – 90 minutes after the rest of the games are played – so if you opt to back load your lineups tonight – just understand you have NO pivot options if you end up waiting and news does not break.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
